Ford takes office January 1981

[YRABNNRM]

This isn't a timeline but merely a scenario intended to create discussion.

Let us say that by some stretch of the imagination that the Reagan/Ford ticket comes into fruition at the 1980 Republican National Convention. The ticket goes on to defeat Carter/Mondale in an election not too different from the one in real life. In early 1981, Hinckley assassinates President Reagan. Ford takes office and becomes President for the second time.

Now by 1985, Ford will have served about six and a half years as President of the United States (1974-1977, 1981-1985). With six and a half years under his belt, would Ford be able to run in 1984 and be President for over ten years by the end of his term? Would this create a constitutional crisis?

I suppose you could have Congress repeal the twenty second amendment but that's not quite as fun.

Anyway, what do you guys think a Ford Presidency from 1981 to whenever would look like?

Who would he pick as his VP? Dole? Bush?

Judging by your response to the question of Ford's ability to be elected in 1984, what would the election look like? Who would the Democrats nominate? If you don't believe that Ford could run, do you believe that his VP win?

I think this is a very interesting situation and I'll chime in with my thoughts later. I want to see what you guys have to say.

[CPT MikeyMike]

Now by 1985, Ford will have served about six and a half years as President of the United States (1974-1977, 1981-1985). With six and a half years under his belt, would Ford be able to run in 1984 and be President for over ten years by the end of his term? Would this create a constitutional crisis?

No - He would be ineligible to run.

Anyway, what do you guys think a Ford Presidency from 1981 to whenever would look like?

Hard to say. I don't think he would cut the budget and cut taxes like Reagan would have. The economy would probably still head into a recession and would probably recover at a slower pace (probably signs of recovery in mid-1984). Foreign policy wise, detente would be Ford's approach towards the Soviets though I wonder if Ford would try to bring in Henry Kissinger as Secretary of State or would he keep Reagan's pick - Al Haig. Overall, Ford would be better than Carter but probably would be treading water in his approval ratings (around 45%).

Who would he pick as his VP? Dole? Bush?

My guess would be either of those two. We know about Dole and Ford's past. In 1974, Ford nearly selected Bush as VP but went with Rockefeller instead. Both men would be terrific VP picks.

Judging by your response to the question of Ford's ability to be elected in 1984, what would the election look like? Who would the Democrats nominate? If you don't believe that Ford could run, do you believe that his VP win?

Since Ford couldn't run, his VP would be the nominee (probably) or maybe even Al Haig. As for the Democrats, if the nominee is still Walter Mondale, I think the Republicans win about 300-350 EV based off the choice to continue an average Ford-like administration or an inept Carter-like administration. A stronger Democrat may do better. By 1984, my guess is that the economy is recovering but the optimism that Reagan brought to the American heartbeat is probably not there so it probably going to  be a closer presidential race than in real life.

[Joe Republic]

This isn't a timeline but merely a scenario intended to create discussion.

Let us say that by some stretch of the imagination that the Reagan/Ford ticket comes into fruition at the 1980 Republican National Convention. The ticket goes on to defeat Carter/Mondale in an election not too different from the one in real life. In early 1981, Hinckley assassinates President Reagan. Ford takes office and becomes President for the second time.

Now by 1985, Ford will have served about six and a half years as President of the United States (1974-1977, 1981-1985). With six and a half years under his belt, would Ford be able to run in 1984 and be President for over ten years by the end of his term? Would this create a constitutional crisis?

Ford would have been eligible to run again in 1984:

"No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice, and no person who has held the office of President, or acted as President, for more than two years of a term to which some other person was elected President shall be elected to the office of the President more than once."

Ford would have served more than two years of two separate terms to which some other person was elected, but he would never have been elected President himself.  Therefore, he could be elected in his own right in 1984, but not able to run again.

[YRABNNRM]

Ah! Two very different answers. I like it.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Yes, he clearly would be able to run for election in 1984.  The question is would he? He'd be 71 then, older than Reagan at the start of his first term.  Incidentally, the Betty Ford Center opened in 1982.  Gerald being President instead of an ex-President may well impact that.  As for Ford's VP, how about Greenspan?  One of the conditions he gave for running with Reagan was that Greenspan should be Treasury Secretary.  (Another was Kissinger at State, but he's not eligible.)  Doubtful that Greenspan would be able to get the nomination in either 1984 or 1988 to be President in his own right though.

[Sensei]

In this scenario Ford would be the Conservative Uber-man, like Reagan in real life.