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Author Topic: JLT's House Predictions: Final Version, No For Real This Time  (Read 8688 times)
Keystone Phil
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« Reply #25 on: July 19, 2008, 06:28:51 pm »
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Where were and are these seats?  Which counties?

Veon (lost in 2006) - 14th district - Beaver county

DeWeese - 50th district - Fayette, Greene and Washington counties

Are Democrats likely to get back the 14th in a Presidential year or did they fumble this one as well?

That's the one I referenced in my post responding to Al. Everyone believed that Marshall would be gone after one term; that the voters just wanted to be rid of Veon and would wait two years for another Democrat. I don't know the state of Marshall's race though. I'll try to find out.

DeWeese is going to lose if he stays around until November. There are calls for his resignation as leader. If he did that, I bet he'd just leave the House as well. If he sticks around, I don't see how he wins. DeWeese was unopposed in his primary and still had to spend hundreds of thousands. Why? He needed to win back the confidence of Democrats. It didn't work that well. 25% of Democrats wrote in his GOP opponent (the same guy from 2006) against DeWeese.

It looks as if the voter registration in that district is so Democratic that DeWeese could lose 25% of Dems and still win, but its unlikely. 

He's in a lot more trouble than he was in 2006. He only won by six points in 2006. He's done.
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« Reply #26 on: July 19, 2008, 06:50:55 pm »
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Where were and are these seats?  Which counties?

Veon (lost in 2006) - 14th district - Beaver county

DeWeese - 50th district - Fayette, Greene and Washington counties

Are Democrats likely to get back the 14th in a Presidential year or did they fumble this one as well?

That's the one I referenced in my post responding to Al. Everyone believed that Marshall would be gone after one term; that the voters just wanted to be rid of Veon and would wait two years for another Democrat. I don't know the state of Marshall's race though. I'll try to find out.

DeWeese is going to lose if he stays around until November. There are calls for his resignation as leader. If he did that, I bet he'd just leave the House as well. If he sticks around, I don't see how he wins. DeWeese was unopposed in his primary and still had to spend hundreds of thousands. Why? He needed to win back the confidence of Democrats. It didn't work that well. 25% of Democrats wrote in his GOP opponent (the same guy from 2006) against DeWeese.

It looks as if the voter registration in that district is so Democratic that DeWeese could lose 25% of Dems and still win, but its unlikely. 

He's in a lot more trouble than he was in 2006. He only won by six points in 2006. He's done.

It looks like Bob Casey won here by about 64%-36% in the 2006 Senate race.  DeWeese ran about 11 points behind Casey. 
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« Reply #27 on: July 19, 2008, 06:52:07 pm »
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Winning by 6 points is a decent margin, Phil. I wouldn't rule him out yet.
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« Reply #28 on: July 19, 2008, 06:57:13 pm »
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Johnny, you mocked Sam Spade and me for being self-important enough to have our own threads, and then you created your own thread? Nice one! Tongue Just like “conservative” Republicans preaching fiscal discipline and then running up record deficits.

Your list is solid, but I see a couple of questionable rankings. Starting with Democrats, why are PA-11 and AZ-08 (home to two of the few blue-chip GOP recruits) ranked below MS-01 (Greg Davis still the GOP nominee) and CA-11 (Andal is embroiled in a nasty scandal and his fundraising is mediocre)? Gillibrand faces a self-funder who was once New York’s SOS (read: he already has decent name ID), so I’d move that race up to Lean Democratic. Finally, Bill Foster is running against Oberweis again. Bump that race way down your list. If Lauzen were the nominee, I could understand “Lean Democratic” for IL-14, but Oberweis has basically given up and Obama is a huge help there.

I mostly agree with your Pure Tossup rankings. You’re a little more sanguine about NM-01 than I am (I just don’t think the liberal Anglo has the juice to win over fickle independents and Hispanics). WA-08 is a little too high, but that’s no big deal.  AL-02 should be moved down for reasons  already outline by Spade, and I’d move NC-08 and NV-03 up, too. I just can’t see Jon “luckiest incumbent this side of Jim Gerlach” Porter in the same category as CA-04, which is hard-core conservative territory. If Charlie Brown couldn’t defeat Doolittle in 2006, how can he defeat conservative hero McClintock in a POTUS year?

