Austrian Parliamentary Election - 28/09/2008

[Kevinstat]

Preliminary result with postal votes (some postal votes are still under way and will be counted until next Monday):

http://wahl08.bmi.gv.at

Turnout will remain stable at about 77-78%.

Editing Tender Branson's post on the preliminary final result to reflect the new votes (all postal votes I presume) counted since then:

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Editing my post on the strength of mathematically possible (majority) governing coalitions v. that of their parliamentary opposition:

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[Kevinstat]

The non-SPÖ, non-FPÖ party in these mathematically possible governing coalitions would not be necessary to form a majority if the current seat tally holds, but I thought I would list these coalitions as every party in them would be necessary if the SPÖ or FPÖ lost a seat to one of the other three parliamentary parties, thereby depriving an SPÖ-FPÖ coalition of a majority.

SPÖ-FPÖ-BZÖ (just imagine) (113 seats) v. ÖVP-Grünen (70 seats)
SPÖ-FPÖ-Grünen (111 seats) v. ÖVP-BZÖ (72 seats; to think that these two parties maintained a majority governement together a little over two years ago)

[Tender Branson]

Editing Tender Branson's post on the preliminary final result to reflect the new votes (all postal votes I presume) counted since then:

The remaining postal votes (I guess about 50.000) will be counted until Monday evening.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The earlier maps on a national map.

[Verily]

I love how the BZO map could serve as a map of how far you are from Carinthia, and the Green map would be a strong proxy for population density.

[Tender Branson]

I love how the BZO map could serve as a map of how far you are from Carinthia, and the Green map would be a strong proxy for population density.

Green Party = Urban/Suburbs Party.

The good results for the BZÖ in the counties bordering Carinthia is probably due to the newspaper "Kleine Zeitung", that has also a big audience in Southern Styria (Graz+Suburbs) and the districts of Lienz (Tyrol), Tamsweg (Salzburg) and Murau (Styria). The Kleine Zeitung is far more active in reporting stuff thzat's going on in Carinthia than the national newspapers like Krone, Presse, Standard, News, Profil, Kurier etc. ...

[Tender Branson]

Final Result with all absentee and postal votes counted:

SPÖ: 29.3% (-6.0)   1.430.202 votes   57 seats (-11)
ÖVP: 26.0% (-8.3)   1.269.655 votes   51 seats (-15)
FPÖ: 17.5% (+6.5)   857.028 votes   34 seats (+13)
BZÖ: 10.7% (+6.6)   522.933 votes   21 seats (+14)
Greens: 10.4% (-0.7)   509.937 votes   20 seats (-1)

LIF: 2.1% (+2.1)   102.249 votes
FRITZ: 1.8% (+1.8 )   86.194 votes
KPÖ: 0.8% (-0.2)   37.362 votes
RETTÖ: 0.7% (+0.7)   35.718 votes
DC: 0.6% (+0.6)   31.080 votes

TRP: 2.224 votes
LINKE: 2.138 votes
KHK: 347 votes
STARK: 237 votes

....

Total eligible to vote: 6.332.921

Total votes cast: 4.990.947

Total valid votes: 4.887.304

Total turnout: 78.8% (+0.3%)

[minionofmidas]

Just for comparison...

Counting is finished and the preliminary final result of the 2008 election is:

SPÖ: 29.71% (-5.63)   1.316.091 votes   58 seats (-10)
ÖVP: 25.61% (-8.72)   1.134.837 votes   50 seats (-16)
FPÖ: 18.01% (+6.97)   797.993 votes   35 seats (+14)
BZÖ: 10.98% (+6.87)   486.397 votes   21 seats (+14)
Greens: 9.79% (-1.26)   433.810 votes   19 seats (-2)

LIF: 1.91% (+1.91)   84.764 votes
FRITZ: 1.76% (+1.76)   78.119 votes
KPÖ: 0.77% (-0.24)   34.107 votes
RETTÖ: 0.72% (+0.72)   32.073 votes
DC: 0.63% (+0.63)   27.993 votes
LINKE: 0.05% (+0.05)   1.898 votes
TRP: 0.04% (+0.04)   1.849 votes
KHK: 0.01% (+0.01)   317 votes
STARK: 0.01% (+0.01)   225 votes

....

Total eligible to vote: 6.332.921

Total votes cast: 4.526.798

Total valid votes: 4.430.473

Total turnout: 71.48%

[minionofmidas]

So the postal vote split...

