The Bounce begins: Bush up 11

[zorkpolitics]

TIME Poll: Among likely voters, 52% would vote for President George Bush, while 41% would vote for John Kerry and 3% would vote for Ralph Nader  

Looks like Bush's speech and RNC were more succesful than the DNC and Kerry.

http://www.time.com/time/press_releases/article/0,8599,692562,00.html

Poll taken Aug 31 to Sep 2.

This exceeds my prediciton of a 5% bounce, of course we'll need another week of polling to get an average bounce.

[The Vorlon]

TIME Poll: Among likely voters, 52% would vote for President George Bush, while 41% would vote for John Kerry and 3% would vote for Ralph Nader  

Looks like Bush's speech and RNC were more succesful than the DNC and Kerry.

http://www.time.com/time/press_releases/article/0,8599,692562,00.html

Poll taken Aug 31 to Sep 2.

This exceeds my prediciton of a 5% bounce, of course we'll need another week of polling to get an average bounce.

Fixing Link

http://www.time.com/time/press_releases/article/0,8599,692562,00.html

Will post back later when I have reviewed the poll, but my first reaction is... surprised to say the least...

[NHPolitico]

pre-speech.

[© tweed]

Yes this was taken pre-speech which probably means Bush is really up 15-18 points.

The election is over.

[Bogart]

Methodology: The TIME Poll was conducted August 31 – September 2 by telephone among a random sample of 1,316 adults, including 1,128 reported registered voters and 926 likely voters. The margin of error for registered voters is +/- 3% points, and +/- 4% points for likely voters. Schulman, Ronca, & Bucuvalas (SRBI) Public Affairs conducted the poll, and more complete results are attached.

Good or bad firm? I'm not that poll saavy. And, if this is pre-speech...could it really be this high? Frankly, I'm skeptical.  Answers anyone?

[JNB]

  In Sept 2000, Bush spiked up to 10 points in the polls, but Gore clawed back. Gores main mistake is he didnt play the economic populist card as he should have. It is up to kerry on what way to go. One thing not in your presidents favor is the lowballed expectations in t he debates.

[The Vorlon]

Methodology: The TIME Poll was conducted August 31 – September 2 by telephone among a random sample of 1,316 adults, including 1,128 reported registered voters and 926 likely voters. The margin of error for registered voters is +/- 3% points, and +/- 4% points for likely voters. Schulman, Ronca, & Bucuvalas (SRBI) Public Affairs conducted the poll, and more complete results are attached.

Good or bad firm? I'm not that poll saavy. And, if this is pre-speech...could it really be this high? Frankly, I'm skeptical.  Answers anyone?

I have found the full .pdf but it is from their Aug 26th poll

Here is a link to the site of the firm that did the poll.

The do not have this poll "up" yet

http://www.srbi.com/home.html

Time went through 4 pollsters in 4 editions a few months back - I just don't know these guys and have no comment till I read it carefully

[Reds4]

Boss, I'll assume your either joking or you're trying to get low expectations for Kerry. Surely you know the election is FAR from over.

 Anyone have a party id breakdown from this poll? Seems too high to me, but I sure hope its right.

[NHPolitico]

Expectations for Bush speaking publicly are always low. I am one of those people. I liked the analogy that watching Bush speak publicly is like watching a waiter carrying an uneasy load of plates across a dining room. It's like a high wire act at the circus. You know it's possible to pull it off flawlessly, but it wouldn't shock you the least if it ended up BADLY.

[Bogart]

Bush vs. Kerry:

The economy: 47% trust President Bush more to handle the economy, while 45% trust Kerry.

Health care: 48% trust Senator Kerry to handle health care issues, while 42% trust Bush.

Iraq: 53% trust Bush to handle the situation in Iraq, while 41% trust Kerry.

Terrorism: 57% trust Bush to handle the war on terrorism, while 36% trust Kerry.

Understanding the needs of people: 47% said they trust Kerry to understand the needs of people like themselves, while 44% trusted Bush to understand their needs.

Providing strong leadership: 56% said they trust Bush to provide strong leadership in difficult times, while 37% said they trust Kerry to provide leadership in difficult times.

Tax policy: 49% trust Bush to handle tax policy, while 40% trust Kerry.

Commanding the Armed Forces: 54% said they trust Bush to be commander-in-chief of the armed forces, while 39% said they trust Kerry.

Most of these sound right. One would expect Bush to outscore Kerry on security issues. I am surprised by the economy indicator. Kerry would have us believe that Americans are fed up with Bush's "reckless" economic policies.

