AK: Rasmussen: McCain leads Alaska by 5%
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  AK: Rasmussen: McCain leads Alaska by 5%
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Author Topic: AK: Rasmussen: McCain leads Alaska by 5%  (Read 2975 times)
Verily
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« Reply #25 on: July 22, 2008, 10:47:58 PM »
« edited: July 22, 2008, 10:49:34 PM by Verily »

I love how you guys assume that Obama going to a state will automatically make them vote for him. McCain has been to NJ 5 times since clinching the nomination, and yet he still trails in the polls. Red states are red states and blue states are blue states, thats just the way it is.

That's not what either Verily or I said.  If Obama has visited the state and still trails in the polls by 5%, it's worthless, even as a distraction.  Visiting a state, especially a relatively attention-starved one (i.e., not New Jersey) tends to have some effect (see North Dakota)

^^^

Obama's visits to states also tend to generate a tad bit more, erm, "excitement", than McCain's.

The point particularly with Alaska is that visits closer to Election Day are infeasible as the weather gets nasty. So, if Obama visited during August or early September, not only does he get the credit for visiting, but it becomes logistically very difficult for McCain to then visit thereafter. (This is true of other small states as well, such as Montana and the Dakotas, or maybe Delaware in reverse, but mostly because candidates are unlikely to want to take time off from major states in October the same way they might do so in July.) And one trip to Alaska is probably worth ten to Pennsylvania or Ohio or Colorado or Virginia in terms of what percentage of the electorate it sways.
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