The re-election victory of George H.W. Bush and America thereafter

[CPT MikeyMike]

What if George Herbert Walker Bush defeated Bill Clinton in 1992?

The fall of 1992 saw a significant increase in jobs created and economic growth. With clear signs of the economy improving, it takes away one of Bill Clinton’s rally cries of “It’s the Economy Stupid.” Despite President Bush underperforming in three televised debates, the election polls show a virtual deadlock between Governor Clinton and President Bush.  The day before the election, the Gallop poll shows Bush and Clinton tied at 43% with Ross Perot at 14%. It is projected that Election Night 1992 will be a long night. It isn’t until 4:30 in the morning when both Louisiana and Iowa, totaling 16 electoral votes, are called for President Bush and giving him a second term.

Bush/Quayle: 282 EV; 42,983,768 (41.16%)
Clinton/Gore: 256 EV; 42,215,218 (40.43%)
Perot/Stockdale: 0 EV; 18,559,152 (17.77%)

Closest States
Connecticut by 0.07% - Clinton defeats Bush by 1,201 votes
Iowa by 0.30% - Bush defeats Clinton by 4,108 votes
Michigan by 0.99% -Clinton defeats Bush by 42,211 votes
Louisiana by 1.57% - Bush defeats Clinton by 28,020 votes
Tennessee by 1.60% - Bush defeats Clinton by 32,800 votes

Note: This is simply 6% of both Clinton’s and Perot’s actual vote going to Bush.

The President’s re-election victory also brought along with him 26 Republicans into the House of Representatives and in the Senate, the Republicans gain two seats.

The 103rd United States Congress will look as follows:

House:
Democrats: 242
Republicans: 192
Independent: 1

Senate:
Democrats: 55
Republicans: 45

Senate Changes from Real Life:

1. South Carolina Senator Ernest Hollings, who was in the Senate for 26 years, is defeated by former U.S. Representative Thomas F. Hartnett.
2. In Wisconsin, Senator Bob Kasten holds on to his Senate seat over State Senator Russ Feingold. It is the third election in a row where Kasten wins less than 51% of the vote.

Next: President Bush’s Second Term

[YRABNNRM]

Mike, your timelines are always very enjoyable so I'm looking forward to this one.

[CPT MikeyMike]

Mike, your timelines are always very enjoyable so I'm looking forward to this one.

Thank you Andrew!

[HappyWarrior]

Can't wait to see where this TL goes.

[MasterJedi]

Interesting, I look forward to reading this.

And yay for Kasten!

[Хahar 🤔]

This should be fun...

[CPT MikeyMike]

19 January 1993: U.S. forces fire approximately 40 Tomahawk cruise missiles at Baghdad factories linked to Iraq's illegal nuclear weapons program. This comes after Iraq refuses to allow UNSCOM inspectors into the country.

20 January 1993: President Bush is sworn in for his second term. In his inaugural address, President Bush highlights the ending of the Cold War and the challenge of America becoming the uni-polar power on earth. “This is a challenge we can not and will not back away. We accept this as the beacon of freedom around the world.”

05 February 1993: President Bush vetoes The Family and Medical Leave Act of 1993. President Bush vetoes the bill because he asked the number of weeks of leave be reduced from 12 weeks to 8 weeks.

09 February 1993: The United States Senate overrides President Bush’s veto to The Family and Medical Leave Act of 1993.   

14 June 1993: President Bush announces that he will select Ilana Rovner, a judge on the United States Court of Appeals for the Seventh Circuit to succeed Justice Byron White on the Supreme Court.

19 July 1993: President Bush angers social conservatives by endorsing 'Don't ask, don't tell' policy regarding gays in the American military. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs General Colin Powell was one of the chief architects to the policy.

03 August 1993: Ilana Rovner confirmation to the Supreme Court is approved by the US Senate by an 88-11 vote

10 August 1993: President Bush is successful in passing Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act of 1993. Unlike Clinton’s passage, it does not call for tax increase on upper-income payers nut instead calls for eliminating all energy tax increases while also scaling back the Earned Income Tax Credit. This passes in the House by a 220-215 margin and in the Senate by a 52-48 vote.

01 September 1993: President Bush’s approval rating
   Approve: 51%
   Disapprove: 43%

03 October 1993: In the Battle for Mogadishu, 18 US Solders are killed. Despite it being considered a failure by the United States, Secretary of Defense Dick Cheney calls for the US to air strike Mogadishu if any more US Soldiers are harmed. Meanwhile Secretary of State Lawrence Eagleburger is dispatched to Somalia in order to broker a peace settlement. The settlement fails. 

