NC-Rasmussen: McCain slightly ahead of Obama

[Tender Branson]

North Carolina - Survey of 500 Likely Voters - Conducted July 15, 2008:

McCain - 45%
Obama - 42%

With Leaners:

McCain - 48%
Obama - 45%

In the Tar Heel State, McCain is supported by 85% of Republicans and 18% of Democrats. Obama is backed by 69% of Democrats and just 7% of Republicans. Among unaffiliated voters, Obama leads 43% to 33%.

McCain leads 48% to 39% among men, but trails Obama 44% to 42% among women.

Favorability ratings for both candidates have improved slightly over the past month. McCain is viewed favorably by 57%, up two points from last month, and unfavorably by 40%, down two points from last month. Obama’s numbers are 52% favorable, up from 49%, and 45% unfavorable, down from 50% last month.

Opinions about Obama are much stronger than those of McCain. Thirty-one percent (31%) have a Very Favorable view of the Democrat, while 29% have a Very Unfavorable view. McCain’s ratings are 23% Very Favorable and 16% Very Unfavorable.

Link

[Verily]

That's a slight but essentially irrelevant improvement for McCain from a month ago, when he led by two points.

[elcorazon]

poll must suck cuz it didn't come out how I expected it to.

[Josh/Devilman88]

So close but yet so far, I believe the closer we get to the election the closer it will get.

[Democratic Hawk]

poll must suck cuz it didn't come out how I expected it to.

I also expected McCain to be up 15 points, because - you know - he must lead somewhere ...

I expected McCain to be leading by 4 or 5

Yes. That may well be what is happening. Obama consolidating his position in many blue states with McCain, doing likewise, in many red states. If this pattern holds, the purple battleground is likely to narrow, which means a result on par with 2000 or 2004, either way, is plausible

Lets see what NC shows later today. I expect McCain to be ahead by 4 or 5, as well as him maintaining the advantage in NV and being comfortably ahead in AR

Obviously, I'm far from disheartened by this poll

Dave

[Josh/Devilman88]

In the end it will be...

McCain: 51%
Obama: 47%
Other: 2%

[Brittain33]

Is there a Dole-Hagen poll? Didn't see it on the other board.

[Tender Branson]

poll must suck cuz it didn't come out how I expected it to.

I also expected McCain to be up 15 points, because - you know - he must lead somewhere ...

I expected McCain to be leading by 4 or 5

Yes. That may well be what is happening. Obama consolidating his position in many blue states with McCain, doing likewise, in many red states. If this pattern holds, the purple battleground is likely to narrow, which means a result on par with 2000 or 2004, either way, is plausible

Lets see what NC shows later today. I expect McCain to be ahead by 4 or 5, as well as him maintaining the advantage in NV and being comfortably ahead in AR

Obviously, I'm far from disheartened by this poll

Dave

I just looked up the 2004 numbers: In their tracking poll, Rasmussen had Kerry up 1-2% nationally in the second half of July. They also had a July NC poll, showing Bush up 5%. So, as of now, things haven`t changed much compared with 2004. At least not when it comes to Rasmussen.

[Wiz in Wis]

poll must suck cuz it didn't come out how I expected it to.

I also expected McCain to be up 15 points, because - you know - he must lead somewhere ...

I expected McCain to be leading by 4 or 5

Yes. That may well be what is happening. Obama consolidating his position in many blue states with McCain, doing likewise, in many red states. If this pattern holds, the purple battleground is likely to narrow, which means a result on par with 2000 or 2004, either way, is plausible

Lets see what NC shows later today. I expect McCain to be ahead by 4 or 5, as well as him maintaining the advantage in NV and being comfortably ahead in AR

Obviously, I'm far from disheartened by this poll

Dave

I just looked up the 2004 numbers: In their tracking poll, Rasmussen had Kerry up 1-2% nationally in the second half of July. They also had a July NC poll, showing Bush up 5%. So, as of now, things haven`t changed much compared with 2004. At least not when it comes to Rasmussen.

Comparisons like this are essentially meaningless. Do we know what percentage of Democrats Kerry had in July of last year, because Obama is only getting 69%... thats a lot of room to grow.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

I welcome Obama to spend all the money he wants in North Carolina. The polls are about what they were in 2004, and Bush ended up winning by 13. But go ahead and dump millions in the Triangle and Triad.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Well, on July 13th, 2004, Mason-Dixon did a poll of NC that had Bush +3. 

If these close numbers have to stick through September and October... then maybe Dems can start getting excited. 

Let's focus on Virginia, which actually seems like it might happen. 