Some other notes –you may be underestimating the competitiveness of CO-04, FL-24, and MI-09. The same enviros that took out Pombo last cycle are now after Musgrave.  The DCCC will spend big there and the Democrats have a top-notch candidate with no personal problems or voting record for GOP operatives to pick through. FL-24 is a scandal seat to watch and MI-09 is the other enviro target race. The LCV and Defenders of Wildlife are surprisingly adroit at politicking – when they target someone, they defeat that politician over 70% of the time.

Welcome to the Congressional prognosticating party, I hope you’ll drop by a couple more times before E-Day.

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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #29 on: July 19, 2008, 07:01:51 pm »
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Ive been going through some numbers for PA-HD-50 and that district is far more Democratic than I thought it was.  Although Kerry won it just 51%-48% in 2004, Gore won it 55%-42% and Dukakis won it 65%-34%!!  Hell, even Walter Mondale won it 61%-39%. 
« Last Edit: July 19, 2008, 07:03:29 pm by Mr.Phips »Logged
Mr.Phips
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« Reply #30 on: July 19, 2008, 07:04:40 pm »
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Johnny, you mocked Sam Spade and me for being self-important enough to have our own threads, and then you created your own thread? Nice one! Tongue Just like “conservative” Republicans preaching fiscal discipline and then running up record deficits.

Your list is solid, but I see a couple of questionable rankings. Starting with Democrats, why are PA-11 and AZ-08 (home to two of the few blue-chip GOP recruits) ranked below MS-01 (Greg Davis still the GOP nominee) and CA-11 (Andal is embroiled in a nasty scandal and his fundraising is mediocre)? Gillibrand faces a self-funder who was once New York’s SOS (read: he already has decent name ID), so I’d move that race up to Lean Democratic. Finally, Bill Foster is running against Oberweis again. Bump that race way down your list. If Lauzen were the nominee, I could understand “Lean Democratic” for IL-14, but Oberweis has basically given up and Obama is a huge help there.

I mostly agree with your Pure Tossup rankings. You’re a little more sanguine about NM-01 than I am (I just don’t think the liberal Anglo has the juice to win over fickle independents and Hispanics). WA-08 is a little too high, but that’s no big deal.  AL-02 should be moved down for reasons  already outline by Spade, and I’d move NC-08 and NV-03 up, too. I just can’t see Jon “luckiest incumbent this side of Jim Gerlach” Porter in the same category as CA-04, which is hard-core conservative territory. If Charlie Brown couldn’t defeat Doolittle in 2006, how can he defeat conservative hero McClintock in a POTUS year?

Some other notes –you may be underestimating the competitiveness of CO-04, FL-24, and MI-09. The same enviros that took out Pombo last cycle are now after Musgrave.  The DCCC will spend big there and the Democrats have a top-notch candidate with no personal problems or voting record for GOP operatives to pick through. FL-24 is a scandal seat to watch and MI-09 is the other enviro target race. The LCV and Defenders of Wildlife are surprisingly adroit at politicking – when they target someone, they defeat that politician over 70% of the time.

Welcome to the Congressional prognosticating party, I hope you’ll drop by a couple more times before E-Day.



I live in NY-20 and believe me, once the DCCC starts running ads showing Treadwell and Bush at the GOP convention in 2004, he will be toast. 
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MarkWarner08
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« Reply #31 on: July 19, 2008, 07:07:34 pm »
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Johnny, you mocked Sam Spade and me for being self-important enough to have our own threads, and then you created your own thread? Nice one! Tongue Just like “conservative” Republicans preaching fiscal discipline and then running up record deficits.

