Congressional Insiders Poll

[TheresNoMoney]

According to the National Journal's Congressional Insiders Poll, Democrats think their party will pick up an average of 16.5 seats in the House of Representatives and 5.8 seats in the Senate this fall.

By contrast, GOP insiders think they will gain an average of 6.6 seats in the House and 3.9 seats in the Senate.

Link

[Хahar 🤔]

http://www.nationaljournal.com/njmagazine/ip_20080726_2795.php

Other link didn't work.

[MarkWarner08]

According to the National Journal's Congressional Insiders Poll, Democrats think their party will pick up an average of 16.5 seats in the House of Representatives and 5.8 seats in the Senate this fall.

By contrast, GOP insiders think they will gain an average of 6.6 seats in the House and 3.9 seats in the Senate.

Link

At first I read that as GOP insiders expect the GOP will gain 3.9 Senate seats.  Which would've been hilarious are only two Democratic seats in any degree of danger (LA and NJ).

[MarkWarner08]

"We won't win all 75 seats where Republican incumbents show an under-40 percent re-elect number in polls." 75 GOP incumbents are polling below 40% reelect? Am I the only person who thinks that number seems fishy?

[Padfoot]

"We won't win all 75 seats where Republican incumbents show an under-40 percent re-elect number in polls." 75 GOP incumbents are polling below 40% reelect? Am I the only person who thinks that number seems fishy?

This is completely unrelated to poll results but CQ Politics currently lists 21 GOP seats as Republican Favored, 23 as Leans Republican, 9 as No Clear Favorite, 4 as Leans Democrat, and 1 as Democrat Favored.  Thats a total of 58 seats that CQ views as Democratic gains or potential gains.  Not quite the 75 mentioned but still a rather large sampling IMO.

For comparison, they rate 13 Democratic held seats as Democrat Favored, 19 as Leans Democrat, and 5 as No Clear Favorite.

199 Democratic seats and 141 Republican seats are rated as safe for the incumbent party.  Or if you prefer, a minimum of 78.2% of House seats will remain unchanged.

[MarkWarner08]

"We won't win all 75 seats where Republican incumbents show an under-40 percent re-elect number in polls." 75 GOP incumbents are polling below 40% reelect? Am I the only person who thinks that number seems fishy?

This is completely unrelated to poll results but CQ Politics currently lists 21 GOP seats as Republican Favored, 23 as Leans Republican, 9 as No Clear Favorite, 4 as Leans Democrat, and 1 as Democrat Favored.  Thats a total of 58 seats that CQ views as Democratic gains or potential gains.  Not quite the 75 mentioned but still a rather large sampling IMO.

For comparison, they rate 13 Democratic held seats as Democrat Favored, 19 as Leans Democrat, and 5 as No Clear Favorite.

199 Democratic seats and 141 Republican seats are rated as safe for the incumbent party.  Or if you prefer, a minimum of 78.2% of House seats will remain unchanged.

Don't get me started about CQ ratings... Today they inexplicably moved TX-22 from No Clear Favorite to Leans Democratic. Was the rating based on some change on the basic dynamics of the race? No. It was just some arbitrary switch. CQ also has MN Senate as No Clear Favorite, which is out of whack with other prognosticating publications.

My rankings of the House and Senate rankers:

1. Cook
2. Rothenberg
3. Sabato
4. CQ

[Mr.Phips]

"We won't win all 75 seats where Republican incumbents show an under-40 percent re-elect number in polls." 75 GOP incumbents are polling below 40% reelect? Am I the only person who thinks that number seems fishy?

This is completely unrelated to poll results but CQ Politics currently lists 21 GOP seats as Republican Favored, 23 as Leans Republican, 9 as No Clear Favorite, 4 as Leans Democrat, and 1 as Democrat Favored.  Thats a total of 58 seats that CQ views as Democratic gains or potential gains.  Not quite the 75 mentioned but still a rather large sampling IMO.

For comparison, they rate 13 Democratic held seats as Democrat Favored, 19 as Leans Democrat, and 5 as No Clear Favorite.

199 Democratic seats and 141 Republican seats are rated as safe for the incumbent party.  Or if you prefer, a minimum of 78.2% of House seats will remain unchanged.

Don't get me started about CQ ratings... Today they inexplicably moved TX-22 from No Clear Favorite to Leans Democratic. Was the rating based on some change on the basic dynamics of the race? No. It was just some arbitrary switch. CQ also has MN Senate as No Clear Favorite, which is out of whack with other prognosticating publications.

I actually believe they moved TX-22 from Lean Dem to No Clear Favorite. 

[MarkWarner08]

"We won't win all 75 seats where Republican incumbents show an under-40 percent re-elect number in polls." 75 GOP incumbents are polling below 40% reelect? Am I the only person who thinks that number seems fishy?

