JLT's House Predictions: Final Version, No For Real This Time

[Mr.Phips]

So there. I've revised my earlier list to include more categories, and here it is:

Democrats On the Horizon

AZ-05 (Harry Mitchell - D)
AZ-08 (Gabrielle Giffords - D)
CT-05 (Chris Murphy - D)
NY-20 (Kirsten Gillibrand - D)
PA-11 (Paul Kanjorski - D)
TX-23 (Ciro Rodriguez - D)

Likely Democratic

CA-11 (Jerry McNerney - D)
GA-08 (Jim Marshall - D)
IN-09 (Baron Hill - D)
KY-03 (John Yarmuth - D)
MS-01 (Travis Childers - D)

Lean Democratic

AL-05 (open seat held by Bud Cramer - D)
AZ-01 (open seat held by Rick Renzi - R)
IL-14 (Bill Foster - D)
NJ-03 (open seat held by Jim Saxton - R)
NY-13 (open seat held by Vito Fossella - R)
NY-25 (open seat held by J.T. Walsh - R)
OR-05 (open seat held by Darlene Hooley - D)
PA-04 (Jason Altmire - D)
WI-08 (Steve Kagen - D)

Democratic-Leaning Tossup

IL-11 (open seat held by Jerry Weller - R)
NH-01 (Carol Shea-Porter - D)
PA-10 (Chris Carney - D)
VA-11 (open seat held by Tom Davis - R)

Pure Tossup

FL-16 (Tim Mahoney - D)
KS-02 (Nancy Boyda - D)
OH-15 (open seat held by Deb Pryce - R)
OH-16 (open seat held by Ralph Regula - R)
MN-03 (open seat held by Jim Ramstad - R)
NJ-07 (open seat held by Scott Ferguson - R)

Republican-Leaning Tossup

LA-06 (Don Cazayoux - D)
MI-07 (Tim Walberg - R)
NM-01 (open seat held by Heather Wilson - R)
TX-22 (Nick Lampson - D)
WA-08 (Dave Reichert - R)

Lean Republican

AL-02 (open seat held by Terry Everett - R)
AK-AL (Don Young - R)
CA-04 (open seat held by John Doolittle - R)
CT-04 (Chris Shays - R)
IL-10 (Mark Kirk - R)
NC-08 (Robin Hayes - R)
NV-03 (Jon Porter - R)
NY-29 (Randy Kuhl - R)

Likely Republican

CO-04 (Marilyn Musgrave - R)
FL-24 (Tom Feeney - R)
LA-04 (open seat held by Jim McCrery - R)
MI-09 (Joe Knollenberg - R)
MO-09 (open seat held by Kenny Hulshof - R)
NM-02 (open seat held by Steve Pearce - R)
NY-26 (open seat held by Tom Reynolds - R)
OH-01 (Steve Chabot - R)

Republicans On the Horizon

ID-01 (Bill Sali - R)
KY-02 (open seat held by Ron Lewis - R)
MD-01 (open seat held by Wayne Gilchrest - R)
MO-06 (Sam Graves - R)
OH-02 (Jean Schmidt - R)
WY-AL (open seat held by Barbara Cubin - R)

Add your own list (as long as you're not one of the aforementioned two who need their own threads), or tell me why I'm such a terrible partisan hack.

You put Chris Murphy that high?  His district actually went for John Kerry and is likely to go big for Obama.  Not to mention the fact that he won by 10 points over a popular long time incumbent. 

[Mr.Phips]

I'd still put PA-6 at least on the horizon.  If we had our act together there with Mike Gerber or Andy Dinniman, the seat would be a pure Tossup, if not lean Dem.

Dinniman - Sure. Toss up/lean Dem

Gerber - Don't be so sure about that.

PA 6 is basically done for you guys. Gerlach has weathered every major storm. Giving him a joke opponent in 2008 seals the deal.

But running Dinniman would likely cost Democrats his Senate seat. 

[Mr.Phips]

I'd still put PA-6 at least on the horizon.  If we had our act together there with Mike Gerber or Andy Dinniman, the seat would be a pure Tossup, if not lean Dem.

Dinniman - Sure. Toss up/lean Dem

Gerber - Don't be so sure about that.

PA 6 is basically done for you guys. Gerlach has weathered every major storm. Giving him a joke opponent in 2008 seals the deal.

I agree with Phil. Don't worry, it won't happen again.

Id pretty much say that Roggio is on par with who Republicans put up in PA-07 and PA-08.

