CO: Public Policy Polling: Obama with a slight lead over McCain

[Tender Branson]

New Poll: Colorado President by Public Policy Polling on 2008-07-10

Summary: D: 47%, R: 43%, U: 10%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

The Hispanic vote is the key to Obama’s success in the state. The state has a small black population, and McCain leads 46-45 among white voters. Obama’s lead comes from a 58-34 advantage with the state’s growing Hispanic population.

There’s good news for Democrats in the US Senate race as well. Mark Udall leads Bob
Schaffer 47-38 in the race to replace Wayne Allard.

Obama is leading among independent voters in the state by a margin of 50-30. He also
leads with every age group except those over 65.

[Aizen]

Damn, you beat me by like 30 seconds. I'll delete my topic

[Flying Dog]

Very good.

[Tender Branson]

Damn, you beat me by like 30 seconds. I'll delete my topic

Dave also needs to delete the poll with the wrong date out of the database.

As for the poll: 4% isn´t exactly the "healthy lead" Tom Jensen reported in his E-Mail preview i got yesterday, but nonetheless - Obama's leading Colorado - even when its a national 50/50 race and that´s fine with me.

[Josh/Devilman88]

Damn, you beat me by like 30 seconds. I'll delete my topic

Dave also needs to delete the poll with the wrong date out of the database.

As for the poll: 4% isn´t exactly the "healthy lead" Tom Jensen reported in his E-Mail preview i got yesterday, but nonetheless - Obama's leading Colorado - even when its a national 50/50 race and that´s fine with me.

Maybe it was at that time.

[Aizen]

Damn, you beat me by like 30 seconds. I'll delete my topic

Dave also needs to delete the poll with the wrong date out of the database.

As for the poll: 4% isn´t exactly the "healthy lead" Tom Jensen reported in his E-Mail preview i got yesterday, but nonetheless - Obama's leading Colorado - even when its a national 50/50 race and that´s fine with me.

Yeah, obviously you were eagerly awaiting this CO poll too... I thought I was really quick. It probably was a healthy lead until he polled the Springs.

[Tender Branson]

Damn, you beat me by like 30 seconds. I'll delete my topic

Dave also needs to delete the poll with the wrong date out of the database.

As for the poll: 4% isn´t exactly the "healthy lead" Tom Jensen reported in his E-Mail preview i got yesterday, but nonetheless - Obama's leading Colorado - even when its a national 50/50 race and that´s fine with me.

Yeah, obviously you were eagerly awaiting this CO poll too... I thought I was really quick. It probably was a healthy lead until he polled the Springs.

The interesting fact is: The poll was conducted July 9/10. I wrote the email yesterday, July 13 and he said they are not yet finished with polling ? What ?

[WalterMitty]

a four point lead in a poll with a three point moe.

solid obama,

[Tender Branson]

a four point lead in a poll with a three point moe.

solid obama,

I think the fact that Obama LED in every CO poll so far, compared with Kerry, who TRAILED in every 2004 poll, is more important than your finding ...

[Sam Spade]

Before I comment about the blatant cheerleading in both this thread, not to mention the poll report, I'm having a tough time remembering the last time party ID (which PPP is usually good about keeping normal in NC) was 40D, 36R, 24I.

Not that this really makes a difference - I suspect Obama is slightly ahead in CO, anyways.

[Verily]

Before I comment about the blatant cheerleading in both this thread, not to mention the poll report, I'm having a tough time remembering the last time party ID (which PPP is usually good about keeping normal in NC) was 40D, 36R, 24I.

Not that this really makes a difference - I suspect Obama is slightly ahead in CO, anyways.

Obviously the Democrats have gained about 8 points nationally since 2004, and it's probably come more heavily in places like Colorado than, say, in the South. Republicans had a nine-point advantage in Colorado in 2004, but IIRC the actual registration numbers had Democrats ahead for the first time just this year there. It's an underestimate of "Other", but that probably comes at the expense of Republicans as much as Democrats given the breakdown (and "Other" favors Obama 50-30 anyway).