Your list is solid, but I see a couple of questionable rankings. Starting with Democrats, why are PA-11 and AZ-08 (home to two of the few blue-chip GOP recruits) ranked below MS-01 (Greg Davis still the GOP nominee) and CA-11 (Andal is embroiled in a nasty scandal and his fundraising is mediocre)? Gillibrand faces a self-funder who was once New York’s SOS (read: he already has decent name ID), so I’d move that race up to Lean Democratic. Finally, Bill Foster is running against Oberweis again. Bump that race way down your list. If Lauzen were the nominee, I could understand “Lean Democratic” for IL-14, but Oberweis has basically given up and Obama is a huge help there.

I mostly agree with your Pure Tossup rankings. You’re a little more sanguine about NM-01 than I am (I just don’t think the liberal Anglo has the juice to win over fickle independents and Hispanics). WA-08 is a little too high, but that’s no big deal.  AL-02 should be moved down for reasons  already outline by Spade, and I’d move NC-08 and NV-03 up, too. I just can’t see Jon “luckiest incumbent this side of Jim Gerlach” Porter in the same category as CA-04, which is hard-core conservative territory. If Charlie Brown couldn’t defeat Doolittle in 2006, how can he defeat conservative hero McClintock in a POTUS year?

Some other notes –you may be underestimating the competitiveness of CO-04, FL-24, and MI-09. The same enviros that took out Pombo last cycle are now after Musgrave.  The DCCC will spend big there and the Democrats have a top-notch candidate with no personal problems or voting record for GOP operatives to pick through. FL-24 is a scandal seat to watch and MI-09 is the other enviro target race. The LCV and Defenders of Wildlife are surprisingly adroit at politicking – when they target someone, they defeat that politician over 70% of the time.

Welcome to the Congressional prognosticating party, I hope you’ll drop by a couple more times before E-Day.



I live in NY-20 and believe me, once the DCCC starts running ads showing Treadwell and Bush at the GOP convention in 2004, he will be toast. 
I agree, but don't you think that it should be rated above MS-01? Also, let's hope the DCCC doesn't have to bail out Gillibrand. Doesn't she already have the largest CoH of any frosh?
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #32 on: July 19, 2008, 07:12:29 pm »
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Johnny, you mocked Sam Spade and me for being self-important enough to have our own threads, and then you created your own thread? Nice one! Tongue Just like “conservative” Republicans preaching fiscal discipline and then running up record deficits.

Your list is solid, but I see a couple of questionable rankings. Starting with Democrats, why are PA-11 and AZ-08 (home to two of the few blue-chip GOP recruits) ranked below MS-01 (Greg Davis still the GOP nominee) and CA-11 (Andal is embroiled in a nasty scandal and his fundraising is mediocre)? Gillibrand faces a self-funder who was once New York’s SOS (read: he already has decent name ID), so I’d move that race up to Lean Democratic. Finally, Bill Foster is running against Oberweis again. Bump that race way down your list. If Lauzen were the nominee, I could understand “Lean Democratic” for IL-14, but Oberweis has basically given up and Obama is a huge help there.

I mostly agree with your Pure Tossup rankings. You’re a little more sanguine about NM-01 than I am (I just don’t think the liberal Anglo has the juice to win over fickle independents and Hispanics). WA-08 is a little too high, but that’s no big deal.  AL-02 should be moved down for reasons  already outline by Spade, and I’d move NC-08 and NV-03 up, too. I just can’t see Jon “luckiest incumbent this side of Jim Gerlach” Porter in the same category as CA-04, which is hard-core conservative territory. If Charlie Brown couldn’t defeat Doolittle in 2006, how can he defeat conservative hero McClintock in a POTUS year?

Some other notes –you may be underestimating the competitiveness of CO-04, FL-24, and MI-09. The same enviros that took out Pombo last cycle are now after Musgrave.  The DCCC will spend big there and the Democrats have a top-notch candidate with no personal problems or voting record for GOP operatives to pick through. FL-24 is a scandal seat to watch and MI-09 is the other enviro target race. The LCV and Defenders of Wildlife are surprisingly adroit at politicking – when they target someone, they defeat that politician over 70% of the time.

