War Guarantees
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Question: Was Chamberlain's 1939 war guarantee to Poland wise?/ Would Bush be wise to offer a war guarantee to Israel?
#1
Yes/Yes
 
#2
Yes/No
 
#3
No/Yes
 
#4
No/No
 
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Author Topic: War Guarantees  (Read 4267 times)
SPC
Chuck Hagel 08
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« on: July 18, 2008, 07:46:24 PM »

No/No, obviously. The former led to WWII, the Holocaust, 6,000,000 Polish deaths and Soviet rule over Eastern Europe. Who knows what consequences the latter would have.
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benconstine
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« Reply #1 on: July 18, 2008, 08:35:47 PM »

No/No.  If Israel randomly attacks a country, for no reason, we should not defend them.  However, promise to defend them if they are attacked first, of course.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #2 on: July 19, 2008, 07:49:07 AM »

The Nazis were always going to go on a mad conquest-and-destruction spree... that much is blindingly obvious to anyone who's ever looked at Nazi economic policy, let alone the bloody rhetoric...
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Хahar 🤔
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« Reply #3 on: July 19, 2008, 01:15:41 PM »

The Nazis were always going to go on a mad conquest-and-destruction spree... that much is blindingly obvious to anyone who's ever looked at Nazi economic policy, let alone the bloody rhetoric...
^^^^^^

It's always amusing to see people guess (incorrectly) at such things.
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J. J.
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« Reply #4 on: July 19, 2008, 02:30:55 PM »

My guess is that it possibly made the Nazis pause, and negotiate with the Soviets.  I could have seen basically no Anglo-French guarantees and Hitler invading in the Spring of 1939, and possibly winning more quickly with a stronger army intact.
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Tetro Kornbluth
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« Reply #5 on: July 27, 2008, 05:24:00 PM »

Wait a minute.. Are you comparing the Situation of Poland in 1939 to Israel in 2008? Of all the things ever said on the forum, this is possibly the most moronic and ill-informed (excluding anything Richius ever posted)

Also the Evidence that the Holocaust would never have happened without the War (which was always going to happen anyway, see Al's post) is Scanty at best... at best the Nazis would have mass deported all the Jews and other Undesirables.. probably in subhuman conditions where hundreds of thousands nay millions would have died and needless to say the conditions to this new land would not have been very accomodating.

And yet again Hitler was always going to invade the Soviet Union.

Errr.. PBrunsel Churchill didn't make the War Guarantee, that was Chamberlain. Then only after the Nazis had taken over the whole of Czechoslovakia regening on their agreement earlier over the Sudetenland.

Also this is Wrong:

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Umm.. No. Really, Really No. You are confusing the situation with that before world war one. Poland on the other hand was a very strong ally of the French and a military dictatorship.

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Danzig was an independent "free State" under the League of Nations. Though it is true that Poland was not going to give over to Germany. Furthermore the Polish Government (like the French) had a woeful, to say the least, understanding of their military capability vis-a-vis Nazi Germany.

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Huh

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Well, we agree on this. (Though I think in many ways the British Empire was preferable to the French. But this is no comparsion between two bodies of great virtue). Had Lord Halifax became Prime Minister after Chamberlain resigned in 1940 then maybe we might have seen a settlement (but o/c it would have only been temporary... Remember many conservatives originally saw Hitler as a potential ally against the Commies.)

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As I pointed out earlier Poland was also strongly Anti-communist and they had defeated the Red Army years earlier.

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Not a hope in hell. You completely underestimate how much no Eastern European government least of all the Polish were going to align themselves with the USSR. Remember Romania, Bulgaria and Hungary all fought for the Axis in the War. Only in Yugoslavia was there much co-operation between Soviets and the pre-existing elite but only as far as I know after the occupation and invasion in 1940. (And then only among the traditional Russophile Serbs.)

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Had Britain stayed isolationist (hah!) then surely the Iron Curtain would stretch as far as Portugal.. or Hitler would have won the war.
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PBrunsel
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« Reply #6 on: July 27, 2008, 05:47:33 PM »

Gully Foyle,

I bow to the better man in the debate. Your post makes a great deal more sense then mine had and your argument is far stronger. After reviewing my ramblings I have seen the error of my post and my history. I guess I should read far more about European geopolitics before opining again. Smiley
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Tetro Kornbluth
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« Reply #7 on: July 27, 2008, 06:02:22 PM »

Gully Foyle,

I bow to the better man in the debate. Your post makes a great deal more sense then mine had and your argument is far stronger. After reviewing my ramblings I have seen the error of my post and my history. I guess I should read far more about European geopolitics before opining again. Smiley

Fair Enough. No matter I myself ramble alot sometimes.

