CA-Field Poll: Obama buries McCain
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Author Topic: CA-Field Poll: Obama buries McCain  (Read 1965 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: July 16, 2008, 04:13:13 AM »



http://www.sacbee.com/111/story/1085825.html
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ucscgaldamez
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« Reply #1 on: July 16, 2008, 10:27:40 AM »

sweet
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agcatter
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« Reply #2 on: July 16, 2008, 10:37:39 AM »

Sweet unless Obama's 3 or 4 point national lead happens to be concentrated in safe Democratic states like California, Washington, Minn, New York, Connecticut etc.

It is, after all, all about the 270.  If the California numbers reflected a universal movement toward Obama across each of the 50 states we'd be looking at a low double digit national Obama margin.  We're not and that could be a problem for Obama in the electoral college.  Just saying....
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ucscgaldamez
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« Reply #3 on: July 16, 2008, 10:41:48 AM »

I really think this election will come down to New Mexico, Iowa and Nevada. I don't think that Obama will take Colorado. If Obama takes those three, and everything else remains the same as 2004, then we have an electoral tie.
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Meeker
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« Reply #4 on: July 16, 2008, 11:00:58 AM »

But, but... McCain's "independent nature" creates "potential opportunities" in California! I saw it on his website!
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Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #5 on: July 16, 2008, 11:41:02 AM »

I really think this election will come down to New Mexico, Iowa and Nevada. I don't think that Obama will take Colorado. If Obama takes those three, and everything else remains the same as 2004, then we have an electoral tie.

Obama is more likely to win VA, OH, and CO than Nevada... so a tie is... unlikely
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ucscgaldamez
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« Reply #6 on: July 16, 2008, 11:53:58 AM »

well, I disagree.
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Aizen
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« Reply #7 on: July 16, 2008, 12:24:42 PM »

This may be the one and only state where McCain's offshore drilling proposal has killed him. Obama could very well break 60% at this rate
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Flying Dog
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« Reply #8 on: July 16, 2008, 12:26:24 PM »

That picture is too close for comfort.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #9 on: July 16, 2008, 01:13:04 PM »

Sweet unless Obama's 3 or 4 point national lead happens to be concentrated in safe Democratic states like California, Washington, Minn, New York, Connecticut etc.

It is, after all, all about the 270.  If the California numbers reflected a universal movement toward Obama across each of the 50 states we'd be looking at a low double digit national Obama margin.  We're not and that could be a problem for Obama in the electoral college.  Just saying....
Okay, but the chances of that are relatively slim and it's mostly just a Republican pipe dream.
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WalterMitty
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« Reply #10 on: July 16, 2008, 02:38:00 PM »

obama's lead has slipped in the state since the casual faction interactive poll.
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Ronnie
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« Reply #11 on: July 16, 2008, 06:29:38 PM »

I don't see Obama breaking 60% here.  It's infamous for the Bradley effect (it originated here), and McCain plays pretty well in CA.  Plus, almost all of the polls showed Obama leading Hillary before primary day, and lost by an 8.5 point margin.

I think the only places that Obama can do much better than Kerry are in those Alameda-Berkeley psycho areas.
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Fmr. Pres. Duke
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« Reply #12 on: July 16, 2008, 06:36:14 PM »

I don't see Obama breaking 60% here.  It's infamous for the Bradley effect (it originated here), and McCain plays pretty well in CA.  Plus, almost all of the polls showed Obama leading Hillary before primary day, and lost by an 8.5 point margin.

I think the only places that Obama can do much better than Kerry are in those Alameda-Berkeley psycho areas.

Agreed. Polls showed Obama an average of 3% ahead in California and he lost by 9%. Granted, many blame it on early voting, but it still is a Bradley effect. There are too many GOP strongholds in SoCal to allow the state to be over 60% for Obama. McCain is also a good Republican for California. It could be a 15% margin, but not over 20%.
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Alcon
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« Reply #13 on: July 16, 2008, 06:48:35 PM »

Granted, many blame it on early voting, but it still is a Bradley effect.

Err, what?

And it was early voting, demonstrably.
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Torie
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« Reply #14 on: July 16, 2008, 06:54:26 PM »

My vote does not appear to be swaying the masses at this point. That is all.
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ChrisFromNJ
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« Reply #15 on: July 16, 2008, 07:08:26 PM »



Agreed. Polls showed Obama an average of 3% ahead in California and he lost by 9%. Granted, many blame it on early voting, but it still is a Bradley effect.

Huh?

What?
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Flying Dog
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« Reply #16 on: July 16, 2008, 07:24:50 PM »



Agreed. Polls showed Obama an average of 3% ahead in California and he lost by 9%. Granted, many blame it on early voting, but it still is a Bradley effect.

Huh?

What?

^^^^^^^^^^

No, it was early voting. When the early votes came in Clinton was ahead like 55-33. However, as the election day votes came in, it narrowed.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #17 on: July 16, 2008, 08:05:00 PM »

The result in the California primary, when you take into account the early vote for Clinton, demonstrates no significant "Bradley effect."
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Sbane
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« Reply #18 on: July 16, 2008, 10:58:59 PM »

The Bradley affect happened in the 1980's when socal used to chock full of racists. The mexicans have basically scared those types away and there was no real bradley affect here in the primary, it was early voting that took it away from Obama. Anyways he would have only won it by a point or two, Hillary was always very popular in this state. But yeah 60% for Obama is pretty much pushing it. In that case he would have to do much better in the Inland empire and the central valley and that just ain't happening.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #19 on: July 16, 2008, 11:01:49 PM »

McCain? More like McFailure. Am I right?
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Vsanto5
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« Reply #20 on: July 16, 2008, 11:39:15 PM »

I think Obama will end up taking 56% of the popular vote in California I highly doubt it will be at 60% though.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #21 on: July 16, 2008, 11:39:45 PM »

Where is the Bradley effect ? I canīt see it ...

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=820141bb-aa0f-4e2d-b13b-44384b69f1f4

Allthough I think Obama will win CA by 10-15, not by 24 ...
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Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #22 on: July 17, 2008, 12:59:59 AM »

Where is the Bradley effect ? I canīt see it ...

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=820141bb-aa0f-4e2d-b13b-44384b69f1f4

Allthough I think Obama will win CA by 10-15, not by 24 ...

Remember guys, this is the Field Poll... they are the only firm we should trust with California...

Granted, 24% is a big margin, but California is not really a good fit for McCain (despite all the claims to the contrary). Califorinia is the forward edge of the technology, trend, fashion, entertainment and cultural revolution. McCain still telegrams his gold assets in Siam via West Prussia... by autogyro.
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