NM: Rasmussen: Obama ahead by 6%

[Josh/Devilman88]

New Poll: New Mexico President by Rasmussen on 2008-07-24

Summary: D: 49%, R: 43%, U: 8%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Ronnie]

Many NM polls in '04 showed Kerry leading by a good amount -- The state simply can't be polled.  I'm not close to giving up on NM just yet.

[Josh/Devilman88]

NM is a funny state, but in the end I believe it will go to Obama by 1% or 2%

[Ronnie]

NM is a funny state, but in the end I believe it will go to Obama by 1% or 2%

Well, It's a bit early to make that projection, don't you think?  I think that the state will be right with the national popular vote as it always has, and no one knows how that will go yet.

[Wiz in Wis]

NM is a funny state, but in the end I believe it will go to Obama by 1% or 2%

Well, It's a bit early to make that projection, don't you think?  I think that the state will be right with the national popular vote as it always has, and no one knows how that will go yet.

Pew says that Obama is leading with Hispanics nationally 66-24. This also included Floridian Cuban-Americans, which means Obama might be getting 70%+ of the Hispanic vote in NM

[Josh/Devilman88]

NM is a funny state, but in the end I believe it will go to Obama by 1% or 2%

Well, It's a bit early to make that projection, don't you think?  I think that the state will be right with the national popular vote as it always has, and no one knows how that will go yet.

Pew says that Obama is leading with Hispanics nationally 66-24. This also included Floridian Cuban-Americans, which means Obama might be getting 70%+ of the Hispanic vote in NM

That can't be true, Hispanic will not vote for Obama because he is black!   Remember when Hilliary tried to say that.. hehe.

[Ronnie]

NM is a funny state, but in the end I believe it will go to Obama by 1% or 2%

Well, It's a bit early to make that projection, don't you think?  I think that the state will be right with the national popular vote as it always has, and no one knows how that will go yet.

Pew says that Obama is leading with Hispanics nationally 66-24. This also included Floridian Cuban-Americans, which means Obama might be getting 70%+ of the Hispanic vote in NM

That may be true, but I don't think the states of NM along with CO are lost yet. 

[Wiz in Wis]

NM is a funny state, but in the end I believe it will go to Obama by 1% or 2%

Well, It's a bit early to make that projection, don't you think?  I think that the state will be right with the national popular vote as it always has, and no one knows how that will go yet.

Pew says that Obama is leading with Hispanics nationally 66-24. This also included Floridian Cuban-Americans, which means Obama might be getting 70%+ of the Hispanic vote in NM

That may be true, but I don't think the states of NM along with CO are lost yet. 

I dunno why ronnie, but unlike a few repubs on this forum, I really respect your caution and optimism for your candidate. It may be your signature...

[Reaganfan]

NM is a funny state, but in the end I believe it will go to Obama by 1% or 2%

[Flying Dog]

NM is a funny state, but in the end I believe it will go to Obama by 1% or 2%

Well, It's a bit early to make that projection, don't you think?  I think that the state will be right with the national popular vote as it always has, and no one knows how that will go yet.

I think a gut projection is just as good as a poll in the case of NM.

[TheresNoMoney]

Why does everyone say NM is so hard to poll? I'm genuinely unaware of the reasons.

[© tweed]

Why does everyone say NM is so hard to poll? I'm genuinely unaware of the reasons.

because Sam Spade said so

[The Mikado]

Why does everyone say NM is so hard to poll? I'm genuinely unaware of the reasons.

Because its demographics are...unique.  Poor people, new Hispanics, old Hispanics, Natives, old whites, new whites, etc.

It's one of the four states I'm least confident in predicting at the moment.  The others are Ohio, Virginia, and Nevada, for the record.  I can put all the others into at least Lean X.

[Gustaf]

Why does everyone say NM is so hard to poll? I'm genuinely unaware of the reasons.

because Sam Spade and WMS said so

Corrected to include both of the forum's NM experts.

WMS still posts?

[MarkWarner08]

Why does everyone say NM is so hard to poll? I'm genuinely unaware of the reasons.

because Sam Spade and WMS said so

Corrected to include both of the forum's NM experts.

WMS still posts?

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=79114.msg1642355#msg1642355

[Gustaf]

Why does everyone say NM is so hard to poll? I'm genuinely unaware of the reasons.

because Sam Spade and WMS said so

Corrected to include both of the forum's NM experts.

WMS still posts?

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=79114.msg1642355#msg1642355

That's great to hear.

Oh, and concerning this poll...summer polling is definitely upon us. If you look at the polls we've seen recently they very obviously are not all right. Some of them may be right by luck but I'm not gonna get too excited either way with anything right now.

[Vsanto5]

I am still waiting for NM to poll +10 for McCain.  Until then, I feel it still leans Obama.