Anyway it is suffice to say that you know more about Herbert Hoover than I do. Smiley
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12th Doctor
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« Reply #8 on: July 27, 2008, 08:04:19 PM »

No/No, obviously. The former led to WWII, the Holocaust, 6,000,000 Polish deaths and Soviet rule over Eastern Europe. Who knows what consequences the latter would have.

Are you serious?  Do you really think offering a promise to Poland over German invasion is what caused WWII.  It was Hitler's dreams of conquest, megalomania, and his ability to bring a mass delusion on the German populace?  And do you really think Hitler wouldn't have killed the Jews without a war going on?  Nuts.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #9 on: July 29, 2008, 12:29:14 PM »

And do you really think Hitler wouldn't have killed the Jews without a war going on?

There are good reasons to think that actually. Trouble is... there's no good reason, none whatsoever, to assume that the Nazis might not have gone on a war-and-destruction spree...
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Chuck Hagel 08
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« Reply #10 on: July 30, 2008, 12:17:20 PM »

Wait a minute.. Are you comparing the Situation of Poland in 1939 to Israel in 2008? Of all the things ever said on the forum, this is possibly the most moronic and ill-informed (excluding anything Richius ever posted)

Also the Evidence that the Holocaust would never have happened without the War (which was always going to happen anyway, see Al's post) is Scanty at best... at best the Nazis would have mass deported all the Jews and other Undesirables.. probably in subhuman conditions where hundreds of thousands nay millions would have died and needless to say the conditions to this new land would not have been very accomodating.

So, an ad hominem attack is your evidence against my claim?

I acknowledge that the Holocaust likely would have happened. However, without the World War, only the Jews in Germany, Austria, Czechslovakia, and part of Poland. Without the war guarantee, the Jews of Holland, Belgium, France, Italy, Yugoslavia, Greece, Hungary, Romania, and Bulgaria would have most likely been saved. Also, you neglect to mention that the Final Solution wasn't made until 1942.

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And what's wrong with that? Stalin murdered more people than Hitler did.

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You neglect to mention that Poland was surrounded by the Nazis in the West and North and the Communists in the East. After the Nazi-Soviet Nonagression Pact, Poland was dommed. Also, Churchill encouraged Chamberlain to made the foolish guarantee.

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Danzig was an independent "free State" under the League of Nations. Though it is true that Poland was not going to give over to Germany. Furthermore the Polish Government (like the French) had a woeful, to say the least, understanding of their military capability vis-a-vis Nazi Germany. [/quote]

It was under Polish administration.

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Had Britain stayed isolationist (hah!) then surely the Iron Curtain would stretch as far as Portugal.. or Hitler would have won the war.

[/quote]

Nonsense! Hitler's aspirations were in the East. He didn't go into the West until after britain and France declared war. Had Britain stayed out of the war, Hitler and Stalin likely would have had to fight against each other by themselves, thus weakening both tyrannical regimes. Also, please explain why what Chamberlain did at Munich was any worse than what Churchill did at Yalta?
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SPC
Chuck Hagel 08
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« Reply #11 on: July 30, 2008, 12:20:10 PM »

No/No, obviously. The former led to WWII, the Holocaust, 6,000,000 Polish deaths and Soviet rule over Eastern Europe. Who knows what consequences the latter would have.

Are you serious?  Do you really think offering a promise to Poland over German invasion is what caused WWII.  It was Hitler's dreams of conquest, megalomania, and his ability to bring a mass delusion on the German populace?  And do you really think Hitler wouldn't have killed the Jews without a war going on?  Nuts.

WWII started after the Polish guarantee. As I said earlier, without a war going on, Hitler's ability to kill that many Jews would hav ebeen seriously diminished. And you don't even mention how the British guarantee was completely counterproductive, since half of the Jews killed in the Holocaust were Polish, an additional 3 million Poles were killed, and Poland had to suffer 5 years of Nazi rule and 45 years of Communist rule.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #12 on: July 30, 2008, 07:47:01 PM »

However, without the World War, only the Jews in Germany, Austria, Czechslovakia, and part of Poland. Without the war guarantee, the Jews of Holland, Belgium, France, Italy, Yugoslavia, Greece, Hungary, Romania, and Bulgaria would have most likely been saved.