[Democratic Hawk]

I welcome Obama to spend all the money he wants in North Carolina. The polls are about what they were in 2004, and Bush ended up winning by 13. But go ahead and dump millions in the Triangle and Triad.

It's 2008 now and the economy, not moral values, is the number one issue (47% citing it as such in this poll). In 2004, only 21% of North Carolinians cited economy/jobs as their most important issue and they split 76% Kerry / 22% Bush

Dave

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

I welcome Obama to spend all the money he wants in North Carolina. The polls are about what they were in 2004, and Bush ended up winning by 13. But go ahead and dump millions in the Triangle and Triad.

It's 2008 now and the economy, not moral values, is the number one issue (47% citing it as such in this poll). In 2004, only 21% of North Carolinians cited economy/jobs as their most important issue and they split 76% Kerry / 22% Bush

Dave

The reason for that split was because only Democrats thought the economy was bad in 2004. They also thought it was bad in 2005, 2006, and 2007.

Anyway, I do hope the democrats heed your advice. Spend away in NC, it's not going Dem unless Obama wins by a mini-landslide. Obama has not lead a poll here even during his biggest national lead, but go ahead and continue to believe the Democrats can win there this year.

[Josh/Devilman88]

I welcome Obama to spend all the money he wants in North Carolina. The polls are about what they were in 2004, and Bush ended up winning by 13. But go ahead and dump millions in the Triangle and Triad.

It's 2008 now and the economy, not moral values, is the number one issue (47% citing it as such in this poll). In 2004, only 21% of North Carolinians cited economy/jobs as their most important issue and they split 76% Kerry / 22% Bush

Dave

The reason for that split was because only Democrats thought the economy was bad in 2004. They also thought it was bad in 2005, 2006, and 2007.

Anyway, I do hope the democrats heed your advice. Spend away in NC, it's not going Dem unless Obama wins by a mini-landslide. Obama has not lead a poll here even during his biggest national lead, but go ahead and continue to believe the Democrats can win there this year.

Duke, I do agree with you that Obama will not win NC this year, but we always can go by the polls, I mean look at WI in 2004, right before the election Bush had a soild "small" lead and he lost it, also in NH this year, Obama had a big lead and Clinton won. If NC stays with 5% and it is Sept or Oct, then Obama show put some money into NC.. At the very least he will make McCain spent money in NC.

[Wiz in Wis]

Also, I doubt John Kerry would have expected the increased youth and black turnout that Obama may generate. Further, in 2004 evangelicals had a candidate they loved, and they turned out. This year appears rather different.

[Sbane]

Although the polls show this state is close, I would really hope Obama puts more of an effort in Virginia before North Carolina. I guess he is testing the waters here and the evidence shows that it is worthy of an effort but in no way is this a slam dunk for Obama, in fact I would say it is a slight lean Mccain. I think Obama should campaign in Virginia just like he would in Ohio or Pennsylvania and force Mccain to waste a lot of money in the state. Obama targetting NC probably does not send chills down the MCcain campaigns spines.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

2nd NC poll with Obama at 45%

[Sbane]

2nd NC poll with Obama at 45%

Yeah and I doubt he will get much above that. The liberals and the blacks are solidly behind Obama but those undecided "democrats" are going to swing heavily to Mccain. This is still a pretty southern state outside the Triangle and Charlotte.

[Wiz in Wis]

Although the polls show this state is close, I would really hope Obama puts more of an effort in Virginia before North Carolina. I guess he is testing the waters here and the evidence shows that it is worthy of an effort but in no way is this a slam dunk for Obama, in fact I would say it is a slight lean Mccain. I think Obama should campaign in Virginia just like he would in Ohio or Pennsylvania and force Mccain to waste a lot of money in the state. Obama targetting NC probably does not send chills down the MCcain campaigns spines.

The whole point of the 18 state strategy is to keep as many avenues to 270 open as possible. NC spending and visits forces McCain to react there and not in other places. Now, this helps in OH, PA, MI etc... but, it also distracts from Montana, Missouri, Nevada and even Virginia.  If Obama isn't afraid of losing any blue states, and can pretty much count on Iowa, then only 15 ev's away from the magic number. NM + CO + NV, OH, NM + VA, NV + VA, CO + VA, NM + CO + MT... etc.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

I certainly hopes Obama writes off Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Michigan as being safe in his column and goes after NC, MT, ND, and GA.

[Brittain33]

I certainly hopes Obama writes off Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Michigan as being safe in his column and goes after NC, MT, ND, and GA.

Who was it that said Obama should consider Ohio safe? Thanks.

[NOVA Green]

I welcome Obama to spend all the money he wants in North Carolina. The polls are about what they were in 2004, and Bush ended up winning by 13. But go ahead and dump millions in the Triangle and Triad.

