Adam Putnam: We're all f**cked

[Meeker]

Politics1:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Could this actually happen? And who would it effect in particular?

[Flying Dog]

Expect the worse to make the end result not as bad as you were expecting.

[Torie]

Ya, it seems like a fund raising ploy. But it will be an ugly election for the GOP, just not THAT ugly.

[MarkWarner08]

Ya, it seems like a fund raising ploy. But it will be an ugly election for the GOP, just not THAT ugly.

Amen to that. Here's a look at my list of the twenty most vulnerable GOP incumbents. The number refers to how likely they're to flip parties.

4. AK-AL (Young)
12. IL-10 (Kirk)               
13. NC-08 (Hayes)
14. MI-07 (Walberg)
15. NV-03 (Porter)
16. CT-04 (Shays)
17. CO-04 (Musgrave)
18. OH-01 (Chabot)
19. WA-08 (Reichert)
20. MI-09 (Knollenberg)
22. NY-29 (Kuhl)
27. MO-06 (Graves)
28. OH-02 (Schmidt)
30. PA-03 (English)
32. ID-01 (Sali)
33. FL-24 (Feeney)
34. FL-08 (Keller)
36. FL-13 (Buchanan)
37. FL-21 (Diaz-Balart, Lincoln)
38. FL-25 (Diaz-Balart, Mario)

None of these incumbents won over 60% and only a handful won over 55% in 2006. If Putnam is right (which I think is unlikely), up to 80 GOP seats in play.

[Lief 🗽]

Gerrymandering in the South probably prevents what Putnam is talking about from happening. I assume he's talking about increased black turnout, which would be problematic, if not for the fact that Southern districts are either mostly white or mostly black these days.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Gerrymandering in the South probably prevents what Putnam is talking about from happening. I assume he's talking about increased black turnout, which would be problematic, if not for the fact that Southern districts are either mostly white or mostly black these days.

It's not just the south though. Steve Chabot in Ohio always relies on chronically low black turnout to win for example.

[Sam Spade]

Ya, it seems like a fund raising ploy. But it will be an ugly election for the GOP, just not THAT ugly.

Agreed.

Secondly, I think there's way too much overplaying the increases in black voter turnout that will probably occur and the impact it will have.  JMO.  Besides, we all know that whites in the areas where high black populations in the South exist tend to be much less likely to play swing voter.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Fourteen of New Jersey's thirteen congressional seats will go Democratic this year.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Fourteen of New Jersey's thirteen congressional seats will go Democratic this year.

The sad part is that wouldn't even be seen as corrupt

[MarkWarner08]

Gerrymandering in the South probably prevents what Putnam is talking about from happening. I assume he's talking about increased black turnout, which would be problematic, if not for the fact that Southern districts are either mostly white or mostly black these days.

It's not just the south though. Steve Chabot in Ohio always relies on chronically low black turnout to win for example.

Steve Chabot also relies on top-knotch constituent services, excellent fundraising, and solid  outreach to the AA community. He's one of the savviest pols in the House. Few Congressmen have survived a $1 million ad buy from the AFL-CIO  one year, a challenge from a very popular Dem. another year (Roxanne Qualls -- (sp?)), and an extremely difficult climate and a stiff $2 million challenge another year (2006). Chabot is a survivor, and he may well survive this year.

[Sam Spade]

Gerrymandering in the South probably prevents what Putnam is talking about from happening. I assume he's talking about increased black turnout, which would be problematic, if not for the fact that Southern districts are either mostly white or mostly black these days.

It's not just the south though. Steve Chabot in Ohio always relies on chronically low black turnout to win for example.

Steve Chabot also relies on top-knotch constituent services, excellent fundraising, and solid  outreach to the AA community. He's one of the savviest pols in the House. Few Congressmen have survived a $1 million ad buy from the AFL-CIO  one year, a challenge from a very popular Dem. another year (Roxanne Qualls -- (sp?)), and an extremely difficult climate and a stiff $2 million challenge another year (2006). Chabot is a survivor, and he may well survive this year.

I agree.  Chabot's one of the more talented Reps the GOP has (imho)

[Mr.Phips]

Gerrymandering in the South probably prevents what Putnam is talking about from happening. I assume he's talking about increased black turnout, which would be problematic, if not for the fact that Southern districts are either mostly white or mostly black these days.

