JLT's House Predictions: Final Version, No For Real This Time

[Keystone Phil]

I'd still put PA-6 at least on the horizon.  If we had our act together there with Mike Gerber or Andy Dinniman, the seat would be a pure Tossup, if not lean Dem.

Dinniman - Sure. Toss up/lean Dem

Gerber - Don't be so sure about that.

PA 6 is basically done for you guys. Gerlach has weathered every major storm. Giving him a joke opponent in 2008 seals the deal.

[Keystone Phil]

I'd still put PA-6 at least on the horizon.  If we had our act together there with Mike Gerber or Andy Dinniman, the seat would be a pure Tossup, if not lean Dem.

Dinniman - Sure. Toss up/lean Dem

Gerber - Don't be so sure about that.

PA 6 is basically done for you guys. Gerlach has weathered every major storm. Giving him a joke opponent in 2008 seals the deal.

But running Dinniman would likely cost Democrats his Senate seat. 

Absolutely but what do you care? I wonder how much the state Dems would care anyway. They're at such a disadvantage in that chamber anyway.

[Keystone Phil]

I'd still put PA-6 at least on the horizon.  If we had our act together there with Mike Gerber or Andy Dinniman, the seat would be a pure Tossup, if not lean Dem.

Dinniman - Sure. Toss up/lean Dem

Gerber - Don't be so sure about that.

PA 6 is basically done for you guys. Gerlach has weathered every major storm. Giving him a joke opponent in 2008 seals the deal.

But running Dinniman would likely cost Democrats his Senate seat. 

Absolutely but what do you care? I wonder how much the state Dems would care anyway. They're at such a disadvantage in that chamber anyway.

They cannot afford to be losing seats in the Senate when they are already down 21-29. 

It's only a matter of time before they lose that one (and others) anyway.

[Keystone Phil]

I dont think they could possibly go any lower.  Especially considering all of the Dem leaning districts Republicans hold in the Philly suburbs. 

They're probably going to lose one out west due to Bonusgate. One of the guys involved is a State Representative running for an open Democratic seat. He refuses to step down as a candidate.

[Keystone Phil]

I dont think they could possibly go any lower.  Especially considering all of the Dem leaning districts Republicans hold in the Philly suburbs. 

They're probably going to lose one out west due to Bonusgate. One of the guys involved is a State Representative running for an open Democratic seat. He refuses to step down as a candidate.

Is this the Beaver county based seat?  I have a hard time seeing how a Republican gets elected in a Democratic stronghold like Beaver County and dont say Melissa Hart, because her district included very Republican areas in Butler county to balance the district off. 

This scandals are a big deal out there. The Democratic leader of the House is in a very strong Democratic seat. He almost lost last time. He's probably going to lose this time. The Democratic Whip (who is also involved with Bonusgate) lost last time because of the pay raise. His seat was also a strong Democratic seat.

[Keystone Phil]

Where were and are these seats?  Which counties?

Veon (lost in 2006) - 14th district - Beaver county

DeWeese - 50th district - Fayette, Greene and Washington counties

[Keystone Phil]

Beaver showed in 2006 that it is more than happy to throw out dodgy Democrats. And Veon's former district is more Democratic than the county as whole (and looks very like an incumbent-protection gerrymander as well).

Exactly and Marshall won by about eight points. Now who knows if he'll lose this year but it just goes to show you that Democratic candidates involved in scandal don't always find a way to win in these areas.

[Keystone Phil]

Where were and are these seats?  Which counties?

Veon (lost in 2006) - 14th district - Beaver county

DeWeese - 50th district - Fayette, Greene and Washington counties

Are Democrats likely to get back the 14th in a Presidential year or did they fumble this one as well?

That's the one I referenced in my post responding to Al. Everyone believed that Marshall would be gone after one term; that the voters just wanted to be rid of Veon and would wait two years for another Democrat. I don't know the state of Marshall's race though. I'll try to find out.

DeWeese is going to lose if he stays around until November. There are calls for his resignation as leader. If he did that, I bet he'd just leave the House as well. If he sticks around, I don't see how he wins. DeWeese was unopposed in his primary and still had to spend hundreds of thousands. Why? He needed to win back the confidence of Democrats. It didn't work that well. 25% of Democrats wrote in his GOP opponent (the same guy from 2006) against DeWeese.

[Keystone Phil]

Where were and are these seats?  Which counties?

Veon (lost in 2006) - 14th district - Beaver county

DeWeese - 50th district - Fayette, Greene and Washington counties

Are Democrats likely to get back the 14th in a Presidential year or did they fumble this one as well?

That's the one I referenced in my post responding to Al. Everyone believed that Marshall would be gone after one term; that the voters just wanted to be rid of Veon and would wait two years for another Democrat. I don't know the state of Marshall's race though. I'll try to find out.

DeWeese is going to lose if he stays around until November. There are calls for his resignation as leader. If he did that, I bet he'd just leave the House as well. If he sticks around, I don't see how he wins. DeWeese was unopposed in his primary and still had to spend hundreds of thousands. Why? He needed to win back the confidence of Democrats. It didn't work that well. 25% of Democrats wrote in his GOP opponent (the same guy from 2006) against DeWeese.

It looks as if the voter registration in that district is so Democratic that DeWeese could lose 25% of Dems and still win, but its unlikely. 

He's in a lot more trouble than he was in 2006. He only won by six points in 2006. He's done.

[Keystone Phil]

It looks like Bob Casey won here by about 64%-36% in the 2006 Senate race.  DeWeese ran about 11 points behind Casey. 

Which is horrible for DeWeese.

Off topic - Note how well Swann did - 45% of the vote.

[Keystone Phil]

It looks like Bob Casey won here by about 64%-36% in the 2006 Senate race.  DeWeese ran about 11 points behind Casey. 

Which is horrible for DeWeese.

Off topic - Note how well Swann did - 45% of the vote.

More bad news for DeWeese:

http://www.politickerpa.com/wallyedgepa/1129/tally-board-deweese-resigning-leadership-postion
http://www.politicker.com/poll-voters-want-deweese-step-down-think-legislature-doing-poor-job

Oh, believe me, I know. It's always something/someone new everyday.