Even if this demented idea that there would have been no war without a war guarantee is accepted as the truth (and it rather obviously shouldn't be), I should point out that the Jewish population in the group of four countries above was far larger than the latter group.
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Myth. The mass murder of the Jews of Europe started on the eastern front in the summer of 1941.

"Over Babiy Yar
there are no memorials"

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Some people think that genocide, ethnic cleansing and total war are bad things. Note also that the Holocaust only began after the invasion of the Soviet Union.
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Both disputable and totally beside the point.
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Danzig was most certainly not[/i under Polish administration. It is part of Poland now but was not then.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #13 on: July 30, 2008, 07:59:35 PM »

WWII started after the Polish guarantee. As I said earlier, without a war going on, Hitler's ability to kill that many Jews would hav ebeen seriously diminished. And you don't even mention how the British guarantee was completely counterproductive, since half of the Jews killed in the Holocaust were Polish, an additional 3 million Poles were killed, and Poland had to suffer 5 years of Nazi rule and 45 years of Communist rule.

Where exactly did you pick up this strange delusion that the Nazis only went on a mad conquest-and-murder spree because Britain and France declared war on them [qm].
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #14 on: July 31, 2008, 05:05:03 AM »

Not sure / No.

On some of the points: Hitler was always going to attack, sooner or later, all countries with Eastern European Jews and/or governing "Marxists" unless prevented from doing so. Other countries such as the contemptible French and the fishlike British only if they stood in his way.

He wasn't going to go away by internal uprising - that much was clear by 1936.

The Holocaust as happened would not of course have happened without the war - duh. Most of its victims were not within Hitler's grasp without a war.
What is certainly a correct point is that government-organized mass killing of German and Austrian Jews would not have occurred without the war situation (which in turn was inevitable) - the Nazis were perfectly fine with Jews emigrating, as long as they left any fortune they might have behind and didn't go to a place where they would be a danger to Germany in the foreseeable future. Ie, preferrably to a colonial possession outside Europe. Such as Palestine.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #15 on: July 31, 2008, 05:56:09 AM »

as long as they left any fortune they might have behind and didn't go to a place where they would be a danger to Germany in the foreseeable future. Ie, preferrably to a colonial possession outside Europe. Such as Palestine.

And, of course, the Madagascar Plan.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #16 on: July 31, 2008, 08:52:24 AM »

That as well. Though it didn't have any far reaching consequences. Grin
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« Reply #17 on: July 31, 2008, 12:32:40 PM »

as long as they left any fortune they might have behind and didn't go to a place where they would be a danger to Germany in the foreseeable future. Ie, preferrably to a colonial possession outside Europe. Such as Palestine.

And, of course, the Madagascar Plan.

That is one of the most interesting stages of Nazi racial planning.
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« Reply #18 on: July 31, 2008, 04:01:39 PM »

The Nazis were always going to go on a mad conquest-and-destruction spree... that much is blindingly obvious to anyone who's ever looked at Nazi economic policy, let alone the bloody rhetoric...
 

I remember reading an interesting article from the mid 1930s (from The Nation I think..) arguing it was inevitable that Germany was preparing for a major European war because it's re-armament was fueled on so massive a deficit that it necessitated a massive expansion of the Third Reich just to pay for it..

Like you said, should be pretty ing obvious really, even without the benefit of hindsight..
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Bacon King
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« Reply #19 on: July 31, 2008, 05:36:21 PM »

lol! SPC, you're either a dumbass or a fraud if you believe it was the UK's protection of Poland that caused the Holocaust and not the Nazi's own twisted intentions.
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Chuck Hagel 08
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« Reply #20 on: August 01, 2008, 12:57:21 PM »

However, without the World War, only the Jews in Germany, Austria, Czechslovakia, and part of Poland. Without the war guarantee, the Jews of Holland, Belgium, France, Italy, Yugoslavia, Greece, Hungary, Romania, and Bulgaria would have most likely been saved.

Even if this demented idea that there would have been no war without a war guarantee is accepted as the truth (and it rather obviously shouldn't be), I should point out that the Jewish population in the group of four countries above was far larger than the latter group.

Yes, but the destruction would have been limited to those areas. The Jews of the rest of Europe would have survived. Additionally, the Jews that were in those areas could have left Germany for Palestine or the United States, since there would be no war going on.

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Myth. The mass murder of the Jews of Europe started on the eastern front in the summer of 1941.[/quote]

Almost two years after the war began.