[Mr.Phips]

I'd still put PA-6 at least on the horizon.  If we had our act together there with Mike Gerber or Andy Dinniman, the seat would be a pure Tossup, if not lean Dem.

Dinniman - Sure. Toss up/lean Dem

Gerber - Don't be so sure about that.

PA 6 is basically done for you guys. Gerlach has weathered every major storm. Giving him a joke opponent in 2008 seals the deal.

But running Dinniman would likely cost Democrats his Senate seat. 

Absolutely but what do you care? I wonder how much the state Dems would care anyway. They're at such a disadvantage in that chamber anyway.

They cannot afford to be losing seats in the Senate when they are already down 21-29. 

[Mr.Phips]

I'd still put PA-6 at least on the horizon.  If we had our act together there with Mike Gerber or Andy Dinniman, the seat would be a pure Tossup, if not lean Dem.

Dinniman - Sure. Toss up/lean Dem

Gerber - Don't be so sure about that.

PA 6 is basically done for you guys. Gerlach has weathered every major storm. Giving him a joke opponent in 2008 seals the deal.

But running Dinniman would likely cost Democrats his Senate seat. 

Absolutely but what do you care? I wonder how much the state Dems would care anyway. They're at such a disadvantage in that chamber anyway.

They cannot afford to be losing seats in the Senate when they are already down 21-29. 

It's only a matter of time before they lose that one (and others) anyway.

I dont think they could possibly go any lower.  Especially considering all of the Dem leaning districts Republicans hold in the Philly suburbs. 

[Mr.Phips]

I dont think they could possibly go any lower.  Especially considering all of the Dem leaning districts Republicans hold in the Philly suburbs. 

They're probably going to lose one out west due to Bonusgate. One of the guys involved is a State Representative running for an open Democratic seat. He refuses to step down as a candidate.

Is this the Beaver county based seat?  I have a hard time seeing how a Republican gets elected in a Democratic stronghold like Beaver County and dont say Melissa Hart, because her district included very Republican areas in Butler county to balance the district off. 

[Mr.Phips]

I dont think they could possibly go any lower.  Especially considering all of the Dem leaning districts Republicans hold in the Philly suburbs. 

They're probably going to lose one out west due to Bonusgate. One of the guys involved is a State Representative running for an open Democratic seat. He refuses to step down as a candidate.

Is this the Beaver county based seat?  I have a hard time seeing how a Republican gets elected in a Democratic stronghold like Beaver County and dont say Melissa Hart, because her district included very Republican areas in Butler county to balance the district off. 

This scandals are a big deal out there. The Democratic leader of the House is in a very strong Democratic seat. He almost lost last time. He's probably going to lose this time. The Democratic Whip (who is also involved with Bonusgate) lost last time because of the pay raise. His seat was also a strong Democratic seat.

Where were and are these seats?  Which counties?

[Mr.Phips]

Where were and are these seats?  Which counties?

Veon (lost in 2006) - 14th district - Beaver county

DeWeese - 50th district - Fayette, Greene and Washington counties

Are Democrats likely to get back the 14th in a Presidential year or did they fumble this one as well?

[Mr.Phips]

Where were and are these seats?  Which counties?

Veon (lost in 2006) - 14th district - Beaver county

DeWeese - 50th district - Fayette, Greene and Washington counties

Are Democrats likely to get back the 14th in a Presidential year or did they fumble this one as well?

That's the one I referenced in my post responding to Al. Everyone believed that Marshall would be gone after one term; that the voters just wanted to be rid of Veon and would wait two years for another Democrat. I don't know the state of Marshall's race though. I'll try to find out.

DeWeese is going to lose if he stays around until November. There are calls for his resignation as leader. If he did that, I bet he'd just leave the House as well. If he sticks around, I don't see how he wins. DeWeese was unopposed in his primary and still had to spend hundreds of thousands. Why? He needed to win back the confidence of Democrats. It didn't work that well. 25% of Democrats wrote in his GOP opponent (the same guy from 2006) against DeWeese.

It looks as if the voter registration in that district is so Democratic that DeWeese could lose 25% of Dems and still win, but its unlikely. 

[Mr.Phips]

Where were and are these seats?  Which counties?

Veon (lost in 2006) - 14th district - Beaver county

DeWeese - 50th district - Fayette, Greene and Washington counties

Are Democrats likely to get back the 14th in a Presidential year or did they fumble this one as well?

That's the one I referenced in my post responding to Al. Everyone believed that Marshall would be gone after one term; that the voters just wanted to be rid of Veon and would wait two years for another Democrat. I don't know the state of Marshall's race though. I'll try to find out.