Welcome to the Congressional prognosticating party, I hope you’ll drop by a couple more times before E-Day.



I live in NY-20 and believe me, once the DCCC starts running ads showing Treadwell and Bush at the GOP convention in 2004, he will be toast. 
I agree, but don't you think that it should be rated above MS-01? Also, let's hope the DCCC doesn't have to bail out Gillibrand. Doesn't she already have the largest CoH of any frosh?

It should be rated above MS-01, but would put it somewhere between lean and likely Dem.  Im pretty sure if polls show Treadwell very close or ahead, the DCCC would be on the air hammering him or would be forcing Gillibrand to do so. 
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #33 on: July 19, 2008, 07:14:21 pm »
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It looks like Bob Casey won here by about 64%-36% in the 2006 Senate race.  DeWeese ran about 11 points behind Casey. 

Which is horrible for DeWeese.

Off topic - Note how well Swann did - 45% of the vote.
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« Reply #34 on: July 20, 2008, 01:20:17 am »
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Johnny, you mocked Sam Spade and me for being self-important enough to have our own threads, and then you created your own thread? Nice one! Tongue Just like “conservative” Republicans preaching fiscal discipline and then running up record deficits.

Your list is solid, but I see a couple of questionable rankings. Starting with Democrats, why are PA-11 and AZ-08 (home to two of the few blue-chip GOP recruits) ranked below MS-01 (Greg Davis still the GOP nominee) and CA-11 (Andal is embroiled in a nasty scandal and his fundraising is mediocre)? Gillibrand faces a self-funder who was once New York’s SOS (read: he already has decent name ID), so I’d move that race up to Lean Democratic. Finally, Bill Foster is running against Oberweis again. Bump that race way down your list. If Lauzen were the nominee, I could understand “Lean Democratic” for IL-14, but Oberweis has basically given up and Obama is a huge help there.

I mostly agree with your Pure Tossup rankings. You’re a little more sanguine about NM-01 than I am (I just don’t think the liberal Anglo has the juice to win over fickle independents and Hispanics). WA-08 is a little too high, but that’s no big deal.  AL-02 should be moved down for reasons  already outline by Spade, and I’d move NC-08 and NV-03 up, too. I just can’t see Jon “luckiest incumbent this side of Jim Gerlach” Porter in the same category as CA-04, which is hard-core conservative territory. If Charlie Brown couldn’t defeat Doolittle in 2006, how can he defeat conservative hero McClintock in a POTUS year?

Some other notes –you may be underestimating the competitiveness of CO-04, FL-24, and MI-09. The same enviros that took out Pombo last cycle are now after Musgrave.  The DCCC will spend big there and the Democrats have a top-notch candidate with no personal problems or voting record for GOP operatives to pick through. FL-24 is a scandal seat to watch and MI-09 is the other enviro target race. The LCV and Defenders of Wildlife are surprisingly adroit at politicking – when they target someone, they defeat that politician over 70% of the time.

Welcome to the Congressional prognosticating party, I hope you’ll drop by a couple more times before E-Day.



I live in NY-20 and believe me, once the DCCC starts running ads showing Treadwell and Bush at the GOP convention in 2004, he will be toast. 
I agree, but don't you think that it should be rated above MS-01? Also, let's hope the DCCC doesn't have to bail out Gillibrand. Doesn't she already have the largest CoH of any frosh?

MS-01 is likely Dem. Davis raised like 10K since the special election. He has given up.
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #35 on: July 20, 2008, 07:02:40 am »
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Johnny, you mocked Sam Spade and me for being self-important enough to have our own threads, and then you created your own thread? Nice one! Tongue Just like “conservative” Republicans preaching fiscal discipline and then running up record deficits.

Your list is solid, but I see a couple of questionable rankings. Starting with Democrats, why are PA-11 and AZ-08 (home to two of the few blue-chip GOP recruits) ranked below MS-01 (Greg Davis still the GOP nominee) and CA-11 (Andal is embroiled in a nasty scandal and his fundraising is mediocre)? Gillibrand faces a self-funder who was once New York’s SOS (read: he already has decent name ID), so I’d move that race up to Lean Democratic. Finally, Bill Foster is running against Oberweis again. Bump that race way down your list. If Lauzen were the nominee, I could understand “Lean Democratic” for IL-14, but Oberweis has basically given up and Obama is a huge help there.