[© tweed]

Boss, I'll assume your either joking or you're trying to get low expectations for Kerry. Surely you know the election is FAR from over.

 Anyone have a party id breakdown from this poll? Seems too high to me, but I sure hope its right.

What in the world makes you think Kerry can comeback?

He looked at his overnight private polls, had the living sh**t scared out of him, and called bill and told him to have a heart attack.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

  In Sept 2000, Bush spiked up to 10 points in the polls, but Gore clawed back. Gores main mistake is he didnt play the economic populist card as he should have. It is up to kerry on what way to go. One thing not in your presidents favor is the lowballed expectations in t he debates.

Why are you not out looking for a job?

[NHPolitico]

So, a draw on domestic issues and a campaign to peg Kerry as too weak and indecisive to lead and protect families from threats was wildly successful.  That sounds about right.

[JNB]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

  Your presidents economic policies are quite wreckless. He doesnt do anything about unfair trade practices with Asian countries, Bush doing nothing to stop the currency minipulations by China and Japan by their buying US bonds has continued to hurt US industry and helped create a dangerous real estate bubble, non enforcement of immigration laws hurts the working class in the US, and his DOMESTIC spending has had the most wreckless increases since LBJ.

  Again I will restate, Bush is an LBJ Democrat rather being a Conservative, and a disgrace.

[Friar]

There were numbers of polls the last  week and none of them showed this big bounce.

I would wait to see a couple more polls before declaring the election over

All of the polls show a dead heat race except this one.

[The Vorlon]

Link to Methodology of this poll

http://www.srbi.com/time-srbi-2004-poll-methodology.pdf

Pure RDD but corrected after the fact for married/single, age race, etc.

It's "ok" but not great.  This way of doing things is a lot cheaper than Harris (who Time fired) but better than a few others out there...

Still reading

[DFLofMN]

It was an emotionally charged appeal when the whole convention was taken as a whole.  Lets, wait a week to see how large the bounce from the whole convention plays out, and also how Kerry responds to it.  Then the size of the bounce can be better seen

[??????????]

If Bush stays above 10% nationally then this is my prediction. Yes it looks partisan but a 10% lead would get him this.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

just one poll, from a firm which is apparentely just "OK"

also, I didn't see this, but I heard that Woodruff accidentely said on CNN that this poll might have some "problems" since another one due out today has Bush and Kerry tied. Apparentely she didn't know the cameras were on.

It's interesting to see how things go, but I am sure Bush won't keep these numbers.

[Horus]

Bush may very well be up 5 or 6, but I don't think he's up THIS much. Let's see how things look in a week. Also, I think Kerry will win the debates, so probably in a month and a half at most numbers will be tied again. Though, if this poll is actually correct, it is very good news for Bush, but Kerry STILL can bounce back.

[Bogart]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

  Your presidents economic policies are quite wreckless. He doesnt do anything about unfair trade practices with Asian countries, Bush doing nothing to stop the currency minipulations by China and Japan by their buying US bonds has continued to hurt US industry and helped create a dangerous real estate bubble, non enforcement of immigration laws hurts the working class in the US, and his DOMESTIC spending has had the most wreckless increases since LBJ.

  Again I will restate, Bush is an LBJ Democrat rather being a Conservative, and a disgrace.

Well, I was only remarking on the poll results.  It appears that a number of Americans disagree with your sentiments.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

If Bush stays above 10% nationally then this is my prediction. Yes it looks partisan but a 10% lead would get him this.

not California, Hawaii and New Jersey. All states Gore won by more than 10 points.

[The Vorlon]

If Bush stays above 10% nationally then this is my prediction. Yes it looks partisan but a 10% lead would get him this.

not California, Hawaii and New Jersey. All states Gore won by more than 10 points.

At Bush +10 Jersey is close...

If pigs could fly.....

If the moon were made of green cheese.....

Let's wait for another poll or two

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Over almost the same time, ARG had Bush up 1, and Zogby had Bush up 2. Hmmm, which one doesn't belong?

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Boss, I'll assume your either joking or you're trying to get low expectations for Kerry. Surely you know the election is FAR from over.

 Anyone have a party id breakdown from this poll? Seems too high to me, but I sure hope its right.

What in the world makes you think Kerry can comeback?

He looked at his overnight private polls, had the living sh**t scared out of him, and called bill and told him to have a heart attack.

 you