DeWeese is going to lose if he stays around until November. There are calls for his resignation as leader. If he did that, I bet he'd just leave the House as well. If he sticks around, I don't see how he wins. DeWeese was unopposed in his primary and still had to spend hundreds of thousands. Why? He needed to win back the confidence of Democrats. It didn't work that well. 25% of Democrats wrote in his GOP opponent (the same guy from 2006) against DeWeese.

It looks as if the voter registration in that district is so Democratic that DeWeese could lose 25% of Dems and still win, but its unlikely. 

He's in a lot more trouble than he was in 2006. He only won by six points in 2006. He's done.

It looks like Bob Casey won here by about 64%-36% in the 2006 Senate race.  DeWeese ran about 11 points behind Casey. 

[Mr.Phips]

Ive been going through some numbers for PA-HD-50 and that district is far more Democratic than I thought it was.  Although Kerry won it just 51%-48% in 2004, Gore won it 55%-42% and Dukakis won it 65%-34%!!  Hell, even Walter Mondale won it 61%-39%. 

[Mr.Phips]

Johnny, you mocked Sam Spade and me for being self-important enough to have our own threads, and then you created your own thread? Nice one! Just like “conservative” Republicans preaching fiscal discipline and then running up record deficits.

Your list is solid, but I see a couple of questionable rankings. Starting with Democrats, why are PA-11 and AZ-08 (home to two of the few blue-chip GOP recruits) ranked below MS-01 (Greg Davis still the GOP nominee) and CA-11 (Andal is embroiled in a nasty scandal and his fundraising is mediocre)? Gillibrand faces a self-funder who was once New York’s SOS (read: he already has decent name ID), so I’d move that race up to Lean Democratic. Finally, Bill Foster is running against Oberweis again. Bump that race way down your list. If Lauzen were the nominee, I could understand “Lean Democratic” for IL-14, but Oberweis has basically given up and Obama is a huge help there.

I mostly agree with your Pure Tossup rankings. You’re a little more sanguine about NM-01 than I am (I just don’t think the liberal Anglo has the juice to win over fickle independents and Hispanics). WA-08 is a little too high, but that’s no big deal.  AL-02 should be moved down for reasons  already outline by Spade, and I’d move NC-08 and NV-03 up, too. I just can’t see Jon “luckiest incumbent this side of Jim Gerlach” Porter in the same category as CA-04, which is hard-core conservative territory. If Charlie Brown couldn’t defeat Doolittle in 2006, how can he defeat conservative hero McClintock in a POTUS year?

Some other notes –you may be underestimating the competitiveness of CO-04, FL-24, and MI-09. The same enviros that took out Pombo last cycle are now after Musgrave.  The DCCC will spend big there and the Democrats have a top-notch candidate with no personal problems or voting record for GOP operatives to pick through. FL-24 is a scandal seat to watch and MI-09 is the other enviro target race. The LCV and Defenders of Wildlife are surprisingly adroit at politicking – when they target someone, they defeat that politician over 70% of the time.

Welcome to the Congressional prognosticating party, I hope you’ll drop by a couple more times before E-Day.

I live in NY-20 and believe me, once the DCCC starts running ads showing Treadwell and Bush at the GOP convention in 2004, he will be toast. 

[Mr.Phips]

Johnny, you mocked Sam Spade and me for being self-important enough to have our own threads, and then you created your own thread? Nice one! Just like “conservative” Republicans preaching fiscal discipline and then running up record deficits.

Your list is solid, but I see a couple of questionable rankings. Starting with Democrats, why are PA-11 and AZ-08 (home to two of the few blue-chip GOP recruits) ranked below MS-01 (Greg Davis still the GOP nominee) and CA-11 (Andal is embroiled in a nasty scandal and his fundraising is mediocre)? Gillibrand faces a self-funder who was once New York’s SOS (read: he already has decent name ID), so I’d move that race up to Lean Democratic. Finally, Bill Foster is running against Oberweis again. Bump that race way down your list. If Lauzen were the nominee, I could understand “Lean Democratic” for IL-14, but Oberweis has basically given up and Obama is a huge help there.

I mostly agree with your Pure Tossup rankings. You’re a little more sanguine about NM-01 than I am (I just don’t think the liberal Anglo has the juice to win over fickle independents and Hispanics). WA-08 is a little too high, but that’s no big deal.  AL-02 should be moved down for reasons  already outline by Spade, and I’d move NC-08 and NV-03 up, too. I just can’t see Jon “luckiest incumbent this side of Jim Gerlach” Porter in the same category as CA-04, which is hard-core conservative territory. If Charlie Brown couldn’t defeat Doolittle in 2006, how can he defeat conservative hero McClintock in a POTUS year?

