DCCC expands ad buy to +50 (!) districts

[MarkWarner08]

District     Incumbent     Early Buy Amt.     Early Buy Pts.
AL-02    Everett (R)-Open    $598,000    10,000
AL-05    Cramer (D)-Open    $678,000    8,000
AZ-08    Giffords (D)    $705,000    5,000
CA-04, CA-11    Doolittle (R)-Open, McNerney (D)    $2.03 M    4,650 (multiple mkts.)
FL-18, FL-21 and FL-25    Ros-Lehtinen (R), M. Diaz-Balart (R), L. Diaz-Balart (R)    1.4 M    2,400
ID-01    Sali (R)    $349,000    4,000 (multiple mkts.)
IL-10    Kirk (R)    $1.4 M    2,300
IL-11    Weller (R)-Open    $1.6 M    4,200 (multiple mkts.)
IL-14    Foster (D)    $1.02 M    2,400 (multiple mkts.)
LA-04    McCrery (R)-Open    $714,000    9,000 (multiple mkts.)
MO-06    Graves (R)    $798,000    5,600 (multiple mkts.)
MS-01    Childers (D)    $1.06 M    10,000 (multiple mkts.)
NJ-03    Saxton (R)-Open    1.7 M    3,300 (multiple mkts.)
NY-25, NY-26, NY-29    Walsh (R)-Open, Reynolds (R)-Open, Kuhl (R)    $2.7 M    20,000
WA-08    Reichert (R)    $949,000    2,425

http://blog.washingtonpost.com/thefix/2008/07/house_democratic_campaign_arms.html

The DCCC is targeting Ros-Lehtinen. Somewhere, likely in a cramped, dank basement, HardRCafe is cackling to himself.

The CA-11 and IL-14 ad buys are questionable, too. I hope the DCCC doesn't have to spend $$$ in those districts.

[MarkWarner08]

Do they actually think they can win AL-2

The AL-02 race is similar to the 2006 KY-02 race. In both contests, teh DCC recurited top-flight challengers who probably would've won the seats in a walk, if the races had been held 20 years ago. The DCCC is giving Bright a boost here.  But barring his opponent having a love nest with Mexican nightwalkers, Bright will likely come outpace the Democratic performance but still face short.

[MarkWarner08]

WA-08    Reichert (R)    $949,000    2,425

Thank you DCCC.

XOXO Meeker

There was no way they'd leave a top-tier race like that without air support.

[MarkWarner08]

As usual, it's more important to note the races left off, as opposed to the ones included.  On my list, it is as follows:

DEM
Likely R
29. KY-02* (Lewis)
31. WY-AL* (Cubin)
32. MD-01* (Gilchrest)
33. OH-02 (Schmidt)
34. WV-02 (Capito)

GOP
Toss-up
4. PA-10 (Carney)
7. GA-08 (Marshall - maybe the Obama campaign is covering here )

Lean D
12. CT-05 (Murphy)
16. NY-20 (Gillibrand)
17. PA-11 (Kanjorski - other buys have already been made here)

Likely D
21. KS-03 (Moore)
22. MN-01 (Walz)
And now for my Watch List races that have been included...

DEM
CA-04* (Doolittle - this spending won't actually occur, we know)
FL-21 (Diaz-Balart - going fishing in Cuba)
FL-24 (Feeney - I may move this one up anyway, considering fundraising)
FL-25 (Diaz-Balart - going fishing in Cuba)

GOP
IL-14 (Foster - this spending won't actually occur, we know)
MS-01 (Childers - see above)

lol
FL-18 (Ros-Lehtinen)

PA-10 is the most perplexing omission. Carney is a frosh in a 60% Bush district. That's not a safe place for any freshman Democrat, let alone one with a self-funder foe.

As to GA-08, I've heard rumblings that the DCCC actually hopes Marshall loses. They seem him as another John Hostettler, a mediocre fund raiser in a swing district who needs to be bailed out every two years.

[MarkWarner08]

PA-10 is the most perplexing omission. Carney is a frosh in a 60% Bush district. That's not a safe place for any freshman Democrat, let alone one with a self-funder foe.

Not to mention being in a place where it will be next-to-impossible to buy advertising in the last few weeks of the campaign unless you do it in advance.  Same thing goes with OH-02 - guess they don't believe in Wulsin having any shot.

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Interesting. 

Still, why allocate money now on races where I must admit it's going to probably take a small miracle to be interesting (McClintock comes to mind, the Cubans also, especially Ros-Lehtinen (lol), though it may be hard to get advertising there in the last few weeks, though not if Obama keeps polling in FL as he has been), as opposed to a race when winning is a possibility. 

