WI-08-Public Opinion Strategies (R): McCain up 5

[Tender Branson]

The poll also found that Republican presidential candidate John McCain leads Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama 46 percent to 41 percent. Twelve percent of likely voters were undecided.

Scattergood said that result also fits with the district's history of voting for George Bush over Democratic opponents Al Gore and John Kerry.

http://www.postcrescent.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080717/APC0101/80717137/1979

[Alcon]

I'm always suspicious of polls like these, but the 2004 result was Bush +11, for the record.

[NOVA Green]

I'm always suspicious of polls like these, but the 2004 result was Bush +11, for the record.

Alcon, but why is this any more valid than the OH-01 poll that showed Obama up 46-39 in a district that Bush narrowly won at 50-50 in '04?

Thx for the historical record though, you're always awesome with the numbers.

[Alcon]

Alcon, but why is this any more valid than the OH-01 poll that showed Obama up 46-39 in a district that Bush narrowly won at 50-50 in '04?

I don't think it is.  I'm mostly suspicious of CD polls because I don't understand them.  I don't understand how they determine which CD people are in (phone prefixes?  Kinda half-accurate), and because even those factors considered, they seem to be off more than other polls...

But, who knows.