JLT's House Predictions: Final Version, No For Real This Time

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Ive been going through some numbers for PA-HD-50 and that district is far more Democratic than I thought it was.  Although Kerry won it just 51%-48% in 2004, Gore won it 55%-42% and Dukakis won it 65%-34%!!  Hell, even Walter Mondale won it 61%-39%. 

Its not surprising that going back to the 80's this district was Heavilly Democratic but since then the trend in Western PA has been toward the GOP. Swann did out perform his statewide showing in this area. On the US House scale The 4th district was won by both Swann and Santorum even while Hart was losing. Thats why I think Altmire is endanger and will lose in 2010 if not 2008.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Ive been going through some numbers for PA-HD-50 and that district is far more Democratic than I thought it was.  Although Kerry won it just 51%-48% in 2004, Gore won it 55%-42% and Dukakis won it 65%-34%!!  Hell, even Walter Mondale won it 61%-39%. 

Its not surprising that going back to the 80's this district was Heavilly Democratic but since then the trend in Western PA has been toward the GOP. Swann did out perform his statewide showing in this area. On the US House scale The 4th district was won by both Swann and Santorum even while Hart was losing. Thats why I think Altmire is endanger and will lose in 2010 if not 2008.

Casey won PA-04 55%-45% in 2006. 

Thats what you get when you trust second hand Info. I wish this site had CD based results for all the races including Senate. I knew Santorum performed better in that area then he did Statewide and he did by about 7 or 8. Thanks for those numbers?

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Ive been going through some numbers for PA-HD-50 and that district is far more Democratic than I thought it was.  Although Kerry won it just 51%-48% in 2004, Gore won it 55%-42% and Dukakis won it 65%-34%!!  Hell, even Walter Mondale won it 61%-39%. 

Its not surprising that going back to the 80's this district was Heavilly Democratic but since then the trend in Western PA has been toward the GOP. Swann did out perform his statewide showing in this area. On the US House scale The 4th district was won by both Swann and Santorum even while Hart was losing. Thats why I think Altmire is endanger and will lose in 2010 if not 2008.

Casey won PA-04 55%-45% in 2006. 

Thats what you get when you trust second hand Info. I wish this site had CD based results for all the races including Senate. I knew Santorum performed better in that area then he did Statewide and he did by about 7 or 8. Thanks for those numbers?

There is no way Santorum got over 46% in this district.  Santorum got just 38% of the vote in Beaver county and 42% in Lawrence county.  As a whole, these two counties cast about 38% of the total district vote.  This would mean that Santorum had to win the rest of the district handily. 

Well at least he won Susquehanna County, were I was born, abeit 51%-48%. He got over 60% there in 2000.