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Author Topic: JLT's House Predictions: Final Version, No For Real This Time  (Read 7630 times)
JohnnyLongtorso
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« on: July 19, 2008, 01:48:24 pm »
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So there.

Likely Democratic

NY-13 (open seat held by Vito Fossella - R)
NY-25 (open seat held by J.T. Walsh - R)
PA-10 (Chris Carney - D)

Lean Democratic

AL-05 (open seat held by Bud Cramer - D)
AZ-01 (open seat held by Rick Renzi - R)
FL-24 (Tom Feeney - R)
IL-11 (open seat held by Jerry Weller - R)
OH-15 (open seat held by Deb Pryce - R)
OH-16 (open seat held by Ralph Regula - R)
VA-11 (open seat held by Tom Davis - R)

Democratic-Leaning Tossup

AK-AL (Don Young - R)
CO-04 (Marilyn Musgrave - R)
GA-08 (Jim Marshall - D)
KS-02 (Nancy Boyda - D)
LA-06 (Don Cazayoux - D)
MI-07 (Tim Walberg - R)
MI-09 (Joe Knollenberg - R)
NH-01 (Carol Shea-Porter - D)
NM-01 (open seat held by Heather Wilson - R)
NC-08 (Robin Hayes - R)
NV-03 (Jon Porter - R)
PA-03 (Phil English - R)
PA-12 (Jack Murtha - D)

Pure Tossup

CA-04 (open seat held by John Doolittle - R)
CT-04 (Chris Shays - R)
FL-08 (Ric Keller - R)
FL-21 (Lincoln Diaz-Balart - R)
ID-01 (Bill Sali - R)
IL-10 (Mark Kirk - R)
MN-03 (open seat held by Jim Ramstad - R)
MN-06 (Michele Bachmann - R)
NJ-03 (open seat held by Jim Saxton - R)
NM-02 (open seat held by Steve Pearce - R)
NY-29 (Randy Kuhl - R)
OH-01 (Steve Chabot - R)
WA-08 (Dave Reichert - R)

Republican-Leaning Tossup

AL-02 (open seat held by Terry Everett - R)
FL-25 (Mario Diaz-Balart - R)
MD-01 (open seat held by Wayne Gilchrest - R)
NJ-07 (open seat held by Mike Ferguson - R)
PA-11 (Paul Kanjorski - D)
TX-22 (Nick Lampson - D)

Lean Republican

IN-03 (Mark Souder - R)
MO-09 (open seat held by Kenny Hulshof - R)
NE-02 (Lee Terry - R)
VA-02 (Thelma Drake - R)
VA-05 (Virgil Goode - R)
WY-AL (open seat held by Barbara Cubin - R)

Likely Republican

AZ-03 (John Shadegg - R)
FL-16 (Tim Mahoney - D)
IA-04 (Tom Latham - R)
KY-02 (open seat held by Ron Lewis - R)
SC-01 (Henry Brown - R)


Democratic Pickups:

1. NY-13 (open seat held by Vito Fossella - R)
2. NY-25 (open seat held by J.T. Walsh - R)
3. AZ-01 (open seat held by Rick Renzi - R)
4. OH-16 (open seat held by Ralph Regula - R)
5. FL-24 (Tom Feeney - R)
6. VA-11 (open seat held by Tom Davis - R)
7. IL-11 (open seat held by Jerry Weller - R)
8. OH-15 (open seat held by Deb Pryce - R)
9. MI-07 (Tim Walberg - R)
10. NC-08 (Robin Hayes - R)
11. AK-AL (Don Young - R)
12. CO-04 (Marilyn Musgrave - R)
13. MI-09 (Joe Knollenberg - R)
14. NM-01 (open seat held by Heather Wilson - R)
15. NV-03 (Jon Porter - R)
16. PA-03 (Phil English - R)
17. NJ-03 (open seat held by Jim Saxton - R)
18. NY-29 (Randy Kuhl - R)
19. FL-08 (Ric Keller - R)
20. CT-04 (Chris Shays - R)
21. MN-06 (Michele Bachmann - R)
22. NM-02 (open seat held by Steve Pearce - R)
23. IL-10 (Mark Kirk - R)
24. CA-04 (open seat held by John Doolittle - R)
25. MN-03 (open seat held by Jim Ramstad - R)
26. OH-01 (Steve Chabot - R)
27. ID-01 (Bill Sali - R)
28. FL-21 (Lincoln Diaz-Balart - R)

