NJ: Rasmussen: Obama leads New Jersey by 5%

[Smash255]

Bush was within 6 points of carrying NJ.  I know McCain isn't going to win the state, but if this was a normal election year he could very well carry it.

It was about 9 points more Dem than the national average and that was after the 9/11 bump.  That is pretty much the best the GOP can get in any year.  No way does McCain win it in a normal election year.

[WalterMitty]

let us be fair and honest obamaphiles.

if rasmussen released a poll tomorrow showing  mccain with a 5 point lead in indiana...you folks would be tripping all over yourself. 

cant have it both ways.

[Flying Dog]

let us be fair and honest obamaphiles.

if rasmussen released a poll tomorrow showing  mccain with a 5 point lead in indiana...you folks would be tripping all over yourself. 

cant have it both ways.

Well, since the last poll had Obama up by 1%, id be mildly depressed.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

A poll with 17% undecided doesn't do much for me. That percentage is in equipoise in NJ? 

NJ is full of independents who remain undecided through most of the election and then break for the Democrat en masse at the end. Always happens like clockwork.

Yea, since about 2002 NJ has been EXTREMELY stubborn like that.  Look at the last 4 or 5 statewide elections.  The exact voters almost always go the exact same way.  Dem by 9 or 10 in the end. 

I actually thought NJ would go the way of New England a little bit with their sudden jump in social liberalism since 2000, (not to mentions Gore's 16 pt win in 2000) with things like death penalty abolishment, civil unions and such gaining enormous support in the state.... but it seems that there are still quite enough very well-off suburban families in the northern part of the state that really just want, as Bill Maher put it, "a mean old man who will protect my money".  Northwest Jersey is staunchly Republican. 

It's such fool's gold for the GOP because it is NOT a strongly Democratic state by any means.  It is moderately Democratic at a very, very, very high level of stubbornness. 

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

let us be fair and honest obamaphiles.

if rasmussen released a poll tomorrow showing  mccain with a 5 point lead in indiana...you folks would be tripping all over yourself. 

cant have it both ways.

Uh Bush won Indiana by 20 points. Kerry won New Jersey by 6 points (inside the margin of error of this poll.)

So how are those even remotely comparable?

[WalterMitty]

let us be fair and honest obamaphiles.

if rasmussen released a poll tomorrow showing  mccain with a 5 point lead in indiana...you folks would be tripping all over yourself. 

cant have it both ways.

Uh Bush won Indiana by 20 points. Kerry won New Jersey by 6 points (inside the margin of error of this poll.)

So how are those even remotely comparable?

you get my point, brtd.

but just for you, ill pick another example...

if rasmussen releases a poll showing mccain ahead 5 ponts in florida, you all would convince yourselves it is somehow 'lean obama'

but new jersey is 'summer polling' or something.

for the record, i wouldnt be surprised if obama wins nj by 10.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

let us be fair and honest obamaphiles.

if rasmussen released a poll tomorrow showing  mccain with a 5 point lead in indiana...you folks would be tripping all over yourself. 

cant have it both ways.

Uh Bush won Indiana by 20 points. Kerry won New Jersey by 6 points (inside the margin of error of this poll.)

So how are those even remotely comparable?

you get my point, brtd.

but just for you, ill pick another example...

if rasmussen releases a poll showing mccain ahead 5 ponts in florida, you all would convince yourselves it is somehow 'lean obama'

I sure as hell wouldn't, nor do I know of anyone else here who would argue McCain +5 = "Lean Obama". Maybe these are more of these hordes of imaginary people you believe in who believe Obama will win Kansas?

but new jersey is 'summer polling' or something.

Uh, more like polling within the MoE of what's expected.

And note the standard behavior of NJ polling as well.

[Smash255]

let us be fair and honest obamaphiles.

if rasmussen released a poll tomorrow showing  mccain with a 5 point lead in indiana...you folks would be tripping all over yourself. 

cant have it both ways.

you get my point, brtd.

but just for you, ill pick another example...

if rasmussen releases a poll showing mccain ahead 5 ponts in florida, you all would convince yourselves it is somehow 'lean obama'

but new jersey is 'summer polling' or something.

for the record, i wouldnt be surprised if obama wins nj by 10.

Mitty

NJ polling this far out is about as reliable as your predictions....  Year after year after year the state polls more GOP than the actual vote.  Just ask Bush twice, Kean Jr, Forrester, etc
Uh Bush won Indiana by 20 points. Kerry won New Jersey by 6 points (inside the margin of error of this poll.)

So how are those even remotely comparable?

[classical liberal]

I don't buy for a minute that NJ and MT are equally good (+5) for Obama.