It's 2008 now and the economy, not moral values, is the number one issue (47% citing it as such in this poll). In 2004, only 21% of North Carolinians cited economy/jobs as their most important issue and they split 76% Kerry / 22% Bush

Dave

The reason for that split was because only Democrats thought the economy was bad in 2004. They also thought it was bad in 2005, 2006, and 2007.

Anyway, I do hope the democrats heed your advice. Spend away in NC, it's not going Dem unless Obama wins by a mini-landslide. Obama has not lead a poll here even during his biggest national lead, but go ahead and continue to believe the Democrats can win there this year.

Duke, I do agree with you that Obama will not win NC this year, but we always can go by the polls, I mean look at WI in 2004, right before the election Bush had a soild "small" lead and he lost it, also in NH this year, Obama had a big lead and Clinton won. If NC stays with 5% and it is Sept or Oct, then Obama show put some money into NC.. At the very least he will make McCain spent money in NC.

OK Josh, maybe I missed a thread, but you've been taking a lot of flack for predicting Obama will win NC. Care to explain the change, or do you have a link for me?

[Sbane]

Although the polls show this state is close, I would really hope Obama puts more of an effort in Virginia before North Carolina. I guess he is testing the waters here and the evidence shows that it is worthy of an effort but in no way is this a slam dunk for Obama, in fact I would say it is a slight lean Mccain. I think Obama should campaign in Virginia just like he would in Ohio or Pennsylvania and force Mccain to waste a lot of money in the state. Obama targetting NC probably does not send chills down the MCcain campaigns spines.

The whole point of the 18 state strategy is to keep as many avenues to 270 open as possible. NC spending and visits forces McCain to react there and not in other places. Now, this helps in OH, PA, MI etc... but, it also distracts from Montana, Missouri, Nevada and even Virginia.  If Obama isn't afraid of losing any blue states, and can pretty much count on Iowa, then only 15 ev's away from the magic number. NM + CO + NV, OH, NM + VA, NV + VA, CO + VA, NM + CO + MT... etc.

I think VA is a wonderful "stretch" state for Obama which he really does not need but Mccain basically cannot need. The state is basically a tossup right now and I hope Obama gives whatever he has over there. NC should only be targetted if he is up by 5 in VA and up by 10 in OH and PA. I agree this is only the summer but if polls remain as they have, Obama should stop wasting money in NC.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

I welcome Obama to spend all the money he wants in North Carolina. The polls are about what they were in 2004, and Bush ended up winning by 13. But go ahead and dump millions in the Triangle and Triad.

It's 2008 now and the economy, not moral values, is the number one issue (47% citing it as such in this poll). In 2004, only 21% of North Carolinians cited economy/jobs as their most important issue and they split 76% Kerry / 22% Bush

Dave

The reason for that split was because only Democrats thought the economy was bad in 2004. They also thought it was bad in 2005, 2006, and 2007.

Anyway, I do hope the democrats heed your advice. Spend away in NC, it's not going Dem unless Obama wins by a mini-landslide. Obama has not lead a poll here even during his biggest national lead, but go ahead and continue to believe the Democrats can win there this year.

Duke, I do agree with you that Obama will not win NC this year, but we always can go by the polls, I mean look at WI in 2004, right before the election Bush had a soild "small" lead and he lost it, also in NH this year, Obama had a big lead and Clinton won. If NC stays with 5% and it is Sept or Oct, then Obama show put some money into NC.. At the very least he will make McCain spent money in NC.

That's true, but we also have to look at the traditional swing of the state. Wisconsin was a state that baffled me, but it is a traditional Democrat state for the most part. It went to the Dems every year except the Reagan landslides and Nixon landslides. North Carolina is a traditionally Republican state. It's more accurate to compare NC to NJ. Both states might be within 5% according to the polls, but both could end up being 8-10% victories for the GOP and Dems.

I certainly hopes Obama writes off Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Michigan as being safe in his column and goes after NC, MT, ND, and GA.

Who was it that said Obama should consider Ohio safe? Thanks.

Sorry, OH was red. I mean Pennsylvania and Michigan. Polls right now are showing them lean Obama, but they aren't to the point where we can say he can forget them as being competitive.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

2nd NC poll with Obama at 45%

Yeah and I doubt he will get much above that. The liberals and the blacks are solidly behind Obama but those undecided "democrats" are going to swing heavily to Mccain. This is still a pretty southern state outside the Triangle and Charlotte.

I'm noticing quite a few of Obamas poll numbers are settling around where I think the end result way well be.

I think McCain is the one who's got the bigger undecided factor going on right now.