Possible Democratic Pickups:

29. WA-08 (Dave Reichert - R)
30. FL-25 (Mario Diaz-Balart - R)
31. NJ-07 (open seat held by Mike Ferguson - R)
32. AL-02 (open seat held by Terry Everett - R)
33. MD-01 (open seat held by Wayne Gilchrest - R)
34. MO-09 (open seat held by Kenny Hulshof - R)
35. VA-05 (Virgil Goode - R)
36. NE-02 (Lee Terry - R)
37. VA-02 (Thelma Drake - R)
38. WY-AL (open seat held by Barbara Cubin - R)
39. IN-03 (Mark Souder - R)
40. KY-02 (open seat held by Ron Lewis - R)
41. AZ-03 (John Shadegg - R)
42. IA-04 (Tom Latham - R)
43. SC-01 (Henry Brown - R)

Republican Pickups:

1. FL-16 (Tim Mahoney - D)
2. PA-11 (Paul Kanjorski - D)
3. TX-22 (Nick Lampson - D)

Possible Republican Pickups:

4. NH-01 (Carol Shea-Porter - D)
5. GA-08 (Jim Marshall - D)
6. PA-12 (Jack Murtha - D)
7. KS-02 (Nancy Boyda - D)
8. LA-06 (Don Cazayoux - D)
9. AL-05 (open seat held by Bud Cramer - D)
10. PA-10 (Chris Carney - D)
« Last Edit: November 03, 2008, 10:01:03 pm by JohnnyLongtorso »Logged
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« Reply #1 on: July 19, 2008, 01:52:52 pm »
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You forgot nancy boydas seat.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #2 on: July 19, 2008, 02:57:29 pm »
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So there. I've revised my earlier list to include more categories, and here it is:

Democrats On the Horizon

AZ-05 (Harry Mitchell - D)
AZ-08 (Gabrielle Giffords - D)
CT-05 (Chris Murphy - D)
NY-20 (Kirsten Gillibrand - D)
PA-11 (Paul Kanjorski - D)
TX-23 (Ciro Rodriguez - D)

Likely Democratic

CA-11 (Jerry McNerney - D)
GA-08 (Jim Marshall - D)
IN-09 (Baron Hill - D)
KY-03 (John Yarmuth - D)
MS-01 (Travis Childers - D)

Lean Democratic

AL-05 (open seat held by Bud Cramer - D)
AZ-01 (open seat held by Rick Renzi - R)
IL-14 (Bill Foster - D)
NJ-03 (open seat held by Jim Saxton - R)
NY-13 (open seat held by Vito Fossella - R)
NY-25 (open seat held by J.T. Walsh - R)

OR-05 (open seat held by Darlene Hooley - D)
PA-04 (Jason Altmire - D)
WI-08 (Steve Kagen - D)

Democratic-Leaning Tossup

IL-11 (open seat held by Jerry Weller - R)
NH-01 (Carol Shea-Porter - D)
PA-10 (Chris Carney - D)
VA-11 (open seat held by Tom Davis - R)

Pure Tossup

FL-16 (Tim Mahoney - D)
KS-02 (Nancy Boyda - D)
OH-15 (open seat held by Deb Pryce - R)
OH-16 (open seat held by Ralph Regula - R)
MN-03 (open seat held by Jim Ramstad - R)
NJ-07 (open seat held by Scott Ferguson - R)

Republican-Leaning Tossup

LA-06 (Don Cazayoux - D)
MI-07 (Tim Walberg - R)
NM-01 (open seat held by Heather Wilson - R)
TX-22 (Nick Lampson - D)
WA-08 (Dave Reichert - R)

Lean Republican

AL-02 (open seat held by Terry Everett - R)
AK-AL (Don Young - R)
CA-04 (open seat held by John Doolittle - R)
CT-04 (Chris Shays - R)
IL-10 (Mark Kirk - R)
NC-08 (Robin Hayes - R)
NV-03 (Jon Porter - R)
NY-29 (Randy Kuhl - R)

