JLT's House Predictions: Final Version, No For Real This Time

[Dan the Roman]

Johnny, you mocked Sam Spade and me for being self-important enough to have our own threads, and then you created your own thread? Nice one! Just like “conservative” Republicans preaching fiscal discipline and then running up record deficits.

Your list is solid, but I see a couple of questionable rankings. Starting with Democrats, why are PA-11 and AZ-08 (home to two of the few blue-chip GOP recruits) ranked below MS-01 (Greg Davis still the GOP nominee) and CA-11 (Andal is embroiled in a nasty scandal and his fundraising is mediocre)? Gillibrand faces a self-funder who was once New York’s SOS (read: he already has decent name ID), so I’d move that race up to Lean Democratic. Finally, Bill Foster is running against Oberweis again. Bump that race way down your list. If Lauzen were the nominee, I could understand “Lean Democratic” for IL-14, but Oberweis has basically given up and Obama is a huge help there.

I mostly agree with your Pure Tossup rankings. You’re a little more sanguine about NM-01 than I am (I just don’t think the liberal Anglo has the juice to win over fickle independents and Hispanics). WA-08 is a little too high, but that’s no big deal.  AL-02 should be moved down for reasons  already outline by Spade, and I’d move NC-08 and NV-03 up, too. I just can’t see Jon “luckiest incumbent this side of Jim Gerlach” Porter in the same category as CA-04, which is hard-core conservative territory. If Charlie Brown couldn’t defeat Doolittle in 2006, how can he defeat conservative hero McClintock in a POTUS year?

Some other notes –you may be underestimating the competitiveness of CO-04, FL-24, and MI-09. The same enviros that took out Pombo last cycle are now after Musgrave.  The DCCC will spend big there and the Democrats have a top-notch candidate with no personal problems or voting record for GOP operatives to pick through. FL-24 is a scandal seat to watch and MI-09 is the other enviro target race. The LCV and Defenders of Wildlife are surprisingly adroit at politicking – when they target someone, they defeat that politician over 70% of the time.

Welcome to the Congressional prognosticating party, I hope you’ll drop by a couple more times before E-Day.

I live in NY-20 and believe me, once the DCCC starts running ads showing Treadwell and Bush at the GOP convention in 2004, he will be toast. 

I agree, but don't you think that it should be rated above MS-01? Also, let's hope the DCCC doesn't have to bail out Gillibrand. Doesn't she already have the largest CoH of any frosh?

MS-01 is likely Dem. Davis raised like 10K since the special election. He has given up.

[Dan the Roman]

I have hunch that FL-24 will surprise. Feeney won only 59% against a complete lunatic in 2006, and he has been out raised this year. Furthermore, he's never been well-liked generally in Florida, and while it is a Republican district he is arguably both too far right and too abrasive to be secure.  He also has Abramoff baggage that makes him vulnerable to an October scandal dump.

I actually think he is in a very similar situation to Pombo last year. Republican district, but not overwelmingly so, incumbent with many enemies who fails to take any seriously, lots of scandals, interest groups that want the incumbent out etc.

And Kosmas is a stronger candidate than McNerney was by far.

[Dan the Roman]

I'd be wary of dropping Fl-08. Keller seems to be in real trouble this year.