ÖVP 29.51%
SPÖ 24.98%
Greens 16.66%
FPÖ 12.92%
BZÖ 8.00%
LIF 3.83%
Dinkhauser 1.77%

[Filuwaúrdjan]

So the postal vote split...

ÖVP 29.51%
SPÖ 24.98%
Greens 16.66%
FPÖ 12.92%
BZÖ 8.00%
LIF 3.83%
Dinkhauser 1.77%

Noting the high ÖVP and Greenie figures and low SPÖ and FPÖ figures... is there still much of a class element in choosing whether to vote by post or not [qm]

[Tender Branson]

So the postal vote split...

ÖVP 29.51%
SPÖ 24.98%
Greens 16.66%
FPÖ 12.92%
BZÖ 8.00%
LIF 3.83%
Dinkhauser 1.77%

Postal vote results:

http://wahl08.bmi.gv.at/bw_ov.htm

Absentee results:

http://wahl08.bmi.gv.at/wkt_ov.htm

Postal + Absentee results:

http://wahl08.bmi.gv.at/card_total_ov.htm

Interesting fact:

587.000 absentee ballots (must be used for postal votes) were issued this year and 461.000 voted.

Turnout of 78.5% among absentee and postal voters.

This does not include those who have voted with an absentee ballot in their own precinct ("Sprengel"), because they were already included in the Sunday vote count.

[Kevinstat]

ÖVP-BZÖ-Grünen (very unlikely)

And not a majority (only 90 seats to 93 combined for the SPÖ and the FPÖ)

Well, I take that back.  I agree, though, that such a coalition is very, very unlikely.

Based on the absolute final result according to Tender Branson (which, in terms of seat tallies at least, matches that of Wikipedia and the page http://wahl08.bmi.gv.at/ Tender provided a link to earlier, the following are all possible majority coalitions (including ones where one or more component parties are not necessary toward that coalition having a majority) and the opposition (except where all five parties in parliament are in the governing coalition) with the number of seats and gain/loss over the last election for each.  The Liberal Forum member elected on the SPÖ's list in 2006 is counted as an SPÖ member here for purposes of comparison with the election just held.  Parties essential to the coalition are in italics and the seven majority coalitions where each party is necessary are also in boldface.

SPÖ+ÖVP+FPÖ+BZÖ+Greens (183 seats (n/c))
SPÖ+ÖVP+FPÖ+BZÖ (163 seats (+1)) v. Greens (20 seats (-1))
SPÖ+ÖVP+FPÖ+Greens (162 seats (-14)) v. BZÖ (21 seats (+14))
SPÖ+ÖVP+BZÖ+Greens (149 seats (-13)) v. FPÖ (34 seats (+13))
SPÖ+ÖVP+FPÖ (142 seats (-13)) v. BZÖ+Greens (41 seats (+13))
SPÖ+FPÖ+BZÖ+Greens (132 seats (+15)) v. ÖVP (51 seats (-15))
SPÖ+ÖVP+BZÖ (129 seats (-12)) v. FPÖ+Greens (54 seats (+12))
SPÖ+ÖVP+Greens (128 seats (-27)) v. FPÖ+BZÖ (55 seats (+27))
ÖVP+FPÖ+BZÖ+Greens (126 seats (+11)) v. SPÖ (57 seats (-11))
SPÖ+FPÖ+BZÖ (112 seats (+16)) v. ÖVP+Greens (71 seats (-16))
SPÖ+FPÖ+Greens (111 seats (+1)) v. ÖVP+BZÖ (72 seats (-1))
SPÖ+ÖVP (108 seats (-26)) v. FPÖ+BZÖ+Greens (75 seats (+26))
ÖVP+FPÖ+BZÖ (106 seats (+12)) v. SPÖ+Greens (77 seats (-12))
ÖVP+FPÖ+Greens (105 seats (-3)) v. SPÖ+BZÖ (78 seats (+3))
SPÖ+BZÖ+Greens (98 seats (+2)) v. ÖVP+FPÖ (85 seats (-2))
ÖVP+BZÖ+Greens (92 seats (-2)) v. SPÖ+FPÖ (91 seats (+2))

No combination of the five parties represented in Austria's parliament went from a majority to a minority or vice versa, although some combinations of parties passed other combinations or individual parties in stregth, and the Greens were overtaken by both the FPÖ (in votes; the FPÖ pulling ahead from a 2006 tie in seats) and BZÖ (in votes and seats).

