My VP Shortlist

[Mr. Morden]

Is this who you would have them put on their shortlists if you were advising them or who you think is actually on their shortlists (if a shortlist even exists yet)?

[Mr. Morden]

Is this who you would have them put on their shortlists if you were advising them or who you think is actually on their shortlists (if a shortlist even exists yet)?

Yeah kind of.

Ummm....that was an either/or question, not yes/no.

[Mr. Morden]

Obama/Zinni sounds funny and it sounds like the general Obama is most interested in is Jim Jones, but I don't have much else against the guy.  He did endorse Bush in 2000, showing some 'error in judgment' if nothing else.

Jones has appeared at both McCain and Obama events, and is said to be "close" to McCain.  Firstread called him "the new Mike Bloomberg":

http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/06/26/1169349.aspx

I still think Zinni is somewhat more likely as an Obama running mate.

[Mr. Morden]

Have I missed anyone?

Daschle

[Mr. Morden]

Daschle is close to Obama, and Obama-world is filled with former Daschle people.  He's an air force veteran with many years of experience in Washington, which would help balance out Obama's lack of experience.  Not saying I think those things are the most important considerations, but that would be the rationale.  Of course, whether you consider him depends on whether you think "he lost his most recent statewide election" is disqualifying or not.

[Mr. Morden]

It's true that Obama is not explicitly making the case that McCain is too old to be president.  He's not doing so because it would be in bad taste, and because he doesn't need to.  Plenty of voters will independently conclude on their own that he's too old.  Thus, there is a slight drawback to Obama picking a running mate who's over 70: He legitimizes the idea that even old geezers are capable of running the government (doesn't really matter that Obama was never explicitly arguing otherwise).

[Mr. Morden]

It's true that Obama is not explicitly making the case that McCain is too old to be president.  He's not doing so because it would be in bad taste, and because he doesn't need to.  Plenty of voters will independently conclude on their own that he's too old.  Thus, there is a slight drawback to Obama picking a running mate who's over 70: He legitimizes the idea that even old geezers are capable of running the government (doesn't really matter that Obama was never explicitly arguing otherwise).

I see this only becoming an issue if a large portion of the electorate feels that Obama will somehow leave office before his term is up.

It doesn't matter if they think he'll leave office before the term is up.  If Obama picks a running mate who's as old as McCain, he'll effectively be making the statement "No, McCain is *not* too old to be president" (otherwise, why would I be picking someone his age as my VP?)".  This might persuade some people into thinking "Gee, I guess McCain really isn't *that* old...."  Of course, the number of votes that might actually switch because of this is miniscule, but the same is true of all VP considerations.

[Mr. Morden]

I certainly see the logic, but I don't think that people expect the VP to be running the government (no more Cheneys ).

I don't think we're that far apart on this, and I agree that Obama might pick an older running mate, and that other considerations might override this issue.  But, to clarify, part of the point I was trying to make is that it doesn't matter if people "expect" Obama to leave office early or if people expect the VP to run the government.  The standard line that presidential candidates always make is that they're picking someone who *could* take over as president if the need arose, so whoever Obama picks, the implicit message he's sending is "This person could run the governement if the need arose".

[Mr. Morden]

Yay! I feel so delighted that somebody agrees with my Vice Presidential shortlists and selections for Barack Obama and John McCain respectively. I never knew I could have much influence .

I'd also put a lot of money on Reed and Huntsman because I"m sure the house is underbetting them.

Actually, Reed has been getting more and more buzz recently, and is now all the way up to 7.9 (and 5th place) on Intrade for the Dem. VP nomination.  Huntsman, however, is still getting little to no buzz.

[Mr. Morden]

Reid has taken himself out......but damn I didn't know he was ever "in".

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080714/ap_on_el_pr/reed_obama;_ylt=AptmFGzfl8nkA6mD09bI_Tis0NUE

I think you mean "Reed", not "Reid".

Anyway, that statement doesn't go nearly as far as the Shermanesque denial from Strickland.  "He's not interested" doesn't necessarily mean much.  Biden also said that he wasn't interested, and didn't really want it, but then when he was asked if he would accept the job if offered, he said yes, he would take it if Obama actually offered.  Other people, like Edwards, have publicly said they're not interested, while privately telling people that they're open to it.

He also says that he hasn't been asked for vetting info.  Again, I'm not sure how to read that.  The Obama campaign has asked people not to reveal if they're being vetted, and I'm not sure if they've gotten through everyone on the list for vetting information anyway.