I mostly agree with your Pure Tossup rankings. You’re a little more sanguine about NM-01 than I am (I just don’t think the liberal Anglo has the juice to win over fickle independents and Hispanics). WA-08 is a little too high, but that’s no big deal.  AL-02 should be moved down for reasons  already outline by Spade, and I’d move NC-08 and NV-03 up, too. I just can’t see Jon “luckiest incumbent this side of Jim Gerlach” Porter in the same category as CA-04, which is hard-core conservative territory. If Charlie Brown couldn’t defeat Doolittle in 2006, how can he defeat conservative hero McClintock in a POTUS year?

Some other notes –you may be underestimating the competitiveness of CO-04, FL-24, and MI-09. The same enviros that took out Pombo last cycle are now after Musgrave.  The DCCC will spend big there and the Democrats have a top-notch candidate with no personal problems or voting record for GOP operatives to pick through. FL-24 is a scandal seat to watch and MI-09 is the other enviro target race. The LCV and Defenders of Wildlife are surprisingly adroit at politicking – when they target someone, they defeat that politician over 70% of the time.

Welcome to the Congressional prognosticating party, I hope you’ll drop by a couple more times before E-Day.

Thanks for your thoughts. I'm skeptical of Barletta's ability to win, but I think Kanjorski can lose if he's incompetent enough. Plus Kanjorski's got a lot more money. Tim Bee's lurching to the right, inexplicably, causing Jim Kolbe to drop his support. I don't think Sandy Treadwell is that strong a candidate outside of his pocketbook (Sec of State isn't elected in New York -- how many people actually know who that is? I couldn't tell you who Virginia's Secretary of the Commonwealth is). I agree that Foster is probably safer than lean D, but Oberweis still has more money than he is, so he's still investing more into his race than Greg Davis is into MS-01.

AL-02 and CA-04 are probably going to fall down the list eventually. For now, the Democratic candidates have more cash on hand, but that will probably change.

I generally don't think Republican incumbents are in much danger this time around, with a few exceptions like Walberg and Reichert. I don't think Robin Hayes is going to be caught off-guard this time, and I'd like to wait and see whether MI-09 or FL-24 gets any more competitive than just an opponent with strong fundraising. Musgrave also seems to be hard to beat.
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DownWithTheLeft
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« Reply #36 on: July 20, 2008, 08:00:19 am »
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Wow, NY-20 is much larger than I thought it was.  I vacationed in the northern section, very conservative, but those suburbs around Albany might be very liberal.  Anyone know the partisan breakdown?  BTW, there are some places in that district that are 4 hour drives apart from each other, pretty amazing for a state with congressional districts that last mere blocks.
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Gov. Christopher J. Christie
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« Reply #37 on: July 20, 2008, 10:02:03 am »
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The most Democrat part of the CD is Columbia county; the Democrat-voting parts of Rensselaer   are in the 21st district. Elsewhere, Saratoga Springs has a large Democrat vote but is usually outvoted by the rest of Saratoga county, the north of Dutchess county has quite a few Democrats and while the part of Otsego in the district is mostly Republican it's not without Democrats either. But this is a district that is "supposed" to be held by a Republican. And was obviously drawn for that purpose.
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DownWithTheLeft
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« Reply #38 on: July 20, 2008, 10:50:22 am »
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The most Democrat part of the CD is Columbia county; the Democrat-voting parts of Rensselaer   are in the 21st district. Elsewhere, Saratoga Springs has a large Democrat vote but is usually outvoted by the rest of Saratoga county, the north of Dutchess county has quite a few Democrats and while the part of Otsego in the district is mostly Republican it's not without Democrats either. But this is a district that is "supposed" to be held by a Republican. And was obviously drawn for that purpose.
Thank you

Never really thought of Saratoga as a Democratic area, would have picked the immediate suburbs of Albany if I had to guess.   Hopefully a GOP candidate can take it back in 2010
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« Reply #39 on: July 20, 2008, 09:32:01 pm »
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I have hunch that FL-24 will surprise. Feeney won only 59% against a complete lunatic in 2006, and he has been out raised this year. Furthermore, he's never been well-liked generally in Florida, and while it is a Republican district he is arguably both too far right and too abrasive to be secure.  He also has Abramoff baggage that makes him vulnerable to an October scandal dump.

