NJ: Rasmussen: Obama leads New Jersey by 5%
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Author Topic: NJ: Rasmussen: Obama leads New Jersey by 5%  (Read 3279 times)
Alcon
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« on: July 09, 2008, 04:26:27 PM »
New Poll: New Jersey President by Rasmussen on 2008-06-07

Summary: D: 44%, R: 39%, U: 17%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

Obama 44% (-4)
McCain 39% (un)
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Flying Dog
Jtfdem
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« Reply #1 on: July 09, 2008, 04:29:24 PM »
ick.
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exopolitician
MATCHU[D]
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« Reply #2 on: July 09, 2008, 04:31:04 PM »
bowchikawowow.
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Democratic Hawk
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« Reply #3 on: July 09, 2008, 04:32:22 PM »
Sad
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ChrisFromNJ
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« Reply #4 on: July 09, 2008, 04:41:09 PM »
So McCain didn't gain any support, Obama just lost it?

Doesn't make much sense at all.

I look forward to New Jersey getting the Republican's hopes up again and then shooting them down come Election Day.

Obama by 10 at least.
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Verily
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« Reply #5 on: July 09, 2008, 04:42:32 PM »
*Yawn*

You will note stupid things wrong, like McCain leading men by twenty while Obama leads women by 24. And, of course, the conspicuous large undecided that always characterizes NJ.
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agcatter
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« Reply #6 on: July 09, 2008, 04:44:10 PM »
I don't know of any Republicans left who fall for fool's gold New Jersey.
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Smash255
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« Reply #7 on: July 09, 2008, 04:48:59 PM »
Your typical NJ poll a few monthsprior to election day.  Obama leads by 14
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Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck
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« Reply #8 on: July 09, 2008, 04:52:43 PM »
Eh.  Typical. 
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Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #9 on: July 09, 2008, 05:01:41 PM »
Quote from: Smash255 on July 09, 2008, 04:48:59 PM
Your typical NJ poll a few monthsprior to election day.  Obama leads by 14

All hail NJ, sucker of the GOP monies!
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DownWithTheLeft
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« Reply #10 on: July 09, 2008, 05:04:05 PM »
Let me get this straight, Lautenberg is up 13 but Obama is only up 5?  But results are ridiculous.  Think Obama up about 10 and Lautenberg up about 5-6
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« Reply #11 on: July 09, 2008, 05:06:18 PM »
Quote from: Wiz in Wis on July 09, 2008, 05:01:41 PM
Quote from: Smash255 on July 09, 2008, 04:48:59 PM
Your typical NJ poll a few monthsprior to election day.  Obama leads by 14

All hail NJ, sucker of the GOP monies!

Nah, Republicans are generally smart enough to not bother with New Jersey specifically. There's absolutely zero return on your money for advertising in the New York market, and advertising in Philadelphia covers the much more important Pennsylvania. (Incidentally, this may explain why South Jersey has been politically stagnant nationally while North Jersey trends towards the Democrats; interesting thought.)

And DWTL just hit the other problem with the poll. Lautenberg safe but Obama vulnerable in NJ? Umm... ... ...
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Fmr. Pres. Duke
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« Reply #12 on: July 09, 2008, 05:40:53 PM »
Nice to see a non-uni poll out of Jersey. While McCain isn't winning here, Obama isn't winning it by 14, either.
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The Mikado
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« Reply #13 on: July 09, 2008, 05:45:33 PM »
Oh, no!  I sure hope the Republicans don't invest large amounts of time, money, personnel, and resources to this swing state!  That would be horrible and would ensure Obama's defeat!  Please don't spend ten million dollars on New Jersey, John McCain!  Please don't spend the last week of the election in a Trenton-Camden-Newark swing!  I shudder at the horror of the thought of you pulling your volunteers and staffers out of Pennsylvania and sending them to Jersey!
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Ronnie
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« Reply #14 on: July 09, 2008, 08:00:15 PM »
Bush was within 6 points of carrying NJ.  I know McCain isn't going to win the state, but if this was a normal election year he could very well carry it.
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CultureKing
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« Reply #15 on: July 09, 2008, 09:26:12 PM »
Quote from: Ronnie on July 09, 2008, 08:00:15 PM
Bush was within 6 points of carrying NJ.  I know McCain isn't going to win the state, but if this was a normal election year he could very well carry it.
No! He could win it this year, really! All he has to do is spent oodles of money and it is his, I guarentee it...

(shifty eyes)
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DownWithTheLeft
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« Reply #16 on: July 09, 2008, 09:40:41 PM »
Quote from: Ronnie on July 09, 2008, 08:00:15 PM
Bush was within 6 points of carrying NJ.  I know McCain isn't going to win the state, but if this was a normal election year he could very well carry it.
So your optimistic about NJ but consider Obama the for-sure winner.  Good call
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Torie
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« Reply #17 on: July 09, 2008, 09:56:41 PM »
« Edited: July 09, 2008, 09:58:33 PM by Torie »
A poll with 17% undecided doesn't do much for me. That percentage is in equipoise in NJ? 

In any event, given Ras gives Obama about a 5% national lead, this poll suggests that NJ is a cusp state. I doubt that.
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Ronnie
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« Reply #18 on: July 09, 2008, 09:57:22 PM »
Quote from: Sen. DownWithTheLeft on July 09, 2008, 09:40:41 PM
Quote from: Ronnie on July 09, 2008, 08:00:15 PM
Bush was within 6 points of carrying NJ.  I know McCain isn't going to win the state, but if this was a normal election year he could very well carry it.
So your optimistic about NJ but consider Obama the for-sure winner.  Good call

When did I say I was optimistic about New Jersey in this election year?  All I said is that if this was a normal election year without an unpopular incumbent, he could very well carry the state.
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DownWithTheLeft
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« Reply #19 on: July 09, 2008, 09:58:49 PM »
Quote from: Torie on July 09, 2008, 09:56:41 PM
A poll with 17% undecided doesn't do much for me. That percentage is in equipoise in NJ? 

In any event, given Ras gives Obama about a 5% national lead, this poll suggests that NJ is a cusp state. I doubt that.
Actual, that's almost low
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BamaObama
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« Reply #20 on: July 09, 2008, 11:17:39 PM »
Quote from: Sen. DownWithTheLeft on July 09, 2008, 05:04:05 PM
Let me get this straight, Lautenberg is up 13 but Obama is only up 5?  But results are ridiculous.  Think Obama up about 10 and Lautenberg up about 5-6

Not to hijack the thread, but I gotta know where you're from in Alabama?
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #21 on: July 09, 2008, 11:41:05 PM »
Seems a bit low. Obama - with leaners - just ahead by 3% ? More like 10% on Election Day ...
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« Reply #22 on: July 09, 2008, 11:41:49 PM »
Quote from: Torie on July 09, 2008, 09:56:41 PM
A poll with 17% undecided doesn't do much for me. That percentage is in equipoise in NJ? 

NJ is full of independents who remain undecided through most of the election and then break for the Democrat en masse at the end. Always happens like clockwork.
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Ronnie
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« Reply #23 on: July 10, 2008, 12:22:35 AM »
Quote from: fezzyfestoon on July 09, 2008, 11:42:25 PM
McCain will win New Jersey, end of story.

I find this surprising from someone who doesn't even support McCain.

How do you back up this statement?
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Queen Mum Inks.LWC
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« Reply #24 on: July 10, 2008, 12:25:26 AM »
Alcon, buddy, July is the 7th month, not the sixth.  Here's the working link to the database entry, with the corrected date: https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2008/pollsa.php?action=indpoll&id=3420080707016
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