Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 16, 2014, 05:00:50 pm
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Atlas Hardware Upgrade complete October 13, 2013.

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Election Archive
| |-+  2004 U.S. Presidential Election
| | |-+  2004 U.S. Presidential Election Polls
| | | |-+  Recent polls
« previous next »
Pages: [1] Print
Author Topic: Recent polls  (Read 2530 times)
○∙◄☻tπ[╪AV┼cV└
jfern
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 30563


View Profile
« on: September 03, 2004, 04:42:18 pm »
Ignore

Economist - Tie
ARG - Tie
Zogby - Bush +2
Rasmussen - Bush +4
Time - Bush +11

Hmmm, one of these doesn't belong.
Logged
Beef
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2645
United States


Political Matrix
E: -3.42, S: -6.70

P
View Profile
« Reply #1 on: September 03, 2004, 04:48:53 pm »
Ignore

Economist - Tie
ARG - Tie
Zogby - Bush +2
Rasmussen - Bush +4
Time - Bush +11

Hmmm, one of these doesn't belong.

Were all of these post-RNC?

Let's wait until we have several polls conducted entirely after Bush's speech.  Then we'll have a much better picture of what's going on.

Time could be a harbinger of things to come.  It could also be anomaly.  Only time (*g*) will tell.
Logged

○∙◄☻tπ[╪AV┼cV└
jfern
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 30563


View Profile
« Reply #2 on: September 03, 2004, 04:50:16 pm »
Ignore

Economist - Tie
ARG - Tie
Zogby - Bush +2
Rasmussen - Bush +4
Time - Bush +11

Hmmm, one of these doesn't belong.

Were all of these post-RNC?

Let's wait until we have several polls conducted entirely after Bush's speech.  Then we'll have a much better picture of what's going on.

Time could be a harbinger of things to come.  It could also be anomaly.  Only time (*g*) will tell.


I don't think any post-RNC polls are out. All of these polls were based on polling during the convention.
Logged
Bogart
bogart414
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 604
United States


Political Matrix
E: -0.13, S: -5.39

View Profile
« Reply #3 on: September 03, 2004, 05:08:04 pm »
Ignore

Economist - Tie
ARG - Tie
Zogby - Bush +2
Rasmussen - Bush +4
Time - Bush +11

Hmmm, one of these doesn't belong.
Yeah, probably a fluke. That's to much.
Logged

Economic score: -0.65
Social score: -2.61

The Vorlon
Vorlon
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4565


Political Matrix
E: 8.00, S: -4.21

View Profile
« Reply #4 on: September 03, 2004, 05:13:13 pm »
Ignore

Economist - Tie
ARG - Tie
Zogby - Bush +2
Rasmussen - Bush +4
Time - Bush +11

Hmmm, one of these doesn't belong.

Economist = Internet based => highly suspect
ARG = Wretched almost painfully bad sample design and consistently pro Kerry this year
Zogby - Systematic anti-Bush bias and comically bad record for accuracy.

Rasmussen - weighted by party ID - damps out swings...

Personally, I don't believe the Bush +11 either.... FWIIW....

But other than the Bot Poll which I sorta-maybe trust, the rest of the lot you quote are also pretty hopeless...

Let's wait for the "real" polls..

We'll have a Gallup, and an Opinion Dymanics this weekend, an ABC on Monday, and I think a TIPP by Mid week.

For comedy relief I think we also get a new CBS poll tonight.

Up till now we have two junk polls, a bot-track and an unknown

We have no RELIABLE information on the race from these 4 polls.

Everybody on both sides, sit down, take a deep breath, and pop a valium.

Repeat after me...

Wait for Gallup, TIPP, Ipsos, OD, Harris and the folks who know what they are actually doing...

Bush might be up 11, or not...

We just don't know yet Smiley

« Last Edit: September 03, 2004, 05:16:16 pm by The Vorlon »Logged

No man's liberty is safe while Congress is in session...Thomas Jefferson
HennessyXO
Rookie
*
Posts: 30


View Profile
« Reply #5 on: September 04, 2004, 12:12:55 am »
Ignore

these polls with sample pools of 500-1000 are not accurate.  Kerry will win because all the online polls with sampling errors of thousands show Kerry ahead.  End of discussion.
Logged
The Vorlon
Vorlon
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4565


Political Matrix
E: 8.00, S: -4.21

View Profile
« Reply #6 on: September 04, 2004, 12:44:25 am »
Ignore

these polls with sample pools of 500-1000 are not accurate.  Kerry will win because all the online polls with sampling errors of thousands show Kerry ahead.  End of discussion.

Your right.  I agree.

Kerry wins let's all go home Smiley
Logged

No man's liberty is safe while Congress is in session...Thomas Jefferson
CARLHAYDEN
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10660


Political Matrix
E: 1.38, S: -0.51

View Profile
« Reply #7 on: September 04, 2004, 07:07:10 am »
Ignore

I think HennessyXO has had a few too many.
Logged

Registered in Arizona for Fantasy election purposes.
dazzleman
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13821
Political Matrix
E: 1.88, S: 1.59

View Profile
« Reply #8 on: September 04, 2004, 07:15:36 am »
Ignore

these polls with sample pools of 500-1000 are not accurate.  Kerry will win because all the online polls with sampling errors of thousands show Kerry ahead.  End of discussion.

Not necessarily true.  What matters is that the people answering the polls represent a true representative cross-section of the VOTING public.

This is getting harder to pull off.  A poll on a certain website will most likely not be representative of the voting population, for a number of reasons.  First, if the website has a certain political orientation, that will most definitely skew the results.  Second, there is no indication of how likely the respondents are to actually vote.  Then there's the issue of computer owners/internet users only having access to the poll.

A smaller sampling, with greater randomness, would be more accurate than online polls.  I was shocked at the AOL straw poll, which had George W. Bush with 64% nationally, and 58% in Connecticut.  Likewise, on the MSNBC poll, Kerry had 70%.  Clearly, these polls can't be very accurate.
Logged
MODU
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 22108
United States


View Profile WWW
« Reply #9 on: September 04, 2004, 09:06:14 am »
Ignore


Online polls = bad

I trust them as well as I trust my second (ex) g/f.  Grin
Logged

Attention bloggers:  Join SeededBuzz and gain access to thousands of new readers.  Simply paste a link and summary of your article for community members to link back to, drawing more activity to your site.  Membership is FREE!

Visit MODU's Musings


"Anybody who doesn't appreciate what America has done and President Bush, let them go to hell." - Betty Dawisha, Iraqi vote
Pages: [1] Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2013, Simple Machines