Some other notes –you may be underestimating the competitiveness of CO-04, FL-24, and MI-09. The same enviros that took out Pombo last cycle are now after Musgrave.  The DCCC will spend big there and the Democrats have a top-notch candidate with no personal problems or voting record for GOP operatives to pick through. FL-24 is a scandal seat to watch and MI-09 is the other enviro target race. The LCV and Defenders of Wildlife are surprisingly adroit at politicking – when they target someone, they defeat that politician over 70% of the time.

Welcome to the Congressional prognosticating party, I hope you’ll drop by a couple more times before E-Day.

I live in NY-20 and believe me, once the DCCC starts running ads showing Treadwell and Bush at the GOP convention in 2004, he will be toast. 

I agree, but don't you think that it should be rated above MS-01? Also, let's hope the DCCC doesn't have to bail out Gillibrand. Doesn't she already have the largest CoH of any frosh?

It should be rated above MS-01, but would put it somewhere between lean and likely Dem.  Im pretty sure if polls show Treadwell very close or ahead, the DCCC would be on the air hammering him or would be forcing Gillibrand to do so. 

[Mr.Phips]

Ive been going through some numbers for PA-HD-50 and that district is far more Democratic than I thought it was.  Although Kerry won it just 51%-48% in 2004, Gore won it 55%-42% and Dukakis won it 65%-34%!!  Hell, even Walter Mondale won it 61%-39%. 

Its not surprising that going back to the 80's this district was Heavilly Democratic but since then the trend in Western PA has been toward the GOP. Swann did out perform his statewide showing in this area. On the US House scale The 4th district was won by both Swann and Santorum even while Hart was losing. Thats why I think Altmire is endanger and will lose in 2010 if not 2008.

Casey won PA-04 55%-45% in 2006. 

[Mr.Phips]

Ive been going through some numbers for PA-HD-50 and that district is far more Democratic than I thought it was.  Although Kerry won it just 51%-48% in 2004, Gore won it 55%-42% and Dukakis won it 65%-34%!!  Hell, even Walter Mondale won it 61%-39%. 

Its not surprising that going back to the 80's this district was Heavilly Democratic but since then the trend in Western PA has been toward the GOP. Swann did out perform his statewide showing in this area. On the US House scale The 4th district was won by both Swann and Santorum even while Hart was losing. Thats why I think Altmire is endanger and will lose in 2010 if not 2008.

Casey won PA-04 55%-45% in 2006. 

Thats what you get when you trust second hand Info. I wish this site had CD based results for all the races including Senate. I knew Santorum performed better in that area then he did Statewide and he did by about 7 or 8. Thanks for those numbers?

There is no way Santorum got over 46% in this district.  Santorum got just 38% of the vote in Beaver county and 42% in Lawrence county.  As a whole, these two counties cast about 38% of the total district vote.  This would mean that Santorum had to win the rest of the district handily. 

[Mr.Phips]

Ive been going through some numbers for PA-HD-50 and that district is far more Democratic than I thought it was.  Although Kerry won it just 51%-48% in 2004, Gore won it 55%-42% and Dukakis won it 65%-34%!!  Hell, even Walter Mondale won it 61%-39%. 

Its not surprising that going back to the 80's this district was Heavilly Democratic but since then the trend in Western PA has been toward the GOP. Swann did out perform his statewide showing in this area. On the US House scale The 4th district was won by both Swann and Santorum even while Hart was losing. Thats why I think Altmire is endanger and will lose in 2010 if not 2008.

Casey won PA-04 55%-45% in 2006. 

Thats what you get when you trust second hand Info. I wish this site had CD based results for all the races including Senate. I knew Santorum performed better in that area then he did Statewide and he did by about 7 or 8. Thanks for those numbers?

There is no way Santorum got over 46% in this district.  Santorum got just 38% of the vote in Beaver county and 42% in Lawrence county.  As a whole, these two counties cast about 38% of the total district vote.  This would mean that Santorum had to win the rest of the district handily. 

Well at least he won Susquehanna County, were I was born, abeit 51%-48%. He got over 60% there in 2000.

Susquehanna is in PA-10.

[Mr.Phips]

I'd be wary of dropping Fl-08. Keller seems to be in real trouble this year.

Yes and I think he will lose.