most conservative urban congressional district?

[WalterMitty]

excluding any miami cuban districts,

[Keystone Phil]

I wish it was near Philly, that's for sure.

My guess would be somewhere near Dallas.

[Erc]

NY-13?  (If you can consider Staten Island urban).

[Keystone Phil]

NY-13?  (If you can consider Staten Island urban).

I can't believe I forgot that one but I assume the Dallas area is more conservative.

[Meeker]

Isn't NY-3 pretty urban as well?

[Brittain33]

Does AZ-3 count as urban? It's largely within Phoenix city limits, but it may not feel particularly densely populated.

[nclib]

Possibly IL-3.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I suppose that depends how "urban" is being defined. (and conservative, of course. But that's a can of worms that I won't open here...)

[Sam Spade]

I suppose that depends how "urban" is being defined. (and conservative, of course. But that's a can of worms that I won't open here...)

^^^^^^^^^

[Smash255]

Isn't NY-3 pretty urban as well?

NY-3 is suburban and considering Gore won by about 8 here in 2000 (under the current lines) you can't say its conservative.  If your taken suburban districts into consideration you have MANY other districts,  than NY-3uth that are MUCH more conservative.  NY-13 is also more conservative than NY-3.  Does depend on how you define conservative, but have to agree with some of the others, Dallas.

[Mr.Phips]

Probably TX-07 or TX-03. 

[Torie]

Ya, is urban defined as dominated by an MSA, or dominated by a "big city," sans suburbs? If an MSA, a Dallas or Atlanta based CD would be in the hunt, depending on what "conservative" means.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Ya, is urban defined as dominated by an MSA, or dominated by a "big city," sans suburbs? If an MSA, a Dallas or Atlanta based CD would be in the hunt, depending on what "conservative" means.

There are no Republican districts containing any part of Atlanta proper.

[minionofmidas]

Ya, is urban defined as dominated by an MSA, or dominated by a "big city," sans suburbs? If an MSA, a Dallas or Atlanta based CD would be in the hunt, depending on what "conservative" means.

There are no Republican districts containing any part of Atlanta proper.

Note highlight.

Of course, that sort of defeats the purpose... if the purpose was "urban" rather than "suburban".

[minionofmidas]

FWIW, I've compiled a list of Republican-held seats that are over 90% 88% (to bring to round no of 40 seats) within an "Urbanized Area", which is a somewhat more restricted census concept than an MSA, but still includes the suburbs as urban.

100.0% - 40th CA, 10th FL, 13th NY
99.9% - 48th CA, 21st FL, 32nd TX
99.7% - 7th TX
99.6% - 3rd NY
99.5% - 10th IL
99.4% - 46th CA
99.3% - 9th MI, 24th TX
99.0% - 3rd TX
98.8% - 42nd CA, 13th IL
98.2% - 26th CA
97.9% - 2nd NE
97.7% - 44th CA, 50th CA
97.0% - 11th MI
96.5% - 3rd AZ
96.0% - 11th VA
95.7% - 6th AZ
95.6% - 4th CT
95.2% - 3rd MN
93.8% - 9th FL
93.4% - 6th GA
93.1% - 3rd NV
92.4% - 4th NJ
91.9% - 11th NJ
91.8% - 8th FL
91.0% - 2nd VA
90.6% - 25th FL
90.5% - 24th FL, 3rd NJ
90.1% - 52nd CA
89.8% - 7th NJ
89.3% - 49th CA
89.0% - 2nd MO
88.0% - 1st NM

[Smash255]

FWIW, I've compiled a list of Republican-held seats that are over 90% 88% (to bring to round no of 40 seats) within an "Urbanized Area", which is a somewhat more restricted census concept than an MSA, but still includes the suburbs as urban.


99.6% - 3rd NY

I wonder what the 0.4% of NY-3 that is mot considered urban or suburban....

[minionofmidas]

FWIW, I've compiled a list of Republican-held seats that are over 90% 88% (to bring to round no of 40 seats) within an "Urbanized Area", which is a somewhat more restricted census concept than an MSA, but still includes the suburbs as urban.


99.6% - 3rd NY

I wonder what the 0.4% of NY-3 that is mot considered urban or suburban....

I suppose I could find a map... NY-2 was about identical, NY-4 (through to 17) was 100.0%, NY-1 was about 91%.

Also, although it doesn't matter here, there's also an "urban cluster", which is an urbanized area of less than 50,000 people. These are excluded from the figures given here, but are also included under the Bureau's definition of "urban" (ie, urban or suburban rather than rural).

[minionofmidas]

FWIW, I've compiled a list of Republican-held seats that are over 90% 88% (to bring to round no of 40 seats) within an "Urbanized Area", which is a somewhat more restricted census concept than an MSA, but still includes the suburbs as urban.