This is completely unrelated to poll results but CQ Politics currently lists 21 GOP seats as Republican Favored, 23 as Leans Republican, 9 as No Clear Favorite, 4 as Leans Democrat, and 1 as Democrat Favored.  Thats a total of 58 seats that CQ views as Democratic gains or potential gains.  Not quite the 75 mentioned but still a rather large sampling IMO.

For comparison, they rate 13 Democratic held seats as Democrat Favored, 19 as Leans Democrat, and 5 as No Clear Favorite.

199 Democratic seats and 141 Republican seats are rated as safe for the incumbent party.  Or if you prefer, a minimum of 78.2% of House seats will remain unchanged.

Don't get me started about CQ ratings... Today they inexplicably moved TX-22 from No Clear Favorite to Leans Democratic. Was the rating based on some change on the basic dynamics of the race? No. It was just some arbitrary switch. CQ also has MN Senate as No Clear Favorite, which is out of whack with other prognosticating publications.

I actually believe they moved TX-22 from Lean Dem to No Clear Favorite. 

I just re-checked the site and you're right. Thanks for pointing that out.  That still doesn't excuse them for not downgrading MN-Sen, yet.

Edit: I saw the No Clear Favorite next to TX-22 and assumed that it had always been in that category.  I don't understand why for months CQ had  FL-16  at NCF and TX-22 at Leans Democratic.

[Mr.Phips]

"We won't win all 75 seats where Republican incumbents show an under-40 percent re-elect number in polls." 75 GOP incumbents are polling below 40% reelect? Am I the only person who thinks that number seems fishy?

This is completely unrelated to poll results but CQ Politics currently lists 21 GOP seats as Republican Favored, 23 as Leans Republican, 9 as No Clear Favorite, 4 as Leans Democrat, and 1 as Democrat Favored.  Thats a total of 58 seats that CQ views as Democratic gains or potential gains.  Not quite the 75 mentioned but still a rather large sampling IMO.

For comparison, they rate 13 Democratic held seats as Democrat Favored, 19 as Leans Democrat, and 5 as No Clear Favorite.

199 Democratic seats and 141 Republican seats are rated as safe for the incumbent party.  Or if you prefer, a minimum of 78.2% of House seats will remain unchanged.

Don't get me started about CQ ratings... Today they inexplicably moved TX-22 from No Clear Favorite to Leans Democratic. Was the rating based on some change on the basic dynamics of the race? No. It was just some arbitrary switch. CQ also has MN Senate as No Clear Favorite, which is out of whack with other prognosticating publications.

I actually believe they moved TX-22 from Lean Dem to No Clear Favorite. 

I just re-checked the site and you're right. Thanks for pointing that out.  That still doesn't excuse them for not downgrading MN-Sen, yet.

Edit: I saw the No Clear Favorite next to TX-22 and assumed that it had always been in that category.  I don't understand why for months CQ had  FL-16  at NCF and TX-22 at Leans Democratic.

FL-16 is actually beginning to look better for Democrats. 

[MarkWarner08]

"We won't win all 75 seats where Republican incumbents show an under-40 percent re-elect number in polls." 75 GOP incumbents are polling below 40% reelect? Am I the only person who thinks that number seems fishy?

This is completely unrelated to poll results but CQ Politics currently lists 21 GOP seats as Republican Favored, 23 as Leans Republican, 9 as No Clear Favorite, 4 as Leans Democrat, and 1 as Democrat Favored.  Thats a total of 58 seats that CQ views as Democratic gains or potential gains.  Not quite the 75 mentioned but still a rather large sampling IMO.

For comparison, they rate 13 Democratic held seats as Democrat Favored, 19 as Leans Democrat, and 5 as No Clear Favorite.

199 Democratic seats and 141 Republican seats are rated as safe for the incumbent party.  Or if you prefer, a minimum of 78.2% of House seats will remain unchanged.

Don't get me started about CQ ratings... Today they inexplicably moved TX-22 from No Clear Favorite to Leans Democratic. Was the rating based on some change on the basic dynamics of the race? No. It was just some arbitrary switch. CQ also has MN Senate as No Clear Favorite, which is out of whack with other prognosticating publications.

I actually believe they moved TX-22 from Lean Dem to No Clear Favorite. 

I just re-checked the site and you're right. Thanks for pointing that out.  That still doesn't excuse them for not downgrading MN-Sen, yet.

Edit: I saw the No Clear Favorite next to TX-22 and assumed that it had always been in that category.  I don't understand why for months CQ had  FL-16  at NCF and TX-22 at Leans Democratic.

FL-16 is actually beginning to look better for Democrats. 

Yeah. I just can't handicap the GOP primary. Rooney seems like the favorite, but Valeche is spending tons of money on TV ads. Regardless of who the GOP picks, the outcome will probably be decided by 4% or less.

[Mr.Phips]

"We won't win all 75 seats where Republican incumbents show an under-40 percent re-elect number in polls." 75 GOP incumbents are polling below 40% reelect? Am I the only person who thinks that number seems fishy?