20 November 1993: NAFTA passes both houses of Congress. President Bush was an ardent supporter of NAFTA.

30 November 1993: President Bush vetoes the Brady Handgun Violence Prevention Act. The Senate does not have enough votes to override the veto.

[Robespierre's Jaw]

Mike, your timelines are always very enjoyable so I'm looking forward to this one.

I couldn't agree more with Andrew. Thus, I am looking forward to the next update regarding the 1994 Congressional Elections. Whilst it's a shame that Senator Feingold lost his bid for the Senate in 1992, with the re-election of George H.W. Bush in 1992 it does mean no Republican Revolution in 1994 am I correct?

[Person Man]

Gee. This sounds fun. I wonder what President Quayle's administration will be like.

[CPT MikeyMike]

Guys - As always, thanks for your votes of confidence. I apprecite them in every Time Line I create. I assure you at somepoint, my TL on post-Watergate elections will be completed.

Expect an update on President Bush and 1994 later today or tonight. My class got cancelled last night and I'm up to speed on my assignments. Meanwhile, check out my finished product from the Alternate History board.

[Albus Dumbledore]

Realistically we end up a little bit to the left of now since in practice Bush I governed slightly more liberal than Clinton did.

[CPT MikeyMike]

Realistically we end up a little bit to the left of now since in practice Bush I governed slightly more liberal than Clinton did.

That was partly because of the congress too. I doubt Bush would have signed the tax hike in 1990 or Clinton would have supported welfare reform had the congress been from the same party as the president.

[Albus Dumbledore]

Wihout clinton to propose bad lefty ideas no GOP taking of both houses in the 90s.

[CPT MikeyMike]

14 January 1994: President Bush and Russian President Boris Yeltsin sign the Kremlin Accords, which stop the preprogrammed aiming of nuclear missiles toward each country's targets, and also provide for the dismantling of the nuclear arsenal in Ukraine.

25 January 1994: In his State of the Union address, President Bush highlights an improving economy and the needs for welfare reform. However, President Bush calls out the need for the US involvement throughout the world. One of his primary concerns is Africa. “Our military must be bold, flexible and suitable to challenge the terrorists that are being harbored in Somalia and Rwanda.” He calls for increasing the military and instituting plans for counter terrorism.

10 March 1994: HUD Secretary Jack Kemp resigns. He is rumored to be seeing the Republican nomination for President in 1996.

15 April 1994: Time magazine releases a poll regarding preferences for the 1996 presidential election. The favorite to win the White House is retired General Colin Powell with a stunning 42% polled. Tennessee Senator Al Gore finishes second at 15%. Vice President Dan Quayle finishes sixth with 5% (behind Bill Clinton 12%, Ross Perot 9 % and Pat Buchanan 7%).

07 May 1994: President Bush, in a nationally televised address announces that the US and UN forces will be sent to Rwanda in order to stop the genocide and provide humanitarian relief.  With aid from the Rwandan Patriotic Front, the US and UN were able to halt the clashing between Hutu and Tutsi ethnic groups and preventing displacement. The US did suffer 17 casualties however, the efforts from the US and UN were widely applauded for this mission.  The US and UN would remain in Rwanda through 1995.

17 May 1994: With Associate Justice of the Supreme Court Harry Blackman retiring, President Bush announces Missouri Senator John Danforth as Blackman’s replacement.

12 July 1994:  In the early morning hours, Task Force Ranger conducts a second raid inside Mogadishu and in an attempt to capture Somalian warlord General Mohamed Farrah Aidid and his foreign minister, Omar Salad Elmi, and his top political advisor, Mohamed Hassan Awale. During the raid all three men were killed. Later there were claims that Task Force Ranger planned on killing, not capturing, the men. These allegations were never proven and President Bush awarded each member of Task Force Ranger a Silver Star for their mission.

03 August 1994: Missouri Senator John Danforth is confirmed as Associate Justice of the United States Supreme Court by a 92-6 vote.  Missouri Governor Mel Carnahan appoints Democratic Congressman Alan Wheat, who is running for Danforth’s seat in the November election, to fill the current vacancy.

13 September 1994: The Violent Crime Control and Law Enforcement Act is passed by congress and signed the President Bush.  The Federal Assault Weapons Ban section of the bill was taken out when President Bush threatened to veto the bill if the Assault Weapons Ban was in the final bill.