I actually think he is in a very similar situation to Pombo last year. Republican district, but not overwelmingly so, incumbent with many enemies who fails to take any seriously, lots of scandals, interest groups that want the incumbent out etc.

And Kosmas is a stronger candidate than McNerney was by far.

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« Reply #40 on: August 07, 2008, 05:47:31 pm »
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CA-04 moved to Likely Republican from Leans Republican - Tom McClintock sucks, but hell, the district voted for Doolittle, and McClintock isn't even scandal-plagued.

MO-06 moved to Likely Republican from Republicans on the Horizon
MO-09 moved to Republicans on the Horizon from Likely Republican - Republicans wisely avoided nominating the Club for Growther, so MO-09 is more likely a lock. Meanwhile, Kay Barnes is winnowing down Graves' lead, but he's still the favorite.

NV-03 moved to Republican-Leaning Tossup from Lean Republican - Dina Titus is running a much better campaign than in 2006.

PA-11 moved to Lean Democratic from Democrats on the Horizon - If Kanjorski survives, he needs to be primaried in 2010.

TX-22 moved to Lean Republican from Republican-Leaning Tossup - Pete Olson's only deficiency was money, then he had a Bush fundraiser.
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« Reply #41 on: August 07, 2008, 06:17:41 pm »
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Watch List

OR-05 (open seat held by Darlene Hooley - D)
CT-05 (Chris Murphy - D)
TX-23 (Ciro Rodriguez - D)
NH-01 (Paul Hodes - D)


Likely Democratic

AZ-05 (Harry Mitchell - D)
GA-08 (Jim Marshall - D)
IN-09 (Baron Hill - D)
CA-11 (Jerry McNerney - D)
MS-01 (Travis Childers - D)
KY-03 (John Yarmuth - D)
NY-20 (Kirsten Gillibrand - D)
IL-14 (Bill Foster - D)


Lean Democratic

NY-13 (open seat held by Vito Fossella - R)
WI-08 (Steve Kagen - D)
AZ-08 (Gabrielle Giffords - D)
PA-11 (Paul Kanjorski - D)
AL-05 (open seat held by Bud Cramer - D)
NY-25 (open seat held by J.T. Walsh - R)




Democratic-Leaning Tossup

AZ-01 (open seat held by Rick Renzi - R)
VA-11 (open seat held by Tom Davis - R)
PA-04 (Jason Altmire - D)
IL-11 (open seat held by Jerry Weller - R)
NH-01 (Carol Shea-Porter - D)
PA-10 (Chris Carney - D)



Pure Tossup
NJ-03 (open seat held by Jim Saxton - R)
Slight Dem tilt line
OH-15 (open seat held by Deb Pryce - R)
KS-02 (Nancy Boyda - D)
NJ-07 (open seat held by Mike Ferguson - R)
AK-AL (Don Young - R)
slight GOP tilt line
OH-16 (open seat held by Ralph Regula - R)
MN-03 (open seat held by Jim Ramstad - R)
FL-16 (Tim Mahoney - D)

Republican-Leaning Tossup

MI-07 (Tim Walberg - R)
NV-03 (Jon Porter - R)
WA-08 (Dave Reichert - R)
LA-06 (Don Cazayoux - D)
TX-22 (Nick Lampson - D)

Lean Republican

AL-02 (open seat held by Terry Everett - R)
NC-08 (Robin Hayes - R)
NY-29 (Randy Kuhl - R)
NM-01 (open seat held by Heather Wilson - R)
CT-04 (Chris Shays - R)
IL-10 (Mark Kirk - R)