It's not just the south though. Steve Chabot in Ohio always relies on chronically low black turnout to win for example.

Steve Chabot also relies on top-knotch constituent services, excellent fundraising, and solid  outreach to the AA community. He's one of the savviest pols in the House. Few Congressmen have survived a $1 million ad buy from the AFL-CIO  one year, a challenge from a very popular Dem. another year (Roxanne Qualls -- (sp?)), and an extremely difficult climate and a stiff $2 million challenge another year (2006). Chabot is a survivor, and he may well survive this year.

Not to mention that he is in a seat that Democrats should probably be holding. 

[minionofmidas]

Politics1:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Could this actually happen? And who would it effect in particular?

"The turnout model that Obama brings"? Maybe my crap sensor is turned to to a wee bit too sensitive a level, but to me that sounds not like a reference to the turnout model Obama won the primaries on and/or will be bringing to the table in 2008, and more like "oh, and by the way: He's a n, and the ns will attempt to take power across the board if he becomes President, so let's unite to stop him".
Although while writing this down I also thought of another interpretation. "The turnout model Obama brings" may well be simply a euphemism for "the turnout model that the combination of very low Evangelical / lower class Republican enthusiasm (due to George W Bush and John McCain and us congressional Republicans) and a high black turnout (due to Obama) brings". In which case... not exactly what Putnam is predicting, but something in that general direction... may indeed occur, if the sh!t *really* hits the fan.

[Brittain33]

"oh, and by the way: He's a n, and the ns will attempt to take power across the board if he becomes President, so let's unite to stop him".

I know I've been here a relatively short time, but this is literally the only place I encounter people using language like that so commonly, either sincerely or in scare quotes. Why do people think it's ok? Would people talk like that in real life? If so, in what circumstances wouldn't you, and why wouldn't they apply here?

[The Duke]

I find it hard to imagine that there are many Republicans who survived the 2006 wipeout but could not survive 2008.  Doesn't it seem the low hanging fruit has already been picked?

[minionofmidas]

"oh, and by the way: He's a n, and the ns will attempt to take power across the board if he becomes President, so let's unite to stop him".

I know I've been here a relatively short time, but this is literally the only place I encounter people using language like that so commonly, either sincerely or in scare quotes. Why do people think it's ok?

So what you're saying is it's evil and non-pc to claim that other people are racist? Or what? I'm sorry, I can't quite follow you here.

[Brittain33]

So what you're saying is it's evil and non-pc to claim that other people are racist? Or what? I'm sorry, I can't quite follow you here.

What I am saying is that it's the common convention pretty much everywhere not to use that word either directly or indirectly, and yet I've seen it three times here in the last few days, and I'm raising the question. (I don't tend to call people "evil" based on words they choose, thanks; I've seen one person throw "f****t" around pretty ostentatiously and it was just laughable.) I am NOT trying to call you out or say anything about you; it's that it's apparently considered ok here, and I was curious why. "Pickaninnies" just got edited out of a thread title on the Presidential forum.

My question was, if you were having a conversation with a group of people, some of whom you know well and some of whom you don't know at all, do you think it would be appropriate to say that? If not, why the difference here?

[minionofmidas]

So what you're saying is it's evil and non-pc to claim that other people are racist? Or what? I'm sorry, I can't quite follow you here.

What I am saying is that it's the common convention pretty much everywhere not to use that word either directly or indirectly, and yet I've seen it three times here in the last few days, and I'm raising the question. (I don't tend to call people "evil" based on words they choose, thanks; I've seen one person throw "f****t" around pretty ostentatiously and it was just laughable.) I am NOT trying to call you out or say anything about you; it's that it's apparently considered ok here, and I was curious why. "Pickaninnies" just got edited out of a thread title on the Presidential forum.

My question was, if you were having a conversation with a group of people, some of whom you know well and some of whom you don't know at all, do you think it would be appropriate to say that? If not, why the difference here?

Yeah...as I was saying (maybe I didn't say it too well). The word "n" has no innate magical negative qualities. Words never hurt anybody. Words with feeling behind do. Proscribing the word in a context such as this could only be in the interest of white racists who don't want to be called racist (or admittedly, non-racist Republican operatives who don't want to be called racist).
Basically I don't accept that any word that can be used as an insult is by that very token a taboo word. I think we are a bit too grown-up and sophisticated for magical taboos.