I think it's a poor decision - I mean Marshall will vote with you about half of the time - and if the 2010 environment is bad, you ignore him then, not now.

Yeah. The DCCC must think OH-02 is done. I find that odd because Wulsin only lost by 1%, a closer showing than the ballyhooed Paul Hackett had in a lower-turnout election. I can only speculate that Wulsin antagonized the DCCC in some way. Why else would they spend dough in ID-01 (which has an even higher R+ PVI), and not in OH-02?

[MarkWarner08]

Rothenberg thinks Wulsin is unimpressive and muddled in her views. Perhaps the DCCC agrees, or simply doesn't want to invest in a one-term wonder.

While I haven't met Wulsin, based on what I've gleaned from her website, I'd agree with Rothenberg's view.  I still don't understand why Wulsin, a likely "one-term wonder," is less worthy than Walt Minnick (ID-01), another likely one-term wonder.

I guess we'll have to wait till 2012 for redistricting to end Schmidt's career.

[MarkWarner08]

Rothenberg thinks Wulsin is unimpressive and muddled in her views. Perhaps the DCCC agrees, or simply doesn't want to invest in a one-term wonder.

While I haven't met Wulsin, based on what I've gleaned from her website, I'd agree with Rothenberg's view.  I still don't understand why Wulsin, a likely "one-term wonder," is less worthy than Walt Minnick (ID-01), another likely one-term wonder.

I guess we'll have to wait till 2012 for redistricting to end Schmidt's career.

ID-01 was actually held by a Democrat for two terms from 1990 to 1994. 

That was before Idaho trended from Republican-leaning to super Republican. Democrat= environmentalist, which is a bad word in most parts of Idaho (read: anywhere other than Sun Valley, which is populated by rich carpetbaggers who think of the environment as an amenity, like a seaweed massage).

[MarkWarner08]

Rothenberg thinks Wulsin is unimpressive and muddled in her views. Perhaps the DCCC agrees, or simply doesn't want to invest in a one-term wonder.

While I haven't met Wulsin, based on what I've gleaned from her website, I'd agree with Rothenberg's view.  I still don't understand why Wulsin, a likely "one-term wonder," is less worthy than Walt Minnick (ID-01), another likely one-term wonder.

I guess we'll have to wait till 2012 for redistricting to end Schmidt's career.

I think Minnick would have a much better shot holding on than Wulsin. Wulsin's success is mostly attributable to Schmidt's generous suggestion that the feds store nuclear waste in her district among other things. Most people who voted for Wulsin probably have no idea who she is, and she dosen't have the profile that would let her surrive in the district.

Minnick on the other hand is a substantial figure in Idaho(or as substantial as any Democrat is). He was close to the Clintons, and was a strong recruit against Craig in 1996. While he will have a hard race, Minnick seems to have a better shot at being the next Chet Edwards than Wulsin does.

This however doesn't explain why in the post-millionaire's amendment world the DCCC is spending money on the self-funding Minnick who spent 2 million of his own money running for Senate in 1996.

A better question is what would have happened if Hackett had run in 2006 and won. I think he might actually have had a shot at ingratiating himself enough in that district to hold on. He had an interesting biography and the right issue profile to do so.

Being close to the Clintons is probably why he did so poorly in 1996 -- losing by 18%. The Clinton brand there is still radioactive, even among Democrats. Chet Edwards preceded Marvin Leath, a well-liked Democratic incumbent. The  district that Edwards won had voted Democratic since its creation and his initial win was solid for an open seat race.

I doubt Minnick will break 50%, or much higher than 45%, in a POTUS year. The anti-Sali vote, like the anti-Chenoweth vote, is probably capped at 48%, which was Dan Williams' 1996 showing.

I agree with your about Hackett. If he'd ended his hissy fit about being pushed out of the Senate race and run for Congress, he likely would've won.

[MarkWarner08]

Actually an espresso bar that just jacked its prices, but otherwise exactly.

Limousine conservative.

One conservative tongue-in-cheek mocking the other for displaying a trait of a rich liberal. Priceless.

[MarkWarner08]

One conservative tongue-in-cheek mocking the other for displaying a trait of a rich liberal. Priceless.

Pardon, who is the other Conservative?

You didn't hear?  I joined John Birch today.

I will wear the dunce cap now. I assumed HRC was disavowing his conservative views. I forgot that you are "Mr. Moderate." Well, you'd be a conservative if you lived in my hometown.