08 November 1994: Mid-term elections – There will be a separate thread for this!

21 November 1994: Tennessee Senator Al Gore announces that he will seek the Democratic presidential nomination in 1996. He is the first candidate to declare. That evening General Colin Powell announced that he will not run for the Republican nomination.

01 December 1994: President Bush’s approval rating
Approve: 56%
Disapprove: 36%

07 December 1994: Secretary of Defense Dick Cheney announces his resignation citing poor health. President Bush elevates Deputy Secretary of Defense Paul Wolfowitz to replace Cheney.

Note: Wolfowitz was Under Secretary of Defense for Policy from 1989-1993 and was named Deputy Defense Secretary in 1993.

15 December 1994: Former HUD Secretary Jack Kemp become the first Republican to formally announce his candidacy for the Republican nomination.

[YRABNNRM]

A great job as usual, keep it up! I'm very interested to see the midterms and then the 1996 election.

[CPT MikeyMike]

1994 Mid-term elections.

Despite President Bush’s relatively healthy approval rating, his party treads waters in the 1994 election. In the House, the Republicans lose 13 seats.  In the Senate, the Republicans actually gain 3 seats however the Democrats still maintain control of both houses of congress. It appears the President Bush will become the first President to serve term terms without ever having his party control either house of congress.

The 104th United States Congress will look as follows:

House:
Democrats: 255 (+13)
Republicans: 179 (-13)
Independent: 1

Senate:
Democrats: 52 (-3)
Republicans: 48 (+3)

House of Representatives notes…

House Speaker Tom Foley is not defeated in his reelection bid and retains his Speakership. The same goes for Judiciary Chairman Jack Brooks of Texas. Ways and Means Chairman Dan Rostenkowski is defeated because of the House post office scandal.

Some notable Republicans, who actually won in 1994, lose their bid for the House:
   Bob Barr (GA)
   Ed Whitfield (KY)
   Dick Chrysler (MI)
   Gil Gutknecht (MN)
   Michael Forbes (NY)
   Bob Ney (OH)
   Tom Coburn (OK)

Senate notes…

In Tennessee, Jim Sasser defeats physician Bill Frist. Sasser also becomes the Senate Majority Leader, replacing Maine Senator George Mitchell who is retiring. Remember that Al Gore still maintains his senate seat with his seat up for election in 1996.

In Texas, Lloyd Bentsen retires after 24 years in the Senate. In the race for his seat, former congressman and Texas Railroad Commissioner Bob Krueger defeats State Treasurer Kay Bailey Hutchison.

In Minnesota, Ann Wynia defeats Rod Grams.

In Oklahoma, Senator David Boren declines the position of President of the University of Oklahoma and maintains his senate seats. He has though announced that he will not seek re-election in 1996.

In Pennsylvania, Harris Wofford wins a term in his own right when he defeats Congressman Rick Santorum.

Note: Democrats Richard Shelby of Alabama and Ben Nighthorse Campbell of Colorado do not switch parties.

In the Gubernatorial elections, Arkansas Governor Bill Clinton is denied a 5th term when he is defeated by Mike Huckabee. Voters vote Clinton out of office because of their frustrations of the Governor ignoring statewide concerns and spending more time campaigning for Democrats nationwide. In Texas, Governor Ann Richards defeats President Bush’s son George W. Bush. In Florida, President Bush’s other son; Jeb Bush is defeated by Lawton Chiles.

[Captain Chaos]

I can't wait for the 1996 elections.

Do you think that Richard Shelby will eventually switch to the GOP in this TL?

Re 1994:
1. Did Governor Lowell Weicker (I-CT) run for re-election?
2. Was Rep. Craig Thomas (R-WY) still elected to the Senate?
3. Was Rep. Olympia Snowe (R-ME) still elected to the Senate?
4. Was Gov. Mario Cuomo (D-NY) still re-elected?

[CPT MikeyMike]

See answers below:

1. Did Governor Lowell Weicker (I-CT) run for re-election?

He didn't seek it in RL. Here, he doesn't either and John Rowland still is elected.

2. Was Rep. Craig Thomas (R-WY) still elected to the Senate?
3. Was Rep. Olympia Snowe (R-ME) still elected to the Senate?

Yes and Yes - If I didn't mention the seat, then it means the election happened as in RL.

4. Was Gov. Mario Cuomo (D-NY) still re-elected?

I have him defeated by Pataki. He was hit hard by his stance on the death penalty and the high crime rates in New York. He still loses in my TL.

