WI: Rasmussen: Obama ahead by 10%
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  WI: Rasmussen: Obama ahead by 10%
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Author Topic: WI: Rasmussen: Obama ahead by 10%  (Read 2065 times)
Josh/Devilman88
josh4bush
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« on: July 10, 2008, 03:49:36 PM »

New Poll: Wisconsin President by Rasmussen on 2008-07-08

Summary: D: 52%, R: 42%, U: 6%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

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Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #1 on: July 10, 2008, 03:59:59 PM »

Not. A. Swing. State.
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Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck
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« Reply #2 on: July 10, 2008, 04:26:20 PM »

Not surprising, Wisconsin is a very good fit for Obama.  I'd expect the final margin to be a tad less than this though.  Something around a 9 pt win.  54-45 maybe.

The places in which Obama must play defense seem very few in number.  Maybe only Pennsylvania and Michigan.   
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elcorazon
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« Reply #3 on: July 10, 2008, 04:39:18 PM »

Not surprising, Wisconsin is a very good fit for Obama.  I'd expect the final margin to be a tad less than this though.  Something around a 9 pt win.  54-45 maybe.

The places in which Obama must play defense seem very few in number.  Maybe only Pennsylvania and Michigan.   
New Hampshire, possibly.  And if his defense fails in either PA or MI, he could be in serious trouble, so although it's not a lot of states, it doesn't exactly allow me to ooze with confidence either.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #4 on: July 10, 2008, 05:19:00 PM »

So he's doing the same here as he is in IL lol... at least one of these is wrong.
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Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #5 on: July 10, 2008, 05:20:47 PM »

So he's doing the same here as he is in IL lol... at least one of these is wrong.

Which one comports with other polls and logic


This one
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CARLHAYDEN
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« Reply #6 on: July 10, 2008, 05:48:01 PM »


Josh,

By my reading it 50% for Obama (not 52%), with 39% for McCain (not 42%), and 5% for Others (not 0%).
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Alcon
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« Reply #7 on: July 10, 2008, 05:58:11 PM »


Josh,

By my reading it 50% for Obama (not 52%), with 39% for McCain (not 42%), and 5% for Others (not 0%).

That's without leaners included.  Most polling companies do one of two things:

1. Poll at the beginning, and then re-ask the question later, or ask who the respondent is leaning toward, the report the "number with leans" as the topline.

2. Don't try to elicit leans.

Rassy does the first, and indicates with and without leans, but uses "without leans" as the topline.  There's really no reason not to use "leans."  It's just a way of prodding people into realizing the question is, if the election were held today.  It just produces results with fewer undecideds, without forcing responses.

The 52-42 is in the link.  No one said "other" is at 0%.  It is listed in the Full Poll Details link.
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Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #8 on: July 10, 2008, 06:02:32 PM »


Josh,

By my reading it 50% for Obama (not 52%), with 39% for McCain (not 42%), and 5% for Others (not 0%).

That's without leaners included.  Most polling companies do one of two things:

1. Poll at the beginning, and then re-ask the question later, or ask who the respondent is leaning toward, the report the "number with leans" as the topline.

2. Don't try to elicit leans.

Rassy does the first, and indicates with and without leans, but uses "without leans" as the topline.  There's really no reason not to use "leans."  It's just a way of prodding people into realizing the question is, if the election were held today.  It just produces results with fewer undecideds, without forcing responses.

The 52-42 is in the link.  No one said "other" is at 0%.  It is listed in the Full Poll Details link.

Don't start you two
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Alcon
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« Reply #9 on: July 10, 2008, 06:03:36 PM »

No, his question is actually totally fair -- I keep forgetting that the numbers are leaners and getting confused, too.

The "displaying other" debate we won't get into, I'll just tell him where to find the numbers Smiley
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ChrisFromNJ
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« Reply #10 on: July 10, 2008, 06:05:02 PM »

Wisconsin will definitely tighten. I wouldn't call it a Safe Obama state - but I would consider it in the same class as Missouri with McCain.
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Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #11 on: July 10, 2008, 07:36:36 PM »

Wisconsin will definitely tighten. I wouldn't call it a Safe Obama state - but I would consider it in the same class as Missouri with McCain.

I wouldn't necessarily say that. I know this is worth about a bucket of warm spit, but this election feels a lot different than 2000/2004. I'm saw general parity between Bush and Kerry/Gore enthusiasm in those elections. I have yet to see one McCain bumper sticker here. I see Obama ones daily. He played very well here in the primary, and every Hillary supporter I know is now enthusiastic for Obama. I really think that Wisconsin, Minnesota, and even Iowa will be margins larger than 5%
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Aizen
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« Reply #12 on: July 10, 2008, 07:55:20 PM »

Considering how well Obama plays in Minnesota and Iowa, it's only natural that Wisconsin shows the same love.
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Flying Dog
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« Reply #13 on: July 10, 2008, 08:01:32 PM »

Good....good....
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Democratic Hawk
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« Reply #14 on: July 10, 2008, 08:10:09 PM »

Smiley
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Kaine for Senate '18
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« Reply #15 on: July 10, 2008, 10:07:15 PM »

Good poll to see.
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Boris
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« Reply #16 on: July 10, 2008, 10:26:33 PM »

these polls don't make any sense and are so gay
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Kaine for Senate '18
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« Reply #17 on: July 10, 2008, 10:27:03 PM »


Good response.
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Rococo4
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« Reply #18 on: July 11, 2008, 12:50:21 AM »

Wisconsin will definitely tighten. I wouldn't call it a Safe Obama state - but I would consider it in the same class as Missouri with McCain.

That seems right to me.
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