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| |-+  Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections (Moderator: Joe Republic)
| | |-+  Vermont gubernatorial election, 2008
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Poll
Question: Which candidate do you support?
Anthony Pollina (Progressive)   -11 (26.2%)
Gaye Symington (Democrat)   -11 (26.2%)
Jim Douglas (Republican)   -20 (47.6%)
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Total Voters: 42

Author Topic: Vermont gubernatorial election, 2008  (Read 9570 times)
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« on: July 25, 2008, 08:15:52 pm »
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Note that all three of these candidates are considered to be "major party" candidates in Vermont. The Vermont Progressive Party elected a mayor in Burlington (the largest city in the state), and has six seats in the Vermont House of Representatives. It is the strongest minor party in any individual US state.

Who do you support? Who do you think will win?

This election is notable, because Anthony Pollina of the Progressives has a chance of winning. However, the Democrat would have to do very poorly for him to win.
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« Reply #1 on: July 25, 2008, 08:36:07 pm »
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How does Vermont's system work? Straight plurality?
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« Reply #2 on: July 25, 2008, 08:51:39 pm »
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How does Vermont's system work? Straight plurality?

Yes. Personally, while Pollina may well take second, I can't see Douglas losing reelection to divided opposition.
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« Reply #3 on: July 25, 2008, 08:59:09 pm »
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How does Vermont's system work? Straight plurality?

Yes. Personally, while Pollina may well take second, I can't see Douglas losing reelection to divided opposition.

Ah. In that case, I must be confusing it with some other state. Which one had the provision that mandates election by the legislature if no candidate reaches 50%?
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« Reply #4 on: July 25, 2008, 09:05:51 pm »
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Hmm, interesting. Last I heard, (this was a few months ago) Pollina was trying to form some kind of deal with the Democrats to get them to not run a candidate and endorse him. I guess that must have fallen through.
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« Reply #5 on: July 25, 2008, 09:15:21 pm »
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How does Vermont's system work? Straight plurality?

Yes. Personally, while Pollina may well take second, I