This is completely unrelated to poll results but CQ Politics currently lists 21 GOP seats as Republican Favored, 23 as Leans Republican, 9 as No Clear Favorite, 4 as Leans Democrat, and 1 as Democrat Favored.  Thats a total of 58 seats that CQ views as Democratic gains or potential gains.  Not quite the 75 mentioned but still a rather large sampling IMO.

For comparison, they rate 13 Democratic held seats as Democrat Favored, 19 as Leans Democrat, and 5 as No Clear Favorite.

199 Democratic seats and 141 Republican seats are rated as safe for the incumbent party.  Or if you prefer, a minimum of 78.2% of House seats will remain unchanged.

Don't get me started about CQ ratings... Today they inexplicably moved TX-22 from No Clear Favorite to Leans Democratic. Was the rating based on some change on the basic dynamics of the race? No. It was just some arbitrary switch. CQ also has MN Senate as No Clear Favorite, which is out of whack with other prognosticating publications.

I actually believe they moved TX-22 from Lean Dem to No Clear Favorite. 

I just re-checked the site and you're right. Thanks for pointing that out.  That still doesn't excuse them for not downgrading MN-Sen, yet.

Edit: I saw the No Clear Favorite next to TX-22 and assumed that it had always been in that category.  I don't understand why for months CQ had  FL-16  at NCF and TX-22 at Leans Democratic.

FL-16 is actually beginning to look better for Democrats. 

Yeah. I just can't handicap the GOP primary. Rooney seems like the favorite, but Valeche is spending tons of money on TV ads. Regardless of who the GOP picks, the outcome will probably be decided by 4% or less.

Its gonna be very close.  One thing that people forget is that this district was drawn to be a Democratic seat back in the 1981 redistricting, and the district territory has stayed pretty much the same since.  The only difference is that the district gained some of Charlotte county and dropped some of Palm Beach since.  Obviously, voting patterns have changed since 1982, but if any thing in this part of Florida, they have gotten more Democratic. 

[Padfoot]

"We won't win all 75 seats where Republican incumbents show an under-40 percent re-elect number in polls." 75 GOP incumbents are polling below 40% reelect? Am I the only person who thinks that number seems fishy?

This is completely unrelated to poll results but CQ Politics currently lists 21 GOP seats as Republican Favored, 23 as Leans Republican, 9 as No Clear Favorite, 4 as Leans Democrat, and 1 as Democrat Favored.  Thats a total of 58 seats that CQ views as Democratic gains or potential gains.  Not quite the 75 mentioned but still a rather large sampling IMO.

For comparison, they rate 13 Democratic held seats as Democrat Favored, 19 as Leans Democrat, and 5 as No Clear Favorite.

199 Democratic seats and 141 Republican seats are rated as safe for the incumbent party.  Or if you prefer, a minimum of 78.2% of House seats will remain unchanged.

Don't get me started about CQ ratings... Today they inexplicably moved TX-22 from No Clear Favorite to Leans Democratic. Was the rating based on some change on the basic dynamics of the race? No. It was just some arbitrary switch. CQ also has MN Senate as No Clear Favorite, which is out of whack with other prognosticating publications.

My rankings of the House and Senate rankers:

1. Cook
2. Rothenberg
3. Sabato
4. CQ

Actually, they switched that one last Sunday: http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmspage.cfm?docID=news-000002921763

[MarkWarner08]

"We won't win all 75 seats where Republican incumbents show an under-40 percent re-elect number in polls." 75 GOP incumbents are polling below 40% reelect? Am I the only person who thinks that number seems fishy?

This is completely unrelated to poll results but CQ Politics currently lists 21 GOP seats as Republican Favored, 23 as Leans Republican, 9 as No Clear Favorite, 4 as Leans Democrat, and 1 as Democrat Favored.  Thats a total of 58 seats that CQ views as Democratic gains or potential gains.  Not quite the 75 mentioned but still a rather large sampling IMO.

For comparison, they rate 13 Democratic held seats as Democrat Favored, 19 as Leans Democrat, and 5 as No Clear Favorite.

199 Democratic seats and 141 Republican seats are rated as safe for the incumbent party.  Or if you prefer, a minimum of 78.2% of House seats will remain unchanged.

Don't get me started about CQ ratings... Today they inexplicably moved TX-22 from No Clear Favorite to Leans Democratic. Was the rating based on some change on the basic dynamics of the race? No. It was just some arbitrary switch. CQ also has MN Senate as No Clear Favorite, which is out of whack with other prognosticating publications.

My rankings of the House and Senate rankers:

1. Cook
2. Rothenberg
3. Sabato
4. CQ

Actually, they switched that one last Sunday: http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmspage.cfm?docID=news-000002921763

Only a few months late on that one. I could nitpick a few more of there ratings. PA-06 in Leans Republican, for example, seems like a vestige from the '06 campaign. Gerlach faces a third-rate Democrat who has received minimal support from the D-trip. If CQ thinks it's an upset possibility because of the top-ticket atmospherics, they should move it Likely Republican. I don't even include it in my top 41 races.