Likely Republican

CO-04 (Marilyn Musgrave - R)
FL-24 (Tom Feeney - R)
LA-04 (open seat held by Jim McCrery - R)
MI-09 (Joe Knollenberg - R)
MO-09 (open seat held by Kenny Hulshof - R)
NM-02 (open seat held by Steve Pearce - R)
NY-26 (open seat held by Tom Reynolds - R)
OH-01 (Steve Chabot - R)

Republicans On the Horizon

ID-01 (Bill Sali - R)
KY-02 (open seat held by Ron Lewis - R)
MD-01 (open seat held by Wayne Gilchrest - R)
MO-06 (Sam Graves - R)
OH-02 (Jean Schmidt - R)
WY-AL (open seat held by Barbara Cubin - R)

Add your own list (as long as you're not one of the aforementioned two who need their own threads), or tell me why I'm such a terrible partisan hack.

You put Chris Murphy that high?  His district actually went for John Kerry and is likely to go big for Obama.  Not to mention the fact that he won by 10 points over a popular long time incumbent. 
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DownWithTheLeft
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« Reply #3 on: July 19, 2008, 02:59:22 pm »
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The open seat in NJ-7 is held by Mike Ferguson, Scott Garrett is the incumbent in NJ-5
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #4 on: July 19, 2008, 03:14:21 pm »
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You forgot nancy boydas seat.

She's under pure tossup (KS-02).

You put Chris Murphy that high?  His district actually went for John Kerry and is likely to go big for Obama.  Not to mention the fact that he won by 10 points over a popular long time incumbent. 

It's a 50-50 district, and what's her face self-destructed with those ridiculous ads. I don't expect it to be seriously competitive, but Cappiello is raising some serious dough.

Also, thanks for the correction of the retiring Mr. Ferguson's name.
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« Reply #5 on: July 19, 2008, 05:14:15 pm »
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I'd still put PA-6 at least on the horizon.  If we had our act together there with Mike Gerber or Andy Dinniman, the seat would be a pure Tossup, if not lean Dem.
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« Reply #6 on: July 19, 2008, 05:20:41 pm »
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I'd still put PA-6 at least on the horizon.  If we had our act together there with Mike Gerber or Andy Dinniman, the seat would be a pure Tossup, if not lean Dem.

Dinniman - Sure. Toss up/lean Dem

Gerber - Don't be so sure about that.

PA 6 is basically done for you guys. Gerlach has weathered every major storm. Giving him a joke opponent in 2008 seals the deal.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #7 on: July 19, 2008, 05:27:59 pm »
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I'd still put PA-6 at least on the horizon.  If we had our act together there with Mike Gerber or Andy Dinniman, the seat would be a pure Tossup, if not lean Dem.

Dinniman - Sure. Toss up/lean Dem

Gerber - Don't be so sure about that.

PA 6 is basically done for you guys. Gerlach has weathered every major storm. Giving him a joke opponent in 2008 seals the deal.

But running Dinniman would likely cost Democrats his Senate seat. 
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #8 on: July 19, 2008, 05:30:03 pm »
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I'd still put PA-6 at least on the horizon.  If we had our act together there with Mike Gerber or Andy Dinniman, the seat would be a pure Tossup, if not lean Dem.

Dinniman - Sure. Toss up/lean Dem

Gerber - Don't be so sure about that.

PA 6 is basically done for you guys. Gerlach has weathered every major storm. Giving him a joke opponent in 2008 seals the deal.

I agree with Phil. Don't worry, it won't happen again.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #9 on: July 19, 2008, 05:30:56 pm »
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I'd still put PA-6 at least on the horizon.  If we had our act together there with Mike Gerber or Andy Dinniman, the seat would be a pure Tossup, if not lean Dem.

Dinniman - Sure. Toss up/lean Dem

Gerber - Don't be so sure about that.

PA 6 is basically done for you guys. Gerlach has weathered every major storm. Giving him a joke opponent in 2008 seals the deal.

I agree with Phil. Don't worry, it won't happen again.

Id pretty much say that Roggio is on par with who Republicans put up in PA-07 and PA-08.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #10 on: July 19, 2008, 05:33:44 pm »
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I'd still put PA-6 at least on the horizon.  If we had our act together there with Mike Gerber or Andy Dinniman, the seat would be a pure Tossup, if not lean Dem.

Dinniman - Sure. Toss up/lean Dem

Gerber - Don't be so sure about that.

