NH-UNH Survey Center: Obama leads by 3%

[TheresNoMoney]

7/11-7/20, 475 Likely Voters, MOE +/- 4.5%

Obama    46%
McCain    43%

Link

Strange that the poll results span 9 days. Also strange that Obama leads by 7% in NH-01 (the more moderate/conservative district) and is tied in NH-02 (the more liberal district).

[Meeker]

Haha, funny.

Burn it

[Wiz in Wis]

Haha, funny.

Burn it

This poll looks like a joke to me: 45% of independents undecided? looks like they didn't push leaners at all.

Also, for all those who think this is good news for McCain... it represents a 9 point swing towards Obama since late May, when McCain led by 6 (49-43)

[TheresNoMoney]

UNH Survey Center has a pretty good track record, but this poll does look strange to me.

[Sam Spade]

Well, it's summer polling.

However, the MOE on the CDs is too large for us to read much into it, nor extrapolate the accuracy of the larger NH poll.

[Verily]

UNH is a good pollster. Don't knock them for no reason.

[Alcon]

UNH is a good pollster. Don't knock them for no reason.

They are, but even a 4.5% MoE poll from a good pollster is a throw-out in the summer.

[WalterMitty]

so nh is closer than oh?

i find that difficult to believe.

[Rowan]

so nh is closer than oh?

i find that difficult to believe.

Why is it hard to believe? NH was closer in 2004 than OH.

[emailking]

Strange that the poll results span 9 days. Also strange that Obama leads by 7% in NH-01 (the more moderate/conservative district) and is tied in NH-02 (the more liberal district).

Well it may seem strange but it's not unexpected. These sub-polls have smaller sample sizes than the full poll and so there is less accuracy.

[WalterMitty]

so nh is closer than oh?

i find that difficult to believe.

Why is it hard to believe? NH was closer in 2004 than OH.

not 5 points closer/

[elcorazon]

so nh is closer than oh?

i find that difficult to believe.

yeah, the poll must be wrong.  it doesn't fit my preconceived notions.