Pre-speech national poll average: Bush/Kerry exactly TIED in 3-way

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

In the past week, we've seen six national polls of the race with Nader included: two with Kerry ahead, two with Bush ahead, two tied.  

The result in my 3-week weighted average of national polls (weighting more recent polls more heavily), has Bush and Kerry exactly tied at 45.8%, with Nader at 2.9%.  In the two-way match-up, Kerry maintains a minuscule lead of 0.6%.

So I think it's fair to say that whatever lead Bush comes out of his speech with, that was his "bounce".

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

and all the Republicans here are saying it's all over, Kerry's toast, blah blah blah...

what is in my opinion the best electoral tracking site is actually ran by a Republican, and he has a very slight lead for Kerry, with the race being basically a total toss-up: http://www.dalythoughts.com/ecb.htm

[The Vorlon]

I divide them up by LV and RV

The averages I have are:

2 Way LV - Bush + 0.52%
3 Way LV - Kerry + 0.09%


2 Way RV - Kerry + 0.20
3 way RV - Kerry + 0.29

My averages go back "about" 10 days to reflect the last polling "cycle"

Which is another way of saying "tied" just "tied with more decimal places

I am very curious what tomorrows tracking polls will say.

A quick take on the overnights from this morning:

The Zell Miller speech did 5 things:

It fired up democrats,
It fired up Republicans
It scared a few leaners towards Kerry
It scared a few leaners away from Kerry
It pushed up Kerry's Negatives.

Does Bush's speech last night soften up Bush's image enough to bring back the moderates Miller scared off to the Bush camp...?

[zorkpolitics]

and all the Republicans here are saying it's all over, Kerry's toast, blah blah blah...

what is in my opinion the best electoral tracking site is actually ran by a Republican, and he has a very slight lead for Kerry, with the race being basically a total toss-up: http://www.dalythoughts.com/ecb.htm

Nice site thanks,
But Bush does lead there slightly:
Popular vote projecton: Bush  46.6% v Kerry 46.2%
EV (I've included OH for Bush based on the most recent polls quoted at the site):
Bush 270 Kerry 259 CO 9EV tied