PA 6 is basically done for you guys. Gerlach has weathered every major storm. Giving him a joke opponent in 2008 seals the deal.

But running Dinniman would likely cost Democrats his Senate seat. 

Absolutely but what do you care? I wonder how much the state Dems would care anyway. They're at such a disadvantage in that chamber anyway.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #11 on: July 19, 2008, 05:40:45 pm »
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I'd still put PA-6 at least on the horizon.  If we had our act together there with Mike Gerber or Andy Dinniman, the seat would be a pure Tossup, if not lean Dem.

Dinniman - Sure. Toss up/lean Dem

Gerber - Don't be so sure about that.

PA 6 is basically done for you guys. Gerlach has weathered every major storm. Giving him a joke opponent in 2008 seals the deal.

But running Dinniman would likely cost Democrats his Senate seat. 

Absolutely but what do you care? I wonder how much the state Dems would care anyway. They're at such a disadvantage in that chamber anyway.

They cannot afford to be losing seats in the Senate when they are already down 21-29. 
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #12 on: July 19, 2008, 05:42:17 pm »
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I'd still put PA-6 at least on the horizon.  If we had our act together there with Mike Gerber or Andy Dinniman, the seat would be a pure Tossup, if not lean Dem.

Dinniman - Sure. Toss up/lean Dem

Gerber - Don't be so sure about that.

PA 6 is basically done for you guys. Gerlach has weathered every major storm. Giving him a joke opponent in 2008 seals the deal.

But running Dinniman would likely cost Democrats his Senate seat. 

Absolutely but what do you care? I wonder how much the state Dems would care anyway. They're at such a disadvantage in that chamber anyway.

They cannot afford to be losing seats in the Senate when they are already down 21-29. 

It's only a matter of time before they lose that one (and others) anyway.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #13 on: July 19, 2008, 05:43:10 pm »
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I'd still put PA-6 at least on the horizon.  If we had our act together there with Mike Gerber or Andy Dinniman, the seat would be a pure Tossup, if not lean Dem.

Dinniman - Sure. Toss up/lean Dem

Gerber - Don't be so sure about that.

PA 6 is basically done for you guys. Gerlach has weathered every major storm. Giving him a joke opponent in 2008 seals the deal.

But running Dinniman would likely cost Democrats his Senate seat. 

Absolutely but what do you care? I wonder how much the state Dems would care anyway. They're at such a disadvantage in that chamber anyway.

They cannot afford to be losing seats in the Senate when they are already down 21-29. 

It's only a matter of time before they lose that one (and others) anyway.

I dont think they could possibly go any lower.  Especially considering all of the Dem leaning districts Republicans hold in the Philly suburbs. 
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #14 on: July 19, 2008, 05:45:38 pm »
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I dont think they could possibly go any lower.  Especially considering all of the Dem leaning districts Republicans hold in the Philly suburbs. 

They're probably going to lose one out west due to Bonusgate. One of the guys involved is a State Representative running for an open Democratic seat. He refuses to step down as a candidate.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #15 on: July 19, 2008, 05:47:52 pm »
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I dont think they could possibly go any lower.  Especially considering all of the Dem leaning districts Republicans hold in the Philly suburbs. 

They're probably going to lose one out west due to Bonusgate. One of the guys involved is a State Representative running for an open Democratic seat. He refuses to step down as a candidate.

Is this the Beaver county based seat?  I have a hard time seeing how a Republican gets elected in a Democratic stronghold like Beaver County and dont say Melissa Hart, because her district included very Republican areas in Butler county to balance the district off. 
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #16 on: July 19, 2008, 05:51:05 pm »
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I dont think they could possibly go any lower.  Especially considering all of the Dem leaning districts Republicans hold in the Philly suburbs. 

They're probably going to lose one out west due to Bonusgate. One of the guys involved is a State Representative running for an open Democratic seat. He refuses to step down as a candidate.

Is this the Beaver county based seat?  I have a hard time seeing how a Republican gets elected in a Democratic stronghold like Beaver County and dont say Melissa Hart, because her district included very Republican areas in Butler county to balance the district off. 

