MS-Sen B: Here comes the DSCC...

[MarkWarner08]

"As Sen. Roger Wicker (R) continues to air a series of campaign ads in central and Gulf Coast Mississippi this month, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee is going up on television in the Magnolia state beginning today.

 The DSCC television purchases in Mississippi means the party will be on the air in the Magnolia State ahead of the Democratic Senate nominee, former Gov. Ronnie Musgrove, who has yet to buy television ads in the special Senate election."

http://www.rollcall.com/issues/54_6/atr/26658-1.html

This the DSCC's second ad buy of the cycle.  Earlier this year, the DSCC paid for two ads attacking Sen. Gordon Smith (R-OR) and another defending Jeff Merkley. In addition to these ads, the DSCC spent over $250k covering all of Merkley's campaign expenses from payroll to stamps. In both of these races, a Republican incumbent enjoys a slim lead in the polls but a massive CoH advantage. The DSCC is trying to even the playing field for its challengers.

[Conan]

"As Sen. Roger Wicker (R) continues to air a series of campaign ads in central and Gulf Coast Mississippi this month, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee is going up on television in the Magnolia state beginning today.

 The DSCC television purchases in Mississippi means the party will be on the air in the Magnolia State ahead of the Democratic Senate nominee, former Gov. Ronnie Musgrove, who has yet to buy television ads in the special Senate election."

http://www.rollcall.com/issues/54_6/atr/26658-1.html

This the DSCC's second ad buy of the cycle.  Earlier this year, the DSCC paid for two ads attacking Sen. Gordon Smith (R-OR) and another defending Jeff Merkley. In addition to these ads, the DSCC spent over $250k covering all of Merkley's campaign expenses from payroll to stamps. In both of these races, a Republican incumbent enjoys a slim lead in the polls but a massive CoH advantage. The DSCC is trying to even the playing field for its challengers.

Last time I checked, Wicker didn't hold a slim lead.

[MarkWarner08]

"As Sen. Roger Wicker (R) continues to air a series of campaign ads in central and Gulf Coast Mississippi this month, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee is going up on television in the Magnolia state beginning today.

 The DSCC television purchases in Mississippi means the party will be on the air in the Magnolia State ahead of the Democratic Senate nominee, former Gov. Ronnie Musgrove, who has yet to buy television ads in the special Senate election."

http://www.rollcall.com/issues/54_6/atr/26658-1.html

This the DSCC's second ad buy of the cycle.  Earlier this year, the DSCC paid for two ads attacking Sen. Gordon Smith (R-OR) and another defending Jeff Merkley. In addition to these ads, the DSCC spent over $250k covering all of Merkley's campaign expenses from payroll to stamps. In both of these races, a Republican incumbent enjoys a slim lead in the polls but a massive CoH advantage. The DSCC is trying to even the playing field for its challengers.

Last time I checked, Wicker didn't hold a slim lead.

Before Wicker started his ad blitz, he was statistically tied with Musgrove.  Though he didn't enjoy a Dole-type bounce, Wicker's campaign was bolstered by his advertising.

I'd guess Wicker will be up 3-4 points when the next poll comes out. If he wasn't helped by his recent ad buy, why would the DSCC have stepped in so early?

[Sam Spade]

"As Sen. Roger Wicker (R) continues to air a series of campaign ads in central and Gulf Coast Mississippi this month, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee is going up on television in the Magnolia state beginning today.

 The DSCC television purchases in Mississippi means the party will be on the air in the Magnolia State ahead of the Democratic Senate nominee, former Gov. Ronnie Musgrove, who has yet to buy television ads in the special Senate election."

http://www.rollcall.com/issues/54_6/atr/26658-1.html

This the DSCC's second ad buy of the cycle.  Earlier this year, the DSCC paid for two ads attacking Sen. Gordon Smith (R-OR) and another defending Jeff Merkley. In addition to these ads, the DSCC spent over $250k covering all of Merkley's campaign expenses from payroll to stamps. In both of these races, a Republican incumbent enjoys a slim lead in the polls but a massive CoH advantage. The DSCC is trying to even the playing field for its challengers.

Last time I checked, Wicker didn't hold a slim lead.

Before Wicker started his ad blitz, he was statistically tied with Musgrove.  Though he didn't enjoy a Dole-type bounce, Wicker's campaign was bolstered by his advertising.

I'd guess Wicker will be up 3-4 points when the next poll comes out. If he wasn't helped by his recent ad buy, why would the DSCC have stepped in so early?

3-4 points in my world (as in most worlds with small polling size samples) is statistically tied.  Nevertheless, that's where the race is right now (yes, you heard me correctly - don't listen to polls or Harry that much).  You just don't want there to be a small bump to discourage fundraisers.

The real question is whether the DSCC can keep Wicker from defining himself as a Republican/conservative/whatever, and Musgrove as a Democrat.  I suspect the latter is easier than the former, but it makes a world of difference in a state like MS where the Republican resides in the most strongly white Democratic part of the state (respectively).

[MarkWarner08]

"As Sen. Roger Wicker (R) continues to air a series of campaign ads in central and Gulf Coast Mississippi this month, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee is going up on television in the Magnolia state beginning today.

 The DSCC television purchases in Mississippi means the party will be on the air in the Magnolia State ahead of the Democratic Senate nominee, former Gov. Ronnie Musgrove, who has yet to buy television ads in the special Senate election."

http://www.rollcall.com/issues/54_6/atr/26658-1.html

This the DSCC's second ad buy of the cycle.  Earlier this year, the DSCC paid for two ads attacking Sen. Gordon Smith (R-OR) and another defending Jeff Merkley. In addition to these ads, the DSCC spent over $250k covering all of Merkley's campaign expenses from payroll to stamps. In both of these races, a Republican incumbent enjoys a slim lead in the polls but a massive CoH advantage. The DSCC is trying to even the playing field for its challengers.

Last time I checked, Wicker didn't hold a slim lead.

Before Wicker started his ad blitz, he was statistically tied with Musgrove.  Though he didn't enjoy a Dole-type bounce, Wicker's campaign was bolstered by his advertising.

I'd guess Wicker will be up 3-4 points when the next poll comes out. If he wasn't helped by his recent ad buy, why would the DSCC have stepped in so early?

3-4 points in my world (as in most worlds with small polling size samples) is statistically tied.  Nevertheless, that's where the race is right now (yes, you heard me correctly - don't listen to polls or Harry that much).  You just don't want there to be a small bump to discourage fundraisers.

The real question is whether the DSCC can keep Wicker from defining himself as a Republican/conservative/whatever, and Musgrove as a Democrat.  I suspect the latter is easier than the former, but it makes a world of difference in a state like MS where the Republican resides in the most strongly white Democratic part of the state (respectively).

Yes, 3-4 points is usually within the MoE so that does count as "statistically tied," but I think we both agree that Wicker has a narrow advantage in this race. If it weren't for the lack of name ID on the ballot, I'd say Wicker would win by 6-8 points.Right now this election is literally be a choice between two individuals, one well-known, the other well-known in just one CD. Once Wicker reaches name ID parity with Musgrove, the onus will be on the DSCC to prevent Wicker from framing this a choice election between the liberal national Democratic Party and the national Republican Party. If their efforts fail, Wicker will probably win.

[7,052,770]

Good for the DSCC.  We are going to have to fight hard to win.