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Some people think that genocide, ethnic cleansing and total war are bad things. Note also that the Holocaust only began after the invasion of the Soviet Union.[/quote]

And why should Stalin be given a free pass for genocide, ethnic cleansing, and total war? Stalin invaded Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, and Romania prior to Operation Barbarosa (sp?) and additionally placed East Germany, Czechoslovakia, Hungary, Bulgaria, Yugoslavia, and Albania under the Iron Curtain. Its not like he was morally superior to Hitler when it came to invading independent nations.

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Danzig was most certainly not[/i under Polish administration. It is part of Poland now but was not then.
[/quote]

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Chuck Hagel 08
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« Reply #21 on: August 01, 2008, 12:59:44 PM »

lol! SPC, you're either a dumbass or a fraud if you believe it was the UK's protection of Poland that caused the Holocaust and not the Nazi's own twisted intentions.

Of course the Nazis were directly responsible for the Holocaust. I am not trying to place the blame on somewhere else. However, the British protection of Poland did absolutely nothing to protect Poland's Jews and Christians from being slaughtered by the Nazi regime and subsuqently ruled by the Soviets for an additional 45 years.
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Chuck Hagel 08
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« Reply #22 on: August 01, 2008, 01:01:23 PM »

Not sure / No.

On some of the points: Hitler was always going to attack, sooner or later, all countries with Eastern European Jews and/or governing "Marxists" unless prevented from doing so. Other countries such as the contemptible French and the fishlike British only if they stood in his way.

He wasn't going to go away by internal uprising - that much was clear by 1936.

The Holocaust as happened would not of course have happened without the war - duh. Most of its victims were not within Hitler's grasp without a war.
What is certainly a correct point is that government-organized mass killing of German and Austrian Jews would not have occurred without the war situation (which in turn was inevitable) - the Nazis were perfectly fine with Jews emigrating, as long as they left any fortune they might have behind and didn't go to a place where they would be a danger to Germany in the foreseeable future. Ie, preferrably to a colonial possession outside Europe. Such as Palestine.


Precisely.
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« Reply #23 on: August 01, 2008, 02:36:55 PM »

However, without the World War, only the Jews in Germany, Austria, Czechslovakia, and part of Poland. Without the war guarantee, the Jews of Holland, Belgium, France, Italy, Yugoslavia, Greece, Hungary, Romania, and Bulgaria would have most likely been saved.

Even if this demented idea that there would have been no war without a war guarantee is accepted as the truth (and it rather obviously shouldn't be), I should point out that the Jewish population in the group of four countries above was far larger than the latter group.

Yes, but the destruction would have been limited to those areas. The Jews of the rest of Europe would have survived. Additionally, the Jews that were in those areas could have left Germany for Palestine or the United States, since there would be no war going on.

Nope. Not after 1935 or so.

Also, you neglect to mention that the Final Solution wasn't made until 1942.

Myth. The mass murder of the Jews of Europe started on the eastern front in the summer of 1941.

Almost two years after the war began.

But it had been planned long before. Its coniciding with the war was just that, a coincidence.


Some people think that genocide, ethnic cleansing and total war are bad things. Note also that the Holocaust only began after the invasion of the Soviet Union.

And why should Stalin be given a free pass for genocide, ethnic cleansing, and total war? Stalin invaded Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, and Romania prior to Operation Barbarosa (sp?) and additionally placed East Germany, Czechoslovakia, Hungary, Bulgaria, Yugoslavia, and Albania under the Iron Curtain. Its not like he was morally superior to Hitler when it came to invading independent nations.

Neither was the United States.


Danzig was most certainly not[/i under Polish administration. It is part of Poland now but was not then.

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Wikipedia doesn't always give the full truth.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #24 on: August 01, 2008, 04:07:52 PM »

Yes, but the destruction would have been limited to those areas. The Jews of the rest of Europe would have survived. Additionally, the Jews that were in those areas could have left Germany for Palestine or the United States, since there would be no war going on.

A sufficiently nauseous argument for me not to bother with replying to in any detail.

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No. Days. The war on the eastern front didn't begin until 1941. And did you not yourself acknowledge (more or less) that Hitler was always going to attack the Soviet Union?

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What?

Sorry, I don't think that you quite understand the point I was trying to make. Let me make this very clear; a Nazi invasion of the Soviet Union was always going to lead to genocide, ethnic cleansing and total war. This was deliberate Nazi policy, openly stated.

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I'm not quite sure why you assume that I must be defending Stalin...

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[/quote]

This is not Polish administration. Polish administration would mean that the city was run by the Polish government; it rather obviously wasn't. As that quote itself makes very clear at the end.
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