How long until the US reaches latin american levels of inequality?

[Albus Dumbledore]

The way things are looking here in the states aren't really looking good. We've got declining educational levels, unwise economic policies, unaffordable healthcare, corrupt governments,  lack of investment in infrastructure and a culture that right now is going in a... bad direction(current dominance of fundies, rising teen pregnancy rates, abortion/contraception being less acceptable, more xenophobic). How long until we look like Brazil or Mexico with the rich and what's left of the middle class living in gated compounds and large numbers of poor/underclass people? My personal guess is 25 years if we keep the same economic consensus that's held since Reagan.

[Sbane]

IF we continue republican policies it should come into fruition within 25 years. I will be optimistic and say 50.

[Person Man]

I am guessing by 2025. We certainly are becoming the 3rd Millenium version of the Ottoman or Roman Empire. ...and maybe people will feel so phucked up that there will be a revolution. Maybe if Obama wins and he does well, we can temporarily avert our problems until we have enough time and willingness to avert it.

[Albus Dumbledore]

Not really. On a timeframe following Rome/China's moves to universal states we'd start the transition about 2060 and be at the empire by 2080.

[Person Man]

Not really. On a timeframe following Rome/China's moves to universal states we'd start the transition about 2060 and be at the empire by 2080.

Yes, but couldn't the scale of our country expedite the process. Then again, there could be a sub-universal state model that we belong in that fits Nazi Germany or the Ottoman Empire.

[Albus Dumbledore]

The Ottomans *were* the universal state for Magian civilization and lasted about 500 years then fell apart into their components. Nazi germany wasn't a universal state. it was one of the contenting states of the West's era of warring states.

[Person Man]

Well, the Ottomans had to deal with Persians and were pretty easily dealt with by the Austrians, Spanish, British and Russians. What could be a good model for the rise, consolidation, decline and destruction of the United States?

[Albus Dumbledore]

Spengler's model if you believe in that. The military-industrial-media complex could be cited as a prototype for Caeserianism. Decreasing political and personal restraints could also be compared to hellenistic times.

[Person Man]

So, are there other models? Could this model by expedited to say a transition in the next few years that could be complete by 2025 or 2035? What would come after the Imperialization of the United States? What would it even look like? Would the United States Government just become a corporation and run as such? Maybe the United States of 2040 will be like the Shin-Ra Corporation of Final Fantasy VII.

[Albus Dumbledore]

http://www.johnreilly.info/oncwg.htm
^ Very informative online essay about a future western universal state and what it'd look like. That answers your questions in quite alot of detail.

[Person Man]

Some Thoughts-

Its policies seem to be more libertarian than anything else

Gee, it does seem like a giant corporation, with no democracy and no dictators. Looks like my training as a bureaucrat will always provide me with lucrative and steady employment.

The world Emperor sounds like a Supreme Court.

I don't like the immobility idea, but at least there will be meritocracy and care for its citizens.

Also, about the technology thing- where will technology peak? If its not that much more than today, this universal state thing doesn't seem very fun. However, if there is considerable life extension, AI and common space travel. That might be pretty fun.

[Albus Dumbledore]

Technology is expected to peak in those kinds of scenarios by 2200 or so. However, with the way funding is drying up for everything but medicine/internal security don't expect revolutions. You'll get your life expectency and awesome VR graphics but no AI and probably space travel.

[??????????]

and maybe people will feel so phucked up that there will be a revolution.

Americans are to lazy and whine to much for that to happen.

[Person Man]

Technology is expected to peak in those kinds of scenarios by 2200 or so. However, with the way funding is drying up for everything but medicine/internal security don't expect revolutions. You'll get your life expectency and awesome VR graphics but no AI and probably space travel.

What about private endaveors? What do you mean by life expancy?

[Albus Dumbledore]

1 World economy is too small for serious space endeavors by private people.

2 Expectency** A typo.

[Person Man]

I'm just talking about larger scale orbit (which is already begining) and moon and maybe a Mars trip per generation or so.

Where will live expectancy be?

...say! Could the world be like Brave New World between 2050 and 2600ish?

[Albus Dumbledore]

My guess is well over 150 in the more developed zones by 2100. I can expand more on future scenarios ideas on PM/IM if you wish.

[Albus Dumbledore]

Brave new world? The likely model for the long-term future of earth/sol system is probably a mix of futurama/star trek minus FTL. Genetically engineered modified humans, uplifted animals, robots, posthumans all coexisting in a sol system under a relatively weak central government probably called something like the 'United Nations', 'The United Federation of Planets', 'The eucemical Empire' or some other name.

[CultureKing]

It really is depressing to see how much income disparity has increased over the years. I am not completely sure but I think that we now have the highest level of income disparity since the Great Depression. Hopefully a president who is willing to put in some major reforms will come to office (these reforms may not be popular but they are needed, basically we need another president who is like LBJ domestically). Basically its time to tax the rich and have universal health care, though those are just tow steps.

[??????????]

....basically we need another president who is like LBJ domestically

We do and his name is George W. Bush.

[2952-0-0]

5 years.

Unless a junta of secretive technocrats somehow enter the White House.

Mark my words.

[Albus Dumbledore]

Why so soon?

[2952-0-0]

Runaway oil prices. Sure, we may be sitting on a commodity bubble.

But look for skyrocketing inflation and supply shortages within the next few years.

We'll go through a period like Russia in the 1990s: mass unemployment, unreliable monetary system, so many defaults that banks don't care about them, and oligarchs who skim public assets for cheap.

Won't be pretty.

[dead0man]

I love threads like this.  Really shines a light on the whacko's among us.

[ChrisFromNJ]

....basically we need another president who is like LBJ domestically

We do and his name is George W. Bush.

Let's not ever compare LBJ to George W Bush domestically again, ok?