Austrian Parliamentary Election - 28/09/2008

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Go Greenies

[Tender Branson]

New IMAS/Krone poll:

ÖVP - 29% (-5)
SPÖ - 24% (-11)
FPÖ - 20% (+9)
Greens - 15% (+4)
Citizen Forum: 5% (+5)
BZÖ - 4% (nc)
Others (LIF, KPÖ, Christian Party) - 3% (-2)

[Tender Branson]

Recently the Liberals announced that Heide Schmidt will once again lead the Party in the upcoming elections. With Heide Schmidt, the Liberals managed to get into parliament in 1994 and in the 1995 snap elections. They have good chances again this year (see the poll below):

Also, Jörg Haider has announced that he is considering the front-runner-post for the BZÖ.

New Ö24/Gallup poll (800 voters, conducted yesterday):

Current parties in parliament only:

ÖVP - 30%
SPÖ - 27%
FPÖ - 19%
Greens - 16%
BZÖ - 5%
Others - 3%

Question incl. 7 parties with Schmidt and Haider as front-runners:

ÖVP - 29%
SPÖ - 25%
FPÖ - 15%
Greens - 14%
BZÖ - 7%
Citizen-Forum - 6%
Liberals - 4%

Good to see the FPÖ losing votes to the Citizen-Forum. My parents for example have indicated that they will switch from voting FPÖ to the Citizen-Forum ...

[Tender Branson]

New Ö24/Gallup Poll:

ÖVP - 26% (-8)
SPÖ - 23% (-12)
FPÖ - 17% (+6)
Greens - 15% (+4)
BZÖ - 7% (+3)
CitizenForum: 7% (+7)
Liberals: 5% (+5)

No majority for a Grand-Coalition ... Double-LOL !!!

ÖVP-FPÖ-BZÖ @ 50% vs. SPÖ-Greens-Liberals-CitizenForum @ 50% ...

Majority for ÖVP-Greens-CitizenForum-Liberals though ...

[Хahar 🤔]

What that poll would entail:

ÖVP: 48
SPÖ: 42
FPÖ: 31
Grünen: 27
BZÖ: 13
Bürgerforum: 13
LIF: 9

Majority: 92

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Why on earth are Gallup still doing polls in European countries [qm]

[Tender Branson]

What that poll would entail:

ÖVP: 48
SPÖ: 42
FPÖ: 31
Grünen: 27
BZÖ: 13
Bürgerforum: 13
LIF: 9

Majority: 92

What ?

...

Austria's Haider to return as party leader

VIENNA, Austria: Right-wing politician Joerg Haider said Saturday that he will return as leader of the slumping breakaway party he formed in 2005.

Haider, now serving as governor of the province of Carinthia, said he would replace Peter Westenthaler, who was convicted of providing false testimony about a brawl involving his former bodyguard.

Haider also said he was considering to become the party's leading candidate for the Sept. 28 elections — but would only vacate his post as governor to serve as chancellor.

"If I do it, then this is the only imaginable option," Haider told the Austria Presse Agency.

Haider founded the Alliance for the Future of Austria three years ago after breaking away from the extreme-right Freedom Party.

That party joined Austria's coalition government in 2000 after an election campaign tinged with anti-immigrant and anti-Semitic rhetoric, which led to seven months of punitive EU sanctions and diplomatic isolation.

Haider handed over the alliance's leadership to Westenthaler in 2006.

Last Tuesday, a Vienna court convicted Westenthaler of providing false testimony about a brawl involving his former bodyguard and gave him a nine-month suspended sentence.

In the 2006 elections, the Alliance for the Future of Austria won 4.2 percent of the vote — just enough to enter parliament.

http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2008/08/02/europe/EU-POL-Austria-Haider.php

... which would mean the BZÖ could get close to 10% with Haider as frontrunner, at the expense of the FPÖ. Good to see the Rightists killing themselves off ...

[Хahar 🤔]

What that poll would entail:

ÖVP: 48
SPÖ: 42
FPÖ: 31
Grünen: 27
BZÖ: 13
Bürgerforum: 13
LIF: 9

Majority: 92

What ?

