Rasmussen's latest

[ATFFL]

His daily trackignpoll is out and Bush is up 4%, 49% for him with 45% for Kerry.

He has also increased his daily sample from 500 to 1000.  THis means last night's sample has the same number as the previous two nights.  Snce he was polling 47% for 3 days straight, we can assume he polled about 51% last night.

Tonight's poll will be the first one to include the reaction to Cheney's and McCain's speech.  The question is will Bush poll 51% or so again and get his tracking number up to 50% for the first time for either candidate, or will he stay stuck at 49% or even dip down.

[A18]

No way of knowing. But I'll be bold and predict he breaks 50.

[The Vorlon]

These are the single day results from Rasmussen

The big jump in today's Bot-poll was actually NOT Bush having a big sample, it was a big sample from 3 days ago for Kerry dropping off.

Bush won last night's inaugural 1000 person sample by about 6% or so.

Bush has "won" 5 of the last 7 samples by "about" 49 to 45 actually.

The Results in this graph are NOT exact, as Rasmussen does not actually issue a 1 day results - reweights the entire sample as data drops off and on.  For example, if you take any three single days and calculate the 3 day average, it differs by a few tenths of a percent from Rasmussens 3 day number due to his reweighting of the ENTIRE 3 day sample.

They should however be within 0.3% for any one day however.

The Bot-Man actually issues enough data that, if I actually cared enough, could do an exact 1 day result using Rasmussen's 39/35/26 weight (Last nights sample was about 38/36/26 so it would have been weighted back a couple points from the 50/44 to about 49/45 again)  But for a few tenths, I just don't care

Enjoy

Just another service from your friendly neighborhood Vorlon..

Bush is up a tad over 4% in the 3 day average, and a bit under 3 in the 7 day roll.

Bush's one day Job Approval was about 57%

[The Vorlon]

No way of knowing. But I'll be bold and predict he breaks 50.

You May beright..

The sample dropping tonoght is the weakest of the three for Bush in the current average.

He needs about a 51 tonight is all to "get the round" and get posted as a 50% score.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

It looks like there wasn't any further bounce in Rasmussen's Thursday night sample...its still Bush +4.  I imagine most of these interviews were done before Bush's speech though.

[A18]

He does have 54% approval though.

[The Vorlon]

It looks like there wasn't any further bounce in Rasmussen's Thursday night sample...its still Bush +4.  I imagine most of these interviews were don't before Bush's speech though.

Bush won the Thursday night sample 48/47

The "Zell miller" sample was actually Kerry's best sample in 4 days.

If it's a blip or not we'll know soon