Zogby Interactive: This is officially the funniest sh**t ever.

[Grad Students are the Worst]

http://www.zogby.com/50state/



Highlights:

- Obama +9 in North Carolina
- Obama leads in South Carolina, Arkansas, Texas
- Obama up 16 in New Mexico
- Obama leads in Arizona
- Serious Barrmentum
- Iowa: Safe McCain

[Gravis Marketing]

I think Iowa is miscoded in the map because the poll data show a small lead for Obama.

[MSUfan]

LOL!

[Grad Students are the Worst]

Additional nugget from New Mexico:

"Barr beats McCain among Independents."

[Verily]

The colors make no sense. Iowa is blue and has Obama up by four, but North Carolina is purple and has him ahead by nine.

[MarkWarner08]

The Literary Digest poll is back! 

[Democratic Hawk]

Given "purple" states to candidate leading; while MT, ND and NV are "too close to call"

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Whatever else , Zogby seems to be reporting identity politics. Age-based identity politics with McCain leading among seniors possibly everywhere!

Young voters ain't giving Obama a bounce in Kentucky; he trails McCain, 44 to 39

Dave

[Platypus]

South Carolina?

[Ronnie]

LOL @ Arizona

Oh, and Obama leading McCain by 16 in New Mexico?  I think I'm going to sh*t my pants.

[The Mikado]

My favorites:

Nevada:

Summary:
Obama - 38%
McCain - 38%
Barr - 9%
Nader - 2%
Someone else - 6%
Undecided - 8%

McCain gets only 64% of Republicans, but race is still tied. Among Independents, it's McCain 37, Obama 25%, Barr 15%.

Arizona:

Summary:
Obama - 42%
McCain - 39%
Barr - 7%
Nader - 2%
Someone else - 5%  (WTF?)
Undecided - 5%

9% of Republicans choose Barr, including 16% of the Very Conservative. Obama beats McCain among Independents, 51%-28%.   (IN ARIZONA?)
Electoral Votes: 10, Too close to call

State: Oklahoma

Summary:
McCain - 42%
Obama - 37%
Barr - 9%
Nader - 2%
Someone else - 5%
Undecided - 6%

One of 5 Oklahomans is not happy with major party choices. History says most will pull lever for McCain.
Electoral Votes: 7, for McCain

Oklahoma's now a swing state!  (Or Zogby should get out of the polling business)  Also, neither Barr nor Nader nor "someone else" will be on the ballot there.

State: Minnesota

Summary:
Obama - 48%
McCain - 32%
Barr - 8%
Nader - < 1%
Someone else - 4%
Undecided - 7%

Barr's 8% makes a bad situation worse for McCain.
Electoral Votes: 10, for Obama

State: Michigan

Summary:
Obama - 47%
McCain - 33%
Barr - 6% (In Michigan?)
Nader - 2%
Someone else - 4%
Undecided - 8%

Narrow Obama lead among whites coupled with huge advantage with minorities put him comfortably on top.
Electoral Votes: 17, for Obama

Hit the presses, Obama landslide in Michigan, take it out of the swing column!  (Or, ignore Zogby)

State: Indiana

Summary:
McCain - 40%
Obama - 39%
Barr - 7%
Nader - < 1%
Someone else - 3%
Undecided - 10%

Obama big over McCain among Independents, 45%-21%. The youngest (heavy for Obama) and the oldest (heavy for McCain) voters offset each other.
Electoral Votes: 11, Too close to call

Dead even, eh?

State: Arkansas

Summary:
Obama - 41%
McCain - 39%
Barr - 4%
Nader - 1%
Someone else - 8%
Undecided - 8%

Will minority turnout and Bob Barr make this a nail-biter? Will Bill Clinton make any homecoming trips on behalf of Obama?
Electoral Votes: 6, Too close to call

Arkansas dead even?

State: Georgia

Summary:
McCain - 44%
Obama - 38%
Barr - 8%
Nader - < 1%
Someone else - 3%
Undecided - 7%

Even with Barr breaking 8%, McCain still has the upper hand. Obama will need lots of new voters.
Electoral Votes: 15, for McCain

Barrmentum!

State: Vermont

Summary:
Candidate 1 - 31%Candidate 2 - 24%Candidate 3 - 15%

Obama in a runaway.
Electoral Votes: 3, for Obama

State: New Hampshire

Summary:
Obama - 40%
McCain - 37%
Barr - 10%
Nader - 2%
Someone else - 7%
Undecided - 4%

McCain, Obama nearly even with Independents. In a tight race, will 9% stay with Barr and help Obama win the state
Electoral Votes: 4, for Obama

[Democratic Hawk]

South Carolina?

Yep. According to Zogby, it's Obama 42; McCain 41

As for maps, it gets better:



Obama 268 (leads by 6% or more)
McCain 73 (leads by 6% or more)
Toss-up 197 (leads within 5% either way)

Dave

[Hashemite]

Oh my god, this has got to be the funniest ever.