[Robespierre's Jaw]

Whilst I am pleased that Ann Richards defeated George W. Bush in the 1994 Texas Gubernatorial Election, I'm sad that Bill Clinton lost his bid for a fifth term in the 1994 Arkansas Gubernatorial Election. However, if Bill Clinton did lose his bid for the White House in 1992, I doubt he would have ran for another term in 1994 as Governor, I believe in his autobiography he mentioned something along those lines, though I'm not 100 percent sure about that.

Anywho Mike, continue the superb work . It shall be interesting to see who the respective parties nominate for President in 1996. I have a feeling that it will be Al Gore for the Democrats and Jack Kemp for the Republicans, though I have a gut feeling that it might be Arlen Specter.

[CPT MikeyMike]

15 January 1995: California Governor Pete Wilson announces he will seek the Republican nomination.

31 January 1995: President Bush receives heavy criticism from conservative Republicans when he extends a $20 billion loan to help Mexico avert financial collapse. Conservative Pat Buchanan, who was a critic of Bush in 1992, claims that “Bush is simply allowing the Mexicans to take advantage of us. We have an open and chaotic border and all we’re doing is encouraging the Mexicans to take advantage of us. George Bush will make Mexico our 51st state and destroy America along with it.”

12 February 1995: At a Lincoln Birthday dinner, Vice President Dan Qualye announces his candidacy for the Republican nomination.

26 February 1995: During a Meet the Press interview, Former Arkansas Governor Bill Clinton announces that he will not run for the Democratic nomination.

13 March 1995: House Majority Leader Dick Gephardt announces that he will seek the Democratic nomination.

03 April 1995: Republican activist Alan Keyes announces his intention to see the Republican nomination.

19 April 1995: The Alfred P. Murrah Federal Building was bombed in an office complex in downtown Oklahoma City, Oklahoma by Timothy McVeigh. The attack claimed 168 lives and left over 800 people injured. President Bush state: “It was an act of cowardice and it was evil. The United States will not tolerate it, and I will not allow the people of this country to be intimidated by evil cowards.” Days later President Bush leads an emotional tribute to the victims in Oklahoma City.

23 May 1995: Indiana Governor Evan Bayh announces he will be running for President.

01 June 1995: President Bush’s approval rating
Approve: 58%
Disapprove: 34%

05 June 1995: Conservative author, journalist and commentator Pat Buchanan announces he will seek the Republican nomination.

04 July 1995: North Carolina Governor James Hunt announces that he will seek the Democratic nomination.

19 August 1995: Jack Kemp finishes first in the Ames Straw Poll
   Kemp: 39%
   Buchanan: 35%
   Quayle: 15%
   Keyes: 6%
   Misc: 4%
   Wilson: 1%

25 August 1995: Pete Wilson withdraws from the presidential race.

30 August 1995: In direct response to the second wave of Markale Massacres, President Bush along with NATO, commences begins Operation Deliberate Force against Serbs in Bosnia and Herzegovina.

13 September 1995: Ross Perot announces he will run as an Independent (later Reform Party) for President

04 October 1995: New Jersey Senator Bill Bradley announces that he will seek the Democratic nomination.

28 November 1995: President Bush signs the National Highway Designation Act, which ends the federal 55 mph speed limit.

01 December 1995: Gallop releases its poll on the Presidential nomination. For the Republicans, it is a three-way race between Kemp (31%), Quayle (27%) and Buchanan (25%) with Keyes having only 3% and 14% undecided. Meanwhile, in the Democratic field, Gore (29%), Gephardt (28%) and Hunt (25%) lead the field with Bradley and Bayh polling single digits (5% and 2% respectively) with 16% decided.  Most pundits point out that there is no clear front runner in either party.

Meanwhile, in several hypothetical match-ups, the Democrats are leading the Republicans in the race for the White House (37% to 33%). Ross Perot is polling 18% with 12% undecided.

11 December 1995: Citing lack of fund raising, Evan Bayh drops out of the presidential race.

[Captain Chaos]

Can hardly wait for 1996. When will we get an update?

[Хahar 🤔]

Darn. I wish Wilson could've won so that California could go D >70%.

[YRABNNRM]

It's been too long without an update!

[CPT MikeyMike]

It's been too long without an update!

I know, I know, I know.  I've been busy with my class on Energy and Global Interdependence.

I'll try to have at least part of 1996 out either tonight or tomorrow. 1996 will have to be at least two parts because it will generally focus on the 1996 campaign.

[Person Man]

Hmm, with John Danforth taking Breyer's seat, it would be really interesting to see what happens when Roe is overturned.