WI: Rasmussen: Obama ahead by 10%

[Wiz in Wis]

Not. A. Swing. State.

[Wiz in Wis]

So he's doing the same here as he is in IL lol... at least one of these is wrong.

Which one comports with other polls and logic


This one

[Wiz in Wis]

New Poll: Wisconsin President by Rasmussen on 2008-07-08

Summary: D: 52%, R: 42%, U: 6%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

Josh,

By my reading it 50% for Obama (not 52%), with 39% for McCain (not 42%), and 5% for Others (not 0%).

That's without leaners included.  Most polling companies do one of two things:

1. Poll at the beginning, and then re-ask the question later, or ask who the respondent is leaning toward, the report the "number with leans" as the topline.

2. Don't try to elicit leans.

Rassy does the first, and indicates with and without leans, but uses "without leans" as the topline.  There's really no reason not to use "leans."  It's just a way of prodding people into realizing the question is, if the election were held today.  It just produces results with fewer undecideds, without forcing responses.

The 52-42 is in the link.  No one said "other" is at 0%.  It is listed in the Full Poll Details link.

Don't start you two

[Wiz in Wis]

Wisconsin will definitely tighten. I wouldn't call it a Safe Obama state - but I would consider it in the same class as Missouri with McCain.

I wouldn't necessarily say that. I know this is worth about a bucket of warm spit, but this election feels a lot different than 2000/2004. I'm saw general parity between Bush and Kerry/Gore enthusiasm in those elections. I have yet to see one McCain bumper sticker here. I see Obama ones daily. He played very well here in the primary, and every Hillary supporter I know is now enthusiastic for Obama. I really think that Wisconsin, Minnesota, and even Iowa will be margins larger than 5%