DCCC expands ad buy to +50 (!) districts

[Sam Spade]

As usual, it's more important to note the races left off, as opposed to the ones included.  On my list, it is as follows:

DEM
Likely R
29. KY-02* (Lewis)
31. WY-AL* (Cubin)
32. MD-01* (Gilchrest)
33. OH-02 (Schmidt)
34. WV-02 (Capito)

GOP
Toss-up
4. PA-10 (Carney)
7. GA-08 (Marshall - maybe the Obama campaign is covering here )

Lean D
12. CT-05 (Murphy)
16. NY-20 (Gillibrand)
17. PA-11 (Kanjorski - other buys have already been made here)

Likely D
21. KS-03 (Moore)
22. MN-01 (Walz)
And now for my Watch List races that have been included...

DEM
CA-04* (Doolittle - this spending won't actually occur, we know)
FL-21 (Diaz-Balart - going fishing in Cuba)
FL-24 (Feeney - I may move this one up anyway, considering fundraising)
FL-25 (Diaz-Balart - going fishing in Cuba)

GOP
IL-14 (Foster - this spending won't actually occur, we know)
MS-01 (Childers - see above)

lol
FL-18 (Ros-Lehtinen)

[Sam Spade]

That was a mental screw-up.  Interposed Rs in the place of Ds.  It happens.  Has been corrected. 

[Sam Spade]

PA-10 is the most perplexing omission. Carney is a frosh in a 60% Bush district. That's not a safe place for any freshman Democrat, let alone one with a self-funder foe.

Not to mention being in a place where it will be next-to-impossible to buy advertising in the last few weeks of the campaign unless you do it in advance.  Same thing goes with OH-02 - guess they don't believe in Wulsin having any shot.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Interesting. 

Still, why allocate money now on races where I must admit it's going to probably take a small miracle to be interesting (McClintock comes to mind, the Cubans also, especially Ros-Lehtinen (lol), though it may be hard to get advertising there in the last few weeks, though not if Obama keeps polling in FL as he has been), as opposed to a race when winning is a possibility. 

I think it's a poor decision - I mean Marshall will vote with you about half of the time - and if the 2010 environment is bad, you ignore him then, not now.

[Sam Spade]

PA-10 is the most perplexing omission. Carney is a frosh in a 60% Bush district. That's not a safe place for any freshman Democrat, let alone one with a self-funder foe.

Not to mention being in a place where it will be next-to-impossible to buy advertising in the last few weeks of the campaign unless you do it in advance.  Same thing goes with OH-02 - guess they don't believe in Wulsin having any shot.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Interesting. 

Still, why allocate money now on races where I must admit it's going to probably take a small miracle to be interesting (McClintock comes to mind, the Cubans also, especially Ros-Lehtinen (lol), though it may be hard to get advertising there in the last few weeks, though not if Obama keeps polling in FL as he has been), as opposed to a race when winning is a possibility. 

I think it's a poor decision - I mean Marshall will vote with you about half of the time - and if the 2010 environment is bad, you ignore him then, not now.

Yeah. The DCCC must think OH-02 is done. I find that odd because Wulsin only lost by 1%, a closer showing than the ballyhooed Paul Hackett had in a lower-turnout election. I can only speculate that Wulsin antagonized the DCCC in some way. Why else would they spend dough in ID-01 (which has an even higher R+ PVI), and not in OH-02?

It will be tough to beat Sali.  Not impossible, however.  Still, I'd probably place him on the same level (cross that, slightly above) Schmidt.

Schmidt isn't exactly knocking the world sideways with her fundraising, either.