Newsweek: Obama +3
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Author Topic: Newsweek: Obama +3  (Read 1595 times)
Alcon
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« on: July 11, 2008, 11:44:07 PM »
Obama 44%
McCain 41%

Obama +15 was the last result.

http://www.newsweek.com/id/145556

Obama has lost among independents, but his support is much stronger than McCain's, on the fundamentals level.  His "hard" support is 61-39.  McCain's is the opposite, 39-61.
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Lief 🗽
Lief
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« Reply #1 on: July 11, 2008, 11:44:35 PM »
McCainmentum!
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #2 on: July 11, 2008, 11:54:03 PM »
Their polls are getting better ...
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Aizen
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« Reply #3 on: July 11, 2008, 11:56:10 PM »
I think McCain has made up a bit of ground though. About a week ago I would have said Obama has a 4-5 point lead. Now I think it's more like a 2-3 point lead
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Meeker
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« Reply #4 on: July 12, 2008, 12:07:05 AM »
Oh summer polling, you make me giggle.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #5 on: July 12, 2008, 12:12:22 AM »

Not really.
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Verily
Cuivienen
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« Reply #6 on: July 12, 2008, 12:17:17 AM »

No. Newsweek is renowned for wild swings in their polls. This may be closer to reality, but it is not an inherently "better" poll.
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they don't love you like i love you
BRTD
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« Reply #7 on: July 12, 2008, 12:18:13 AM »
Wow, a poll that actually looks accurate. Of course it's nothing more than sheer luck.
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Umengus
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« Reply #8 on: July 12, 2008, 05:45:46 AM »
lol

cfr party id of the poll.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #9 on: July 12, 2008, 05:54:39 AM »
Oh yeah.
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Fmr. Pres. Duke
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« Reply #10 on: July 12, 2008, 07:02:47 AM »
McCain must be ahead by 10.
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agcatter
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« Reply #11 on: July 12, 2008, 07:50:58 AM »
Newsweak polls.  Worthless.  Stick with Gallup and Rasmussen.  Even those are not relevant until after the conventions.  This one happened to be close.  Howard Fineman or whatever his name is will have his associates "fix" it next month.

Garbage in, garbage out.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #12 on: July 12, 2008, 08:01:57 AM »
Obama up three? This is bad. Anyone else agree that Idaho, South Dakota and Nebraska are now in play?
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CARLHAYDEN
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« Reply #13 on: July 12, 2008, 09:00:16 AM »
Just as I condemned Princeton's previous fifteen point lead for Obama "poll," so I must condemn this new Princeton "poll," but unlike others, will be specific.

Princeton has a record in its Newsweek polls of significantly overstating the Democrat support in about sixty per cent of its polls, and significantly overstating the Republican support in about ten percent of its polls.

If you look at the composition of the so called sample, you will see it is really weirdly skewed:

Party Affiliation     This poll     Reality     Analysis

Democrat                 32 %        42 %     Far fewer Democrats in poll than there should be.

Republican               31            32          About right

Independents          37            26          More independents in the poll than there should be.
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BRTD
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« Reply #14 on: July 12, 2008, 09:02:57 AM »
Quote from: Keystone Phil on July 12, 2008, 08:01:57 AM
Obama up three? This is bad. Anyone else agree that Idaho, South Dakota and Nebraska are now in play?

No one on this forum has every seriously said those states are.

You on the other hand are seriously arguing a Newsweek poll means anything.
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Sbane
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« Reply #15 on: July 12, 2008, 07:01:10 PM »
Hahaha when Newsweek released that Obama +15 poll they were trash and they are still trash now. They just got luckier this time.
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agcatter
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« Reply #16 on: July 12, 2008, 08:06:23 PM »
Carl, your raw numbers were correct but they weighted the poll

Dems +7 or 8
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