99.6% - 3rd NY

I wonder what the 0.4% of NY-3 that is mot considered urban or suburban....

I suppose I could find a map... NY-2 was about identical

Seems to be some territory right northeast and west of Oyster Bay, in Lloyd Harbor, Cove Neck, Mill Neck, Matinecock.
And much of the island chain south of Long Island, but I'm not sure whether the non-urban area islands here are inhabited at all.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I wonder if that territory is similar to Fort Snelling. Hennepin County has only two unincorporated areas in it, Hassan Township, an exurban township in the far northwest corner which is probably considered "rural" by most but is really just one of those "cornfields + subdivisions" type places, and Fort Snelling right south of Minneapolis. Ft. Snelling isn't even a township, it's simply considered "unorganized territory". Fort Snelling basically consists of the airport and probably continues to exist just so the airport isn't in any incorporated municipality which I suspect it wants, and has a population of 442, (I'm not sure where exactly these people live to be honest even though I drive through it every day I go to work, but I suspect there's probably some newly built river-side homes in the area.) This officially makes the Ft. Snelling area "rural" and thus the people living in residents of a "rural" area even though it's obviously not actually rural, not even superficially rural like Hassan.

Hmmm, that could be looked up actually, Lewis is there any part of MN-05 that isn't considered suburban or urban?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Actually now seeing MN-03 on Lewis' list I realize they must be including some areas other than Hassan as "rural" since it obviously doesn't make up almost 5% of the district's population.

[Smash255]

FWIW, I've compiled a list of Republican-held seats that are over 90% 88% (to bring to round no of 40 seats) within an "Urbanized Area", which is a somewhat more restricted census concept than an MSA, but still includes the suburbs as urban.


99.6% - 3rd NY

I wonder what the 0.4% of NY-3 that is mot considered urban or suburban....

I suppose I could find a map... NY-2 was about identical

Seems to be some territory right northeast and west of Oyster Bay, in Lloyd Harbor, Cove Neck, Mill Neck, Matinecock.
And much of the island chain south of Long Island, but I'm not sure whether the non-urban area islands here are inhabited at all.

Maybe they are going by pop density to figure that out in some cases.  The area in northeast Nassau your speaking of isn't rural, its just VERY VERY wealthy.  Mansion land.

As far as the island chain south of LI, its pretty much inhabited or beaches, Jones Beach being one of those.

[Nym90]

I suppose that depends how "urban" is being defined. (and conservative, of course. But that's a can of worms that I won't open here...)

^^^^^^^^^

Well of course, but given how highly I value the opinion of both of you....I was hoping you'd both chime in on your thoughts, according to your own peculiar definitions of those terms.

I'd say NY-13 since it's the most densely populated Congressional District to have a Republican representative and the most densely populated also to vote for Bush (IIRC).

[minionofmidas]

FWIW, I've compiled a list of Republican-held seats that are over 90% 88% (to bring to round no of 40 seats) within an "Urbanized Area", which is a somewhat more restricted census concept than an MSA, but still includes the suburbs as urban.


99.6% - 3rd NY

I wonder what the 0.4% of NY-3 that is mot considered urban or suburban....

I suppose I could find a map... NY-2 was about identical

Seems to be some territory right northeast and west of Oyster Bay, in Lloyd Harbor, Cove Neck, Mill Neck, Matinecock.
And much of the island chain south of Long Island, but I'm not sure whether the non-urban area islands here are inhabited at all.

Maybe they are going by pop density to figure that out in some cases.  The area in northeast Nassau your speaking of isn't rural, its just VERY VERY wealthy.  Mansion land.

The way it sounded at the Census Bureau glossary, there's a minimum pop. density for the entire UA (which in this case is New York - Newark ), but maybe I misread and it's a requirement for that pop. density everywhere in the area... although I suppose wholly enclosed areas of lower density count anyways. (Central Park is certainly part of the UA. )

There's some errors in my list. Will be fixed in a couple of minutes. And I'll look up Red's query while I'm at it.

[minionofmidas]

Hmmm, that could be looked up actually, Lewis is there any part of MN-05 that isn't considered suburban or urban?

No. There is a tiny part of MN-4 though, with 731 people in it.

Minnesota districts ordered by percentage in urbanized areas:
5 100.0
4 99.9
3 95.2
2 61.9
6 46.2 (a plurality in a 3way UA/UC/rural comparison)
1 15.8 (highest UC share of any district at 40.7%. Plurality rural)
8 14.9
7 7.0 (both majority rural)

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Hmmm, that could be looked up actually, Lewis is there any part of MN-05 that isn't considered suburban or urban?

No. There is a tiny part of MN-4 though, with 731 people in it.

Hmmm. Is it in Washington or Dakota county? I was thinking it might be White Bear Township but that's far too populated and dense.

1 15.8 (highest UC share of any district at 40.7%. Plurality rural)

UC?