[minionofmidas]

Final Result with all absentee and postal votes counted:

SPÖ: 29.3% (-6.0)   1.430.202 votes   57 seats (-11)
ÖVP: 26.0% (-8.3)   1.269.655 votes   51 seats (-15)
FPÖ: 17.5% (+6.5)   857.028 votes   34 seats (+13)
BZÖ: 10.7% (+6.6)   522.933 votes   21 seats (+14)
Greens: 10.4% (-0.7)   509.937 votes   20 seats (-1)

Lol, I just counted what would happen if they just used the first-level constituencies as D'Hondt constituencies.

SPÖ 72, ÖVP 56, FPÖ 32, Greens 12, BZÖ 11 (of which 8 from Carinthia, unsurprisingly). That's pretty messed up - the minor parties losing seats under such a system is of course to be expected, but three-quarters of that flowing to the SPÖ?

[MaxQue]

I hope than negociations will be stopped for a couple of days.

The death of Jorg Haider, the BZO leader, is a very sad event and everybody needs to respect that.

[Хahar 🤔]

Haider is dead?

RIP.

[Harry Hayfield]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/7664846.stm BBC News Report on a car crash in which Herr Haider was the driver

Austrian far-right politician Joerg Haider has been killed in a road accident, police say. Mr Haider suffered severe head and chest injuries after his car came off the road in Carinthia, his political base.
Police investigating the crash said he had been driving alone. The 58-year-old was leader of the Alliance for Austria's Future, and was known for his anti-immigration and anti-EU policies. The Alliance was one of two right-wing parties which did better than expected in general elections last month, fuelling speculation of a possible role in a ruling coalition.

[Middle-aged Europe]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/7664846.stm BBC News Report on a car crash in which Herr Haider was the driver

Austrian far-right politician Joerg Haider has been killed in a road accident, police say. Mr Haider suffered severe head and chest injuries after his car came off the road in Carinthia, his political base.
Police investigating the crash said he had been driving alone. The 58-year-old was leader of the Alliance for Austria's Future, and was known for his anti-immigration and anti-EU policies. The Alliance was one of two right-wing parties which did better than expected in general elections last month, fuelling speculation of a possible role in a ruling coalition.

Conspiracy theory time!

[Hash]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/7664846.stm BBC News Report on a car crash in which Herr Haider was the driver

Austrian far-right politician Joerg Haider has been killed in a road accident, police say. Mr Haider suffered severe head and chest injuries after his car came off the road in Carinthia, his political base.
Police investigating the crash said he had been driving alone. The 58-year-old was leader of the Alliance for Austria's Future, and was known for his anti-immigration and anti-EU policies. The Alliance was one of two right-wing parties which did better than expected in general elections last month, fuelling speculation of a possible role in a ruling coalition.

Conspiracy theory time!

It's the FPÖ! It's the Communists!

[minionofmidas]

Thus Always to Speeders.
Oh yeah, and seatbelts won't save you.

He had good reasons to be speeding though - he was on the way from a political event to his mother's 90th birthday party. The poor old woman.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Are voting patterns in Carinthia likely to change much now that Haider is dead [qm]

[minionofmidas]

Who the hell knows.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Who the hell knows.

Does the fact that I wondered about that only a few minutes after hearing that he'd been killed make me a dreadful person [qm].

Heh.

[afleitch]

Who the hell knows.

Does the fact that I wondered about that only a few minutes after hearing that he'd been killed make me a dreadful person [qm].

Heh.

Not really. However it now means Harry can freely post a by-election thread a few minutes after the death of a sitting MP on the International Elections Board

[Tender Branson]

Are voting patterns in Carinthia likely to change much now that Haider is dead [qm]

Don´t know, probably yes, mostly because Haider was simply Haider. It was a brand.

But the first impression of the new BZÖ governor was quite positive. Maybe they can still win in the upcoming state elections next year, mainly because of internal SPÖ problems.

[minionofmidas]

Are voting patterns in Carinthia likely to change much now that Haider is dead [qm]

Don´t know, probably yes, mostly because Haider was simply Haider. It was a brand.

But the first impression of the new BZÖ governor was quite positive. Maybe they can still win in the upcoming state elections next year, mainly because of internal SPÖ problems.

There is also the question of a healing of the BZÖ-FPÖ rift (especially if, at the next general elections, the BZÖ support erodes.)

Btw tender Roland. There's some questions for you to ponder over in the last post in the constituencies thread.
Much obliged for answers!