State:  Arizona

Summary:
Obama - 42%
McCain - 39%
Barr - 7%
Nader - 2%
Someone else - 5%
Undecided - 5%

9% of Republicans choose Barr, including 16% of the Very Conservative. Obama beats McCain among Independents, 51%-28%.

State:  New Mexico

Summary:
Obama - 49%
McCain - 33%
Barr - 9%
Nader - 2%
Someone else - 4%
Undecided - 4%

State:  Arkansas

Summary:
Obama - 41%
McCain - 39%
Barr - 4%
Nader - 1%
Someone else - 8%
Undecided - 8%

State:  Oklahoma

Summary:
McCain - 42%
Obama - 37%
Barr - 9%
Nader - 2%
Someone else - 5%
Undecided - 6%

One of 5 Oklahomans is not happy with major party choices. History says most will pull lever for McCain.

State:  Texas

Summary:
McCain - 42%
Obama - 39%
Barr - 6%
Nader - 2%
Someone else - 4%
Undecided - 7%

Surprisingly close race due to Barr's 6% and Obama's dominance among African-Americans and young voters. Obama leads Hispanics by only 5%.

State:  Kentucky

Summary:
McCain - 44%
Obama - 39%
Barr - 3%
Nader - 1%
Someone else - 6%
Undecided - 8%

Online polls are the best.

[The Mikado]

I'm telling you people, Vermont is the funny one.

[Hashemite]

Can Zogby start these in Canada?

"Liberals lead big in Alberta"

"Conservatives leading the GTA"

"NDP at 35% in Quebec"

"Liberals in trouble in PEI"

"60% of Quebecois say Dion has charisma"

"Close race between Conservatives, Marijuana in Nunavut"

Or maybe France:

"Sarkozy leads big in Haute-Garonne"

"Le Pen polling 20% in Cantal"

"Royal leads in Alpes-Maritimes and Var"

"Sarkozy trails Royal in Neuilly, western Paris"

Or the UK:

"Conservatives set to landslide Wales"

"Conservatives trail badly in Cities of London and Westminster"

"Tories winning the Northeast"

"Labour winning southern England"

[The Mikado]

Or the UK:

"Conservatives set to landslide Wales"

"Conservatives trail badly in Cities of London and Westminster"

"Tories winning the Northeast"

"Labour winning southern England"

You forgot "Labour, Conservatives tied in Northern Ireland."

[Josh/Devilman88]

These polls to show the trend in the states, or at least the computer using people in the state.

[Sam Spade]

Hey, why not?

I guess the Freepers are not that big into supporting McCain.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Well, looks like we should hand it to Josh about NC and Jamespol about OK

[CARLHAYDEN]

http://www.zogby.com/50state/



Highlights:

- Obama +9 in North Carolina
- Obama leads in South Carolina, Arkansas, Texas
- Obama up 16 in New Mexico
- Obama leads in Arizona
- Serious Barrmentum
- Iowa: Safe McCain

First, if you look at the map, and read the data, Obama leads in Iowa (its NOT "Safe McCain" as you assert).  

Second, Zogby has spent years developing both techniques and data base for his interactive method, which given the problems with current polling, may be the future of survey research.
While he had absurd results in 2004. his current results are vastly improved.

Third, from other unpublished surveys I have seen, I suspect that the "undecided" category is likely to break favorably for McCain.

Fourth, his numbers for Nader seem to be right on the money (several published polls have, IMHO, greatly exaggerated the Nader vote).

Fifth, what most public polls are missing is the massive disgust with McCain (which shows up in the Zogby interactive poll as support for Barr).

[Verily]

Or the UK:

"Conservatives set to landslide Wales"

"Conservatives trail badly in Cities of London and Westminster"

"Tories winning the Northeast"

"Labour winning southern England"

You forgot "Labour, Conservatives tied in Northern Ireland."

Well, they are.

[Sam Spade]

I knew this thread could provide at least one comedy goldmine post if it was left up for long enough.

[Grad Students are the Worst]

First, if you look at the map, and read the data, Obama leads in Iowa (its NOT "Safe McCain" as you assert). 

Yep, someone already found that.

Second, Zogby has spent years developing both techniques and data base for his interactive method, which given the problems with current polling, may be the future of survey research.
While he had absurd results in 2004. his current results are vastly improved.

hehehe.

[The Mikado]

Well, looks like we should hand it to Josh about NC and Jamespol about OK

True.  Who would've thought Obama would be doing better in NC than in VA?

BTW, they still haven't fixed VT.

[Tender Branson]

Ahahahahaha. Crazy stuff. And now we have to go through this every month.

But why the hell didn't they poll the crucial swing states of Alaska, Kansas, Mississippi, Montana and North Dakota ?