Which one would most likely happen?

[Josh/Devilman88]

I think Obama will win at least one county in every state.

[Хahar 🤔]

Option 1

[J. J.]

I'd say McCain winning is the most likely.

[King]

Massachusetts and Rhode Island prevent McCain from achieving this feat.

Large urban areas that vote Democrat in Republican states will allow Obama to achieve this feat.

Still, it wouldn't surprise me if Oklahoma or Utah were a sweep again.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Massachusetts and Rhode Island prevent McCain from achieving this feat.

Large urban areas that vote Democrat in Republican states will allow Obama to achieve this feat.

Still, it wouldn't surprise me if Oklahoma or Utah were a sweep again.

Massachusetts isn't the deal breaker: There are plausible scenarios where McCain wins Plymouth.  Rhode Island is the deal breaker.

[Lunar]

Basically, it's a competition to see if McCain can pick up 14% in Rhode Island counties or if Obama can pick up ~12% in Salt Lake County, win Alaska, and pick up ~4% in one of the more Democratic Oklahoman counties.

[Aizen]

I'd say McCain winning is the most likely.

Wrong


Hawaii is a deal breaker too

[Lunar]

I'd say McCain winning is the most likely.

Wrong


Hawaii is a deal breaker too

Kerry won Honolulu County by less than 3%.  I mean, there's a bunch of reasons why Obama will do better, but it's not quite a deal breaker.

[Ronnie]

Unless there is a HUGE Bradley effect in New England, RI and MA will prevent McCain from getting at least a county in every state.

Even in UT, Obama will probably flip Summit county, and it's hard for me to believe he won't flip at least a county in OK.

[Alcon]

States where Kerry didn't win any counties:  Oklahoma, Utah.


States where Kerry got close to losing all counties:  Nevada, Wyoming, Nebraska, "Alaska".

Obama is not losing Teton County, Wyo., and Clark County, Nev., also seems very unlikely.  Thurston County, Neb., depends on Indian turnout, but I still think he'll pick at least one county off in the state (probably including Thurston).  Obama will obviously be fine in Alaska, carrying Juneau and flipping several other districts with relative ease.

As for Oklahoma, 2004 was a bit of a fluke.  A repeatable fluke, but I see Obama probably netting at least a county there.  Utah is the sticking point -- Grand and Summit are both within striking distance, and Obama is popular among the base there.  They're very polarized, though.

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States where Bush didn't win any counties: Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Hawaii.

States where Bush got close to losing all counties: Vermont, Connecticut.

Plymouth County, Mass., might flip, but I doubt it.  Essex County, Vt., is hard to crack, but Obama could easily make a go at it.  I don't really know that much about Litchfield, Conn., but in theory it seems like a potential loss.

On the other hand, McCain would have to sluice off Newport County, R.I., which would be pretty tough going.  And Honolulu County, Hi., is almost certainly utterly hopeless for John McCain.

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So, yeah, Obama is much more likely to get a county in every state.  Probably even near 50%, I'd say.

[Alcon]

Kerry won Honolulu County by less than 3%.  I mean, there's a bunch of reasons why Obama will do better, but it's not quite a deal breaker.

Yeah, but look at the Big Populous () Island's natural state circa 2000.  Maybe not a deal-breaker, but if McCain wins Honolulu County, he's likely won the election by a small truckload.

Although your point that it's not a deal-breaker is true.  It's just, within the realm of electoral probability, effectively "not gonna happen."  IMHO.

[Torie]

Kerry won Honolulu County by less than 3%.  I mean, there's a bunch of reasons why Obama will do better, but it's not quite a deal breaker.

Yeah, but look at the Big Populous () Island's natural state circa 2000.  Maybe not a deal-breaker, but if McCain wins Honolulu County, he's likely won the election by a small truckload.

Although your point that it's not a deal-breaker is true.  It's just, within the realm of electoral probability, effectively "not gonna happen."  IMHO.

Folks must look at you weird when you know instantly what county Evansville, Indiana is in, and for that matter every other friggin town in the nation of any consequence.

I know my partners come to me to ask what county a town is in, when they want to pull recorded documents from there, or record documents. I rarely let them down.

[Aizen]

I'd say McCain winning is the most likely.

Wrong


Hawaii is a deal breaker too

Kerry won Honolulu County by less than 3%.  I mean, there's a bunch of reasons why Obama will do better, but it's not quite a deal breaker.

The question is which is more likely to happen. Obama has a far better shot at getting summit county, Utah and a Gore county in Oklahoma than Honolulu county. Hawaii sure as hell isn't going to trend Republican this election. So in that sense, it is a deal breaker.

[CARLHAYDEN]

Neither.

Some states don't have counties!

Please list the counties in Alaska.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Neither probably. I am not sure if Obama can flip a county in Oklahoma or Utah, but I know McCain will not win a county in Rhode Island.

[The Mikado]

Neither.

Some states don't have counties!

Please list the counties in Alaska.

You could say the same about Louisiana...but it'd be pedantic and annoying.

[Joe Biden 2020]

Neither.

Some states don't have counties!

Please list the counties in Alaska.

Please list the counties in Louisiana!!

Anyway, Obama winning at least one county in every state is more likely than McCain doing the same..  There is no way Obama doesn't pick off at least 5-10 counties in Oklahoma, namely take the Gore counties back.  He'll probably take a couple counties in Utah.  Its MA, RI, CT, VT, and HI that I see are the deal breakers for McCain.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

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No way he doesn't? Unlike Obama, Gore actually somewhat appealed to the Oklahoman, unlike Obama who gets destroyed there and possibly could do worse than Kerry. That assessment is very bold.

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Probably pick off Utah counties? Obama now appeals strongly to Mormons? Maybe one or so, but again, very bold.

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MA is going to be a state where Obama underperforms. It's possible McCain wins Plymouth county there. RI is a lost cause for sure. McCain could still win Litchfield in CT, and Essex County VT might stay GOP. HI is likely lost as well for McCain.

[Alcon]

No way he doesn't? Unlike Obama, Gore actually somewhat appealed to the Oklahoman, unlike Obama who gets destroyed there and possibly could do worse than Kerry. That assessment is very bold.

Kerry's performance there was really really terrible.  The most he had going for him that Obama doesn't is, sorry, "not black."  Obama could really do that badly, but currently I'm seeing something more like McCain +25 or a little lower, which will be enough to return a coupla-three counties.

Probably pick off Utah counties? Obama now appeals strongly to Mormons? Maybe one or so, but again, very bold.

Obama's target counties there are Grand and Summit -- both places where an improvement among Mormons would help, but that's definitely not the demographic Obama is primarily going after in either.  Counties that lack any non-Mormon population ain't gonna be close.

[Torie]

Neither.

Some states don't have counties!

Please list the counties in Alaska.

It has districts or something. Actually, it is Boroughs. And there you have it!

[CARLHAYDEN]

Neither.

Some states don't have counties!

Please list the counties in Alaska.

It has districts or something. Actually, it is Boroughs. And there you have it!

Ah, but not all the state is in Boroughs.  Much is in "census areas."

[Stranger in a strange land]

Neither.

Some states don't have counties!

Please list the counties in Alaska.

It has districts or something. Actually, it is Boroughs. And there you have it!

Ah, but not all the state is in Boroughs.  Much is in "census areas."

for the purposes of this exercise, I'll be counting census areas and Louisiana's parishes as counties.

and I think both will happen: Obama will win every county in Hawaii, almost certainly in Mass and RI, and probably in CT. McCain will win every county in Utah.