Likely Republican

NY-26 (open seat held by Tom Reynolds - R)
CO-04 (Marilyn Musgrave - R)
CA-04 (open seat held by John Doolittle - R)
LA-04 (open seat held by Jim McCrery - R)
MI-09 (Joe Knollenberg - R)
MO-06 (Sam Graves - R)
OH-01 (Steve Chabot - R)
FL-24 (Tom Feeney - R)



Watch List

OH-02 (Jean Schmidt - R)
MO-09 (open seat held by Kenny Hulshof - R)
WY-AL (open seat held by Barbara Cubin - R)
ID-01 (Bill Sali - R)
MD-01 (open seat held by Wayne Gilchrest - R)
NM-02 (open seat held by Steve Pearce - R)


I've ordered them (for example, I see Bill Foster in more danger than Harry Mitchell)
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« Reply #42 on: August 07, 2008, 10:50:11 pm »
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It looks like Bob Casey won here by about 64%-36% in the 2006 Senate race.  DeWeese ran about 11 points behind Casey. 

Which is horrible for DeWeese.

Off topic - Note how well Swann did - 45% of the vote.
More bad news for DeWeese:

http://www.politickerpa.com/wallyedgepa/1129/tally-board-deweese-resigning-leadership-postion
http://www.politicker.com/poll-voters-want-deweese-step-down-think-legislature-doing-poor-job
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #43 on: August 08, 2008, 12:07:20 am »
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It looks like Bob Casey won here by about 64%-36% in the 2006 Senate race.  DeWeese ran about 11 points behind Casey. 

Which is horrible for DeWeese.

Off topic - Note how well Swann did - 45% of the vote.
More bad news for DeWeese:

http://www.politickerpa.com/wallyedgepa/1129/tally-board-deweese-resigning-leadership-postion
http://www.politicker.com/poll-voters-want-deweese-step-down-think-legislature-doing-poor-job

Oh, believe me, I know. It's always something/someone new everyday.
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« Reply #44 on: August 08, 2008, 10:27:02 am »
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Ive been going through some numbers for PA-HD-50 and that district is far more Democratic than I thought it was.  Although Kerry won it just 51%-48% in 2004, Gore won it 55%-42% and Dukakis won it 65%-34%!!  Hell, even Walter Mondale won it 61%-39%. 

Its not surprising that going back to the 80's this district was Heavilly Democratic but since then the trend in Western PA has been toward the GOP. Swann did out perform his statewide showing in this area. On the US House scale The 4th district was won by both Swann and Santorum even while Hart was losing. Thats why I think Altmire is endanger and will lose in 2010 if not 2008.
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« Reply #45 on: August 08, 2008, 12:20:36 pm »
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Ive been going through some numbers for PA-HD-50 and that district is far more Democratic than I thought it was.  Although Kerry won it just 51%-48% in 2004, Gore won it 55%-42% and Dukakis won it 65%-34%!!  Hell, even Walter Mondale won it 61%-39%. 

Its not surprising that going back to the 80's this district was Heavilly Democratic but since then the trend in Western PA has been toward the GOP. Swann did out perform his statewide showing in this area. On the US House scale The 4th district was won by both Swann and Santorum even while Hart was losing. Thats why I think Altmire is endanger and will lose in 2010 if not 2008.

Casey won PA-04 55%-45% in 2006. 
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« Reply #46 on: August 09, 2008, 06:37:58 pm »
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Ive been going through some numbers for PA-HD-50 and that district is far more Democratic than I thought it was.  Although Kerry won it just 51%-48% in 2004, Gore won it 55%-42% and Dukakis won it 65%-34%!!  Hell, even Walter Mondale won it 61%-39%. 

Its not surprising that going back to the 80's this district was Heavilly Democratic but since then the trend in Western PA has been toward the GOP. Swann did out perform his statewide showing in this area. On the US House scale The 4th district was won by both Swann and Santorum even while Hart was losing. Thats why I think Altmire is endanger and will lose in 2010 if not 2008.