If those were the results, what the seat distribution would be. It's not really meaningful in this poll, but it is when parties miss the threshold.

[Tender Branson]

What that poll would entail:

ÖVP: 48
SPÖ: 42
FPÖ: 31
Grünen: 27
BZÖ: 13
Bürgerforum: 13
LIF: 9

Majority: 92

What ?

If those were the results, what the seat distribution would be. It's not really meaningful in this poll, but it is when parties miss the threshold.

Ahh, I didn´t think about seats at all ... But yeah, it sounds about right.

...

Interesting new poll for Upper Austria:



The state of Upper Austria has always voted for the federal winner in every election since 1962. Maybe the SPÖ could pull an upset next month, especially considering that their frontrunner is far more popular than the ÖVP frontrunner. In the latest Gallup poll above, Faymann beat Molterer 2:1 in a direct vote for chancellor.

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I endorse the Liberals

[Tender Branson]

I endorse the Liberals

I´ll also create a poll here after the deadline for party signatures on August 22.

[Hash]

I endorse the Liberals

I´ll also create a poll here after the deadline for party signatures on August 22.

Danke

[Verily]

I endorse the Liberals

I´ll also create a poll here after the deadline for party signatures on August 22.

Danke

I suspect the Liberals may well win our poll here while failing to meet the threshold in Austria.

[Tender Branson]

I endorse the Liberals

I´ll also create a poll here after the deadline for party signatures on August 22.

Danke

I suspect the Liberals may well win our poll here while failing to meet the threshold in Austria.

Unless they get 8-10% in Vienna, like they did in 1994 and 1995. They could get 3% elsewhere and could cross the 4% in all of Austria. The Liberals were also particularly strong in the western states of Salzburg, Vorarlberg and Tyrol.

[Tender Branson]

New poll by Fessel-GfK for the newspaper Krone:

ÖVP - 29%
SPÖ - 25%
FPÖ - 17-18%
Greens - 12-13%
CitizenForum - 4-5%
Liberals - 3-4%
BZÖ - 2-3%

The poll was conducted prior to the announcement of Jörg Haider leading the BZÖ in the elections. I think they will easily cross the 4% now.

[??????????]

New poll by Fessel-GfK for the newspaper Krone:

ÖVP - 29%

[Хahar 🤔]

I'm still looking for a party. Will somebody help?

[Verily]

I'm still looking for a party. Will somebody help?

Der KPO. But if you want a party that will make it over the threshold, probably the Greens. Maybe SPO if you were actually Austrian and either an immigrant or in a traditionally leftist family. Unless you lived in Graz, then you'd probably be a commie anyway.

[Tender Branson]

The Social Democrats are gaining and it's the first time in a very long period that the SPÖ is tied with the ÖVP, according to the new Ö24/Gallup poll:

SPÖ: 26%
ÖVP: 26%
FPÖ: 19%
Greens: 14%
BZÖ: 6%
CitizenForum: 6%
Liberals: 3%

This poll makes coalitions complicated once again. The CitizenForum has ruled out a coalition with FPÖ/BZÖ, just like the Greens did. SPÖ or ÖVP-Greens-Citizen has no majority. I really hope the Liberals get more than 4%, so that we can get a SPÖ-Green-CitizenForum-Liberal coalition. Otherwise the only possible coalition would be the former hated Grand again ...

Today, Werner Faymann was elected party chairman and frontrunner of the SPÖ with 98.36% of the more than 1600 delegates at the SPÖ convention in Linz.

[minionofmidas]

The Social Democrats are gaining and it's the first time in a very long period that the SPÖ is tied with the ÖVP, according to the new Ö24/Gallup poll:

SPÖ: 26%
ÖVP: 26%
FPÖ: 19%
Greens: 14%
BZÖ: 6%
CitizenForum: 6%
Liberals: 3%

This poll makes coalitions complicated once again. The CitizenForum has ruled out a coalition with FPÖ/BZÖ, just like the Greens did. SPÖ or ÖVP-Greens-Citizen has no majority. I really hope the Liberals get more than 4%, so that we can get a SPÖ-Green-CitizenForum-Liberal coalition. Otherwise the only possible coalition would be the former hated Grand again ...

