Georgia State Primary -- Tuesday, July 15, 2008

[Joe Biden 2020]

Discuss...

[MarkWarner08]

GA-12 is one contest to watch. Rep. John Barrow is running against a black State Senator. If Barrow's been running ads featuring an endorsement from Obama. If black turnout is high, Barrow could be in trouble.

[Sam Spade]

What's happening with Braun vs. his challenger in GA-10 who I can't remember his name?

[MarkWarner08]

Fleming outrasied Broun through the race, but Broun edged him out this last quarter. I expect a close Broun win -- but Fleming win wouldn't surprise me either. The geographic dynamic that produced Broun's narrow special election win should still be at work here.

[Aizen]

Who is going to win the Dem nod for the Senate?

[DownWithTheLeft]

Who is going to win the Dem nod for the Senate?

Better question: Does it matter?

[Dan the Roman]

Who is going to win the Dem nod for the Senate?

Better question: Does it matter?

To the same degree that the Republicans would have been better off running Ognowski in MA than Beatty. Running a credible candidate that can win 42 or 43% is better than running a joke. Cardwell is a joke. And Jones is much worse than a joke, he could do real damage to Obama.

[MarkWarner08]

Who is going to win the Dem nod for the Senate?

Better question: Does it matter?

To the same degree that the Republicans would have been better off running Ognowski in MA than Beatty. Running a credible candidate that can win 42 or 43% is better than running a joke. Cardwell is a joke. And Jones is much worse than a joke, he could do real damage to Obama.

What do you think of Martin? He seems like a competent, boring white Democrat.

[Meeker]

In regards to GA-10, Whitehead seemed particularly offensive towards Athens, thus causing that whole dynamic. The turnout is also probably going to be more normal than during the special election. There may be Ron Paulites out in force for Broun now though.

[Meeker]

There was a good article in the Politico today about both primary challenges. Basically Broun's challenger was aggressive and appeared to be gaining steam, but was likely to fall short. Barrow's challenger has been running a lackluster campaign with only a few radio and TV ads, while Barrow has already spent more than $500,000 and has been campaigning like crazy. However, the Democratic primary electorate in the district is about 130% black and some white liberals may also be angry at Barrow for his conservative stances...

[Brittain33]

There was a good article in the Politico today about both primary challenges. Basically Broun's challenger was aggressive and appeared to be gaining steam, but was likely to fall short. Barrow's challenger has been running a lackluster campaign with only a few radio and TV ads, while Barrow has already spent more than $500,000 and has been campaigning like crazy. However, the Democratic primary electorate in the district is about 130% black and some white liberals may also be angry at Barrow for his conservative stances...

A Kossack from the area said that while all of this is true, Thomas is known as a flake and has weak relations with other African-Americans, and has worked with the Republicans in the legislature, which is why they gave her a committee chair. This would explain why she can't raise money or isn't trying. A stronger candidate might have given Barrow a run for his money, but for some reason this district is cursed with an abundance of bad talent.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Bumping for results. So far Paul Broun and John Barrow are creaming their primary challengers -- it's 76-24 Broun with 11% in, and 84-16 Barrow with 10% in.

6% in statewide and Jim Martin and Vernon Jones are, unsurprisingly, leading the pack with 39% and 34%, respectively.

Results are here.

[Dan the Roman]

Hmm, given how racially polarized all the Democratic races are, I would be a bit cautious.

As for Martin, he is a perfectly serviceable Democrat of the type who would have won 51% or 52% in the early 1990s, and will these days win 42% or 43%. He will not embarrass the party as Cardwell or Jones would, but I doubt anyone thinks he has a serious shot at winning. He's a rebuilding the party type person you run because you want someone viable for your supporters to vote for lest they get used to voting for Chambliss.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Hmm, given how racially polarized all the Democratic races are, I would be a bit cautious.

Yeah, I'm sure once Atlanta reports, Jones' total will shoot up.

[Hash]

Who is going to win the Dem nod for the Senate?

Better question: Does it matter?

I think the Dem Senate ballot question is:

"Which of these Democratic sacrificial lambs do you wish to see slaughtered in November?"

[Democratic Hawk]

"Which of these Democratic sacrificial lambs do you wish to see slaughtered in November?"

Well if any of them have to be slaughtered I'd rather it be Vernon Jones. With 47% in, Martin leads Jones by 0.1% (56 votes)

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

And with 52% in, Jones (38.8%) now leads Martin (35.9%) by 6,468 votes

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

And not a precinct in from DeKalb yet

[Sam Spade]

hmmm...  Broun and Barrow simply slaughtered their opponents, so it looks like both are going to be in there for a while (well Barrow always has to worry a little bit in off-Presidential election years when black turnout is down, which won't be this year).

As for Senate, it looks to be over to me in favor of Jones, considering what precincts are out.

[Dan the Roman]

Well Jones prospects in the runoff are probably questionable.

[HardRCafé]

It looks like the big news is Vernon Jones finishing first for U.S. Senate and Jeff Lewis losing for State House.

Rand Knight at 5%.  So much for the teachers.

[Sam Spade]

Well Jones prospects in the runoff are probably questionable.

Yep.

[Torie]

Georgia has a runoff?

[Dan the Roman]

For primaries. They used to have it for the general, but in 1996 Max Cleland came first in the November election but was under 50%. The Democrats had lost a seat in 1992 when Wyche Fowler had come in first in November and then lost the runoff(Democrats always did badly in runoffs because African American turnout was down). Fearing Cleland would lose, the Georgia legislature abolished the runoff for the general in December of 1996 and simply declared Cleland elected.

[Tender Branson]

A complete failure by InsiderAdvantage:

http://www.wsbtv.com/politics/16843551/detail.html

From now on I will only trust Strategic Vision for accurate GA polls:

http://www.strategicvision.biz/political/georgia_poll_060208.htm