[Alcon]

Wasn't party ID really close in Colorado in 2004? Obviously the Democrats have gained since then. It's an underestimate of "Other", but that probably comes at the expense of Republicans as much as Democrats given the breakdown (and "Other" favors Obama 50-30 anyway).

Not especially.  38R, 33I, 29D

[Verily]

Wasn't party ID really close in Colorado in 2004? Obviously the Democrats have gained since then. It's an underestimate of "Other", but that probably comes at the expense of Republicans as much as Democrats given the breakdown (and "Other" favors Obama 50-30 anyway).

Not especially.  38R, 33I, 29D

Yeah, I looked it up and edited my post.

[Aizen]

Recently, Unaffiliated surpassed Republicans as largest voting block in Colorado.


Here are the most recent numbers I could find

R: 34.14%
D: 31.2%
I/U: 34.19%


So yes, Republicans have lost a ton of ground in Colorado.

[Person Man]

...and let's say turnout will be-

            O         M
R 34    10        89
D 32    88        11
I  34    55        44

Obama: 50.7%
McCain: 48.3%
Other:       1%

Let's say the voting patterns are slightly different this time-


              M          O
R 34     88         10

D 32    9            90

I  34    42          56


Obama: 51.24%
McCain: 47.06%
Other:     1.70%

Yeah. This seeams like the most likely result.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Always good to see Obama ahead in Colorado.

[Torie]

As part of my continuing saga to suggest that McCain is running just fine with Hispanics, I note here that the Hispanic break is 58-34 Obama in this Colorado poll, and in 2004 even with the Bush inflation among Hispanics in the exit poll, it was 68-30 Kerry in Colorado.

[Aizen]

Before I comment about the blatant cheerleading in both this thread, not to mention the poll report, I'm having a tough time remembering the last time party ID (which PPP is usually good about keeping normal in NC) was 40D, 36R, 24I.

Not that this really makes a difference - I suspect Obama is slightly ahead in CO, anyways.

If you adjust the data from the report to fit in with the party ID percents I mentioned before (34 R, 34 I, 31 D) then this is what you get


Obama: 45%
McCain: 43%


...So your suspicion would be correct.

[Lunar]

a four point lead in a poll with a three point moe.

solid obama,

I think the fact that Obama LED in every CO poll so far, compared with Kerry, who TRAILED in every 2004 poll, is more important than your finding ...

Indeed, although this poll by itself would not represent a solid lead, when taken in with perhaps a dozen other polls showing roughly the same margin or higher, it does. And if a poll showed Obama leading Arizona by 15, that wouldn't represent Obama solidly leading the state either because what the other polls have shown, yo.

[Alcon]

As part of my continuing saga to suggest that McCain is running just fine with Hispanics, I note here that the Hispanic break is 58-34 Obama in this Colorado poll, and in 2004 even with the Bush inflation among Hispanics in the exit poll, it was 68-30 Kerry in Colorado.

As part of my continuing, competing saga to complain about sample sizes...

The Latino MoE on the 2004 exit poll was +/-6.9%.

They don't outright give us the breakdown for this poll, but assuming Latinos are about 50% more of the electorate than in 2004 (generous?), you have a MoE of +/-12.7%.

Together, we're looking at a confidence rate well below 95%.

I still think that national polls are, alas, the best way to gauge Latino patterns (because of sample-size restrictions) even if they ignore possible regional subtleties.

[Torie]

Ya, blah, blah, blah, you're no fun, but the national polls are not that different. In any event, if state after state shows the same thing, that has some statistical significance - just what I am not sure, but something.

[Person Man]

Maybe McCain is doing well amongst Hispanics, but it appears that Obama has so far failed to develop a "Hispanic Problem"....maybe he has a "Catholic Problem", but Obama appears to make up his loses by somehow doing well with "Libertarians". In fact, Obama has a lead with Libertarians, according to RR.

[Eraserhead]

It's kind of tough to see how Obama loses CO this year... strange as it is to say that...

[Democratic Hawk]

[Ronnie]

If McCain doesn't make gains with Hispanics, CO and NM are lost for him.