Just to give an example of the word n occurring in everyday speech. Actually occurred yesterday. I'll admit there weren't any people I don't know at all present. I'm trying to quote verbatim from memory here while also translating from the German.
I picked up a cd at a friend's place saying "this looks strange", studied it, then added "that's because it is strange. Commercial "folk" music by Indios for Indios" (that's what it was, too. A souvenir his flatmate brought from Peru.) and he nodded but said "Indigenas. Indios is a swearword today. It's like "n" down there. I mean saying Indio down there is like saying n in the US." (I didn't know that. I knew Indio isn't the pr term, of course, just didn't think of it in the situation.) So... should my friend not have said "n" in that sentence if a stranger had been around?

[Brittain33]

So... should my friend not have said "n" in that sentence if a stranger had been around?

In the U.S., honestly, I'd have to say no, he probably shouldn't have. Again, not because the use wasn't innocent or because your friend meant anything racist by it, but because there's been a great effort to box that word out of the public discourse and a thousand good-faith exceptions and scare quote examples seriously weaken that, when taken in total. It's also truly jarring and offensive to a lot of people; I was surprised to see how strongly my mother reacted to hearing it, and she has no firsthand reason to.

Thanks for engaging me on this. I know that talking about words on an Internet forum is usually marks one as a humorless prig and is a straight ticket to pariah-dom, but I've been surprised by the ease with which it's used here. Someone wrote "Kids and nigs don't win elections" to explain why Obama isn't polling better and I think any where else I've ever read or posted, including FR, that would have been zapped right away.

[Sam Spade]

If only y'all had lived in Texas (or anywhere in the South for that matter).

A couple of day ago, I was talking to my parents.  Apparently, one day last week in the barrio, a Hispanic man came in wanting to buy a house.  He rented over in one of most polluted and nasty barrio areas of Houston, period.  However, the maximum amount he could get for a loan was $30,000 (he did have some money for a down payment).

My father told him, of course, that this would limit the number of areas he could look for a house.  The Hispanic man said - "I don't really care where I live, as long as its not near a bunch of n*****s".  My father told him that with the amount of his loan, the only place he could buy was in a black area (Hispanic areas are too pricey).

(I'll continue the story in about 30 minutes...  )

[Sam Spade]

Thanks for engaging me on this. I know that talking about words on an Internet forum is usually marks one as a humorless prig and is a straight ticket to pariah-dom, but I've been surprised by the ease with which it's used here. Someone wrote "Kids and nigs don't win elections" to explain why Obama isn't polling better and I think any where else I've ever read or posted, including FR, that would have been zapped right away.

Yah, but you missed the little line in small print above it where I typed:  "Let's see how offensive I can be today!" 

I push the envelope a bit around here because I like to.  Maybe it's just a reactive instinct - the only person I can play around with offensive language around this neck of the woods is the GF. 

In Texas, of course, it was quite a different world.

[Sam Spade]

If only y'all had lived in Texas (or anywhere in the South for that matter).

A couple of day ago, I was talking to my parents.  Apparently, one day last week in the barrio, a Hispanic man came in wanting to buy a house.  He rented over in one of most polluted and nasty barrio areas of Houston, period.  However, the maximum amount he could get for a loan was $30,000 (he did have some money for a down payment).

My father told him, of course, that this would limit the number of areas he could look for a house.  The Hispanic man said - "I don't really care where I live, as long as its not near a bunch of n*****s".  My father told him that with the amount of his loan, the only place he could buy was in a black area (Hispanic areas are too pricey).

(I'll continue the story in about 30 minutes...  )

To continue:

So, my father is looking on the Internet for houses for him and finds this one in Baytown for about $30,000.  Goes and drives over to show it to him.  Now, he doesn't know Baytown *that well*, and it turns out to be in one of these traditionally black quasi-rural areas of Baytown (old slave settlement), couple of houses away from the local African Methodist Episcopal Church.  He thinks, oh no, the guy will hate it here and drives to look for something to eat.

After eating, he comes back and finds the Mexican guy waiting for him.  He says, "Look, I didn't realize the area this was in, so we'll try again to find something else."  The guy responds: "No, I like it here.  The lady next door (an old black lady) said that she thought my kids were really nice and sweet (yes he has a wife and kids), and besides I like the area - it's kind of away from it all.

There's a lesson in here somewhere, I think...