This scandals are a big deal out there. The Democratic leader of the House is in a very strong Democratic seat. He almost lost last time. He's probably going to lose this time. The Democratic Whip (who is also involved with Bonusgate) lost last time because of the pay raise. His seat was also a strong Democratic seat.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #17 on: July 19, 2008, 05:53:36 pm »
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I dont think they could possibly go any lower.  Especially considering all of the Dem leaning districts Republicans hold in the Philly suburbs. 

They're probably going to lose one out west due to Bonusgate. One of the guys involved is a State Representative running for an open Democratic seat. He refuses to step down as a candidate.

Is this the Beaver county based seat?  I have a hard time seeing how a Republican gets elected in a Democratic stronghold like Beaver County and dont say Melissa Hart, because her district included very Republican areas in Butler county to balance the district off. 

This scandals are a big deal out there. The Democratic leader of the House is in a very strong Democratic seat. He almost lost last time. He's probably going to lose this time. The Democratic Whip (who is also involved with Bonusgate) lost last time because of the pay raise. His seat was also a strong Democratic seat.

Where were and are these seats?  Which counties?
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Comrade Sibboleth
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« Reply #18 on: July 19, 2008, 05:56:40 pm »
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Beaver showed in 2006 that it is more than happy to throw out dodgy Democrats. And Veon's former district is more Democratic than the county as whole (and looks very like an incumbent-protection gerrymander as well).
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« Reply #19 on: July 19, 2008, 05:57:53 pm »
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Where were and are these seats?  Which counties?

Veon (lost in 2006) - 14th district - Beaver county

DeWeese - 50th district - Fayette, Greene and Washington counties
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #20 on: July 19, 2008, 06:03:14 pm »
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Beaver showed in 2006 that it is more than happy to throw out dodgy Democrats. And Veon's former district is more Democratic than the county as whole (and looks very like an incumbent-protection gerrymander as well).

Exactly and Marshall won by about eight points. Now who knows if he'll lose this year but it just goes to show you that Democratic candidates involved in scandal don't always find a way to win in these areas.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #21 on: July 19, 2008, 06:19:59 pm »
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Where were and are these seats?  Which counties?

Veon (lost in 2006) - 14th district - Beaver county

DeWeese - 50th district - Fayette, Greene and Washington counties

Are Democrats likely to get back the 14th in a Presidential year or did they fumble this one as well?
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« Reply #22 on: July 19, 2008, 06:23:12 pm »
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Yes, Scandal is normally detrimental to campaigns unless it's one in San Francisco.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #23 on: July 19, 2008, 06:24:04 pm »
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Where were and are these seats?  Which counties?

Veon (lost in 2006) - 14th district - Beaver county

DeWeese - 50th district - Fayette, Greene and Washington counties

Are Democrats likely to get back the 14th in a Presidential year or did they fumble this one as well?

That's the one I referenced in my post responding to Al. Everyone believed that Marshall would be gone after one term; that the voters just wanted to be rid of Veon and would wait two years for another Democrat. I don't know the state of Marshall's race though. I'll try to find out.

DeWeese is going to lose if he stays around until November. There are calls for his resignation as leader. If he did that, I bet he'd just leave the House as well. If he sticks around, I don't see how he wins. DeWeese was unopposed in his primary and still had to spend hundreds of thousands. Why? He needed to win back the confidence of Democrats. It didn't work that well. 25% of Democrats wrote in his GOP opponent (the same guy from 2006) against DeWeese.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #24 on: July 19, 2008, 06:26:58 pm »
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Where were and are these seats?  Which counties?

Veon (lost in 2006) - 14th district - Beaver county

DeWeese - 50th district - Fayette, Greene and Washington counties

Are Democrats likely to get back the 14th in a Presidential year or did they fumble this one as well?

That's the one I referenced in my post responding to Al. Everyone believed that Marshall would be gone after one term; that the voters just wanted to be rid of Veon and would wait two years for another Democrat. I don't know the state of Marshall's race though. I'll try to find out.

DeWeese is going to lose if he stays around until November. There are calls for his resignation as leader. If he did that, I bet he'd just leave the House as well. If he sticks around, I don't see how he wins. DeWeese was unopposed in his primary and still had to spend hundreds of thousands. Why? He needed to win back the confidence of Democrats. It didn't work that well. 25% of Democrats wrote in his GOP opponent (the same guy from 2006) against DeWeese.

It looks as if the voter registration in that district is so Democratic that DeWeese could lose 25% of Dems and still win, but its unlikely. 
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