[Хahar 🤔]

Why does everyone say NM is so hard to poll? I'm genuinely unaware of the reasons.

because Sam Spade and WMS said so

Corrected to include both of the forum's NM experts.

WMS still posts?

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=79114.msg1642355#msg1642355

That's great to hear.

Yup; he came back about a month ago. Posts very sporadically, though, and only on NM-related topics.

[King]

Sam Spade is correct, guys.   You can't poll New Mexico.  Erratic turnout among Native Americans and Hispanics in the southern part of the state, fluxuations in the white population in between elections (they move from Beverly Hills to Los Alamos/Santa Fe or Texas to Hobbs/Las Cruces and back constantly), corrupt clerks/secretaries that make Katherine Harris look like a major FF, and an incredibly outdated paper ballot system that always ends up with problems that disenfranchise voters (they didn't print enough or there was a typo) mean that New Mexico is decided not by the opinions of the state but the situation that unfolds on election day.  Honestly, it wouldn't surprise me if Bush really won the state in 2000 but Kerry really won the state in 2004.

[Sam Spade]

Sam Spade is correct, guys.   You can't poll New Mexico.  Erratic turnout among Native Americans and Hispanics in the southern part of the state, fluxuations in the white population in between elections (they move from Beverly Hills to Los Alamos/Santa Fe or Texas to Hobbs/Las Cruces and back constantly), corrupt clerks/secretaries that make Katherine Harris look like a major FF, and an incredibly outdated paper ballot system that always ends up with problems that disenfranchise voters (they didn't print enough or there was a typo) mean that New Mexico is decided not by the opinions of the state but the situation that unfolds on election day.  Honestly, it wouldn't surprise me if Bush really won the state in 2000 but Kerry really won the state in 2004.

You forgot to mention that there's a certain cadre of swing voters in NM who will shift incessantly from one candidate to another and often like to shift in the polling booth.  And there's also the graveyard vote in certain counties.

It's funny.  For a state that consistently elects corrupt Dem politicians at the local level, at the national level, they really can and do go every which a way (i.e. coattails don't occur)

[JohnCA246]

I relaly dont think McCain can win without CO and NM.  Hes got to spend a lot of resources there regardless of polls.  Ohio is anyone's guess, but CO NM I believe is Obama's easiet path to victory.

[Mr.Phips]

I relaly dont think McCain can win without CO and NM.  Hes got to spend a lot of resources there regardless of polls.  Ohio is anyone's guess, but CO NM I believe is Obama's easiet path to victory.

I hear that McCain and Republicans have private polling that shows that if he picked Romney as VP, he would have about 5%-8% lead in Michigan.  Romney may be able to create a 1976-like Gerald Ford-like personal vote in the state that could help him win the state. 

[Flying Dog]

I relaly dont think McCain can win without CO and NM.  Hes got to spend a lot of resources there regardless of polls.  Ohio is anyone's guess, but CO NM I believe is Obama's easiet path to victory.

I hear that McCain and Republicans have private polling that shows that if he picked Romney as VP, he would have about 5%-8% lead in Michigan.  Romney may be able to create a 1976-like Gerald Ford-like personal vote in the state that could help him win the state. 

Hehe.....if it's private, it's not likely real.

[WMS]

Sam Spade is correct, guys.   You can't poll New Mexico.  Erratic turnout among Native Americans and Hispanics in the southern part of the state, fluxuations in the white population in between elections (they move from Beverly Hills to Los Alamos/Santa Fe or Texas to Hobbs/Las Cruces and back constantly), corrupt clerks/secretaries that make Katherine Harris look like a major FF, and an incredibly outdated paper ballot system that always ends up with problems that disenfranchise voters (they didn't print enough or there was a typo) mean that New Mexico is decided not by the opinions of the state but the situation that unfolds on election day.  Honestly, it wouldn't surprise me if Bush really won the state in 2000 but Kerry really won the state in 2004.

You forgot to mention that there's a certain cadre of swing voters in NM who will shift incessantly from one candidate to another and often like to shift in the polling booth.  And there's also the graveyard vote in certain counties.

It's funny.  For a state that consistently elects corrupt Dem politicians at the local level, at the national level, they really can and do go every which a way (i.e. coattails don't occur)

Both the above posts are quite accurate. Hey, I was there with a front-row seat to the 2000 mess...King's last comment could very well be true. And King, the ballot system has shifted three friggin times this decade in BernCo, and I'm not sure any of them work that well, although the current setup is probably the best...although, in a contingency you didn't mention, in the primary this year they printed too many ballots, as in, more ballots than there were people in BernCo, ostensibly to try and avoid running out of ballots. All had to be shredded afterwards...over a $1,000,000 loss, if I recall correctly.

And Sam, you can probably guess that I'm almost one of those swing voters you describe, although I make up my mind sooner.

[Aizen]

Hmm, 13 year olds are being registered to vote in NM?


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2BU29aeF_Fg