Casey won PA-04 55%-45% in 2006. 

Thats what you get when you trust second hand Info. I wish this site had CD based results for all the races including Senate. I knew Santorum performed better in that area then he did Statewide and he did by about 7 or 8. Thanks for those numbers?
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« Reply #47 on: August 09, 2008, 09:46:16 pm »
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Ive been going through some numbers for PA-HD-50 and that district is far more Democratic than I thought it was.  Although Kerry won it just 51%-48% in 2004, Gore won it 55%-42% and Dukakis won it 65%-34%!!  Hell, even Walter Mondale won it 61%-39%. 

Its not surprising that going back to the 80's this district was Heavilly Democratic but since then the trend in Western PA has been toward the GOP. Swann did out perform his statewide showing in this area. On the US House scale The 4th district was won by both Swann and Santorum even while Hart was losing. Thats why I think Altmire is endanger and will lose in 2010 if not 2008.

Casey won PA-04 55%-45% in 2006. 

Thats what you get when you trust second hand Info. I wish this site had CD based results for all the races including Senate. I knew Santorum performed better in that area then he did Statewide and he did by about 7 or 8. Thanks for those numbers?

There is no way Santorum got over 46% in this district.  Santorum got just 38% of the vote in Beaver county and 42% in Lawrence county.  As a whole, these two counties cast about 38% of the total district vote.  This would mean that Santorum had to win the rest of the district handily. 
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« Reply #48 on: August 09, 2008, 10:18:09 pm »
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Ive been going through some numbers for PA-HD-50 and that district is far more Democratic than I thought it was.  Although Kerry won it just 51%-48% in 2004, Gore won it 55%-42% and Dukakis won it 65%-34%!!  Hell, even Walter Mondale won it 61%-39%. 

Its not surprising that going back to the 80's this district was Heavilly Democratic but since then the trend in Western PA has been toward the GOP. Swann did out perform his statewide showing in this area. On the US House scale The 4th district was won by both Swann and Santorum even while Hart was losing. Thats why I think Altmire is endanger and will lose in 2010 if not 2008.

Casey won PA-04 55%-45% in 2006. 

Thats what you get when you trust second hand Info. I wish this site had CD based results for all the races including Senate. I knew Santorum performed better in that area then he did Statewide and he did by about 7 or 8. Thanks for those numbers?

There is no way Santorum got over 46% in this district.  Santorum got just 38% of the vote in Beaver county and 42% in Lawrence county.  As a whole, these two counties cast about 38% of the total district vote.  This would mean that Santorum had to win the rest of the district handily. 

Well at least he won Susquehanna County, were I was born, abeit 51%-48%. He got over 60% there in 2000.
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« Reply #49 on: August 09, 2008, 10:28:04 pm »
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Ive been going through some numbers for PA-HD-50 and that district is far more Democratic than I thought it was.  Although Kerry won it just 51%-48% in 2004, Gore won it 55%-42% and Dukakis won it 65%-34%!!  Hell, even Walter Mondale won it 61%-39%. 

Its not surprising that going back to the 80's this district was Heavilly Democratic but since then the trend in Western PA has been toward the GOP. Swann did out perform his statewide showing in this area. On the US House scale The 4th district was won by both Swann and Santorum even while Hart was losing. Thats why I think Altmire is endanger and will lose in 2010 if not 2008.

Casey won PA-04 55%-45% in 2006. 

Thats what you get when you trust second hand Info. I wish this site had CD based results for all the races including Senate. I knew Santorum performed better in that area then he did Statewide and he did by about 7 or 8. Thanks for those numbers?

There is no way Santorum got over 46% in this district.  Santorum got just 38% of the vote in Beaver county and 42% in Lawrence county.  As a whole, these two counties cast about 38% of the total district vote.  This would mean that Santorum had to win the rest of the district handily. 

Well at least he won Susquehanna County, were I was born, abeit 51%-48%. He got over 60% there in 2000.

Susquehanna is in PA-10.
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