ÖVP-FPÖ-BZÖ?

[Verily]

The Social Democrats are gaining and it's the first time in a very long period that the SPÖ is tied with the ÖVP, according to the new Ö24/Gallup poll:

SPÖ: 26%
ÖVP: 26%
FPÖ: 19%
Greens: 14%
BZÖ: 6%
CitizenForum: 6%
Liberals: 3%

This poll makes coalitions complicated once again. The CitizenForum has ruled out a coalition with FPÖ/BZÖ, just like the Greens did. SPÖ or ÖVP-Greens-Citizen has no majority. I really hope the Liberals get more than 4%, so that we can get a SPÖ-Green-CitizenForum-Liberal coalition. Otherwise the only possible coalition would be the former hated Grand again ...

ÖVP-FPÖ-BZÖ?

Wouldn't that make Jorg Haider explode or something?

[Tender Branson]

The Social Democrats are gaining and it's the first time in a very long period that the SPÖ is tied with the ÖVP, according to the new Ö24/Gallup poll:

SPÖ: 26%
ÖVP: 26%
FPÖ: 19%
Greens: 14%
BZÖ: 6%
CitizenForum: 6%
Liberals: 3%

This poll makes coalitions complicated once again. The CitizenForum has ruled out a coalition with FPÖ/BZÖ, just like the Greens did. SPÖ or ÖVP-Greens-Citizen has no majority. I really hope the Liberals get more than 4%, so that we can get a SPÖ-Green-CitizenForum-Liberal coalition. Otherwise the only possible coalition would be the former hated Grand again ...

ÖVP-FPÖ-BZÖ?

Wouldn't that make Jorg Haider explode or something?

Most likely. They hate each other and they will face off in the first TV debate on August 22. This will be fun to watch. Imagine the radical nut Rick Santorum debate an Independent radical nut Tom Tancredo ...

[Tender Branson]

New Ö24/Gallup poll out today:

ÖVP - 28%
SPÖ - 27%
FPÖ - 17%
Greens - 15%
BZÖ - 5%
CitizenForum - 4%
Liberals - 3%
Others - 1%

Gallup also provides a few pathetic state numbers: According to them the SPÖ would get only 29% right now in Vienna - which would mean 12% less than in the 2006 elections. In Styria, both the SPÖ and the ÖVP are tied at 29%. In 2006, the ÖVP got 37.5% there and the SPÖ 37.2% - so Styria will be a swing state again. For Salzburg, the numbers right now are 25% ÖVP and 20% SPÖ, compared with 39% ÖVP and 29% SPÖ in 2006. Given these numbers, the Greens and the FPÖ would probably be around 20% in Salzburg. I could also see the Liberals, CitizenForum and the BZÖ getting 5% in Salzburg.

Ballot access news:

There's about 1 week left for parties to collect enough signatures to be on the ballot in all 9 states. The Citizen-Forum has already enough signatures in Tyrol, Vorarlberg and Burgenland, but says they are struggling in Vienna. The Liberals are on the ballot in Vienna and Carinthia, the Communist Party in Vienna, Burgenland, Vorarlberg, Styria and Tyrol. In the other 4 states they already have 3/4 of the necessary signatures. The Left Party will be on the ballot in Vienna and Salzburg, The Christian Party will be on the ballot in at least 3 states, "Save Austria" has Vienna and Lower Austria locked up and they are at 70% in Upper Austria.

I think there's a certain spin going on, because I'd be surprised if the CitizenForum is not on the ballot in almost every state and especially Vienna. The same for the Liberals: I don't know why they are not on the ballot in Salzburg yet, when they are running MEP Karin Resetarits on top of their state list and they got 6% there in the 90s. I have not decided to help a party on the ballot yet. What do you think ? Who should I help on the ballot in Salzburg with my signature ? The CitizenForum or the Liberals ? I will certainly not give ballot access to the Communists and the EU-bashing "Save Austria" or even the medieval Christian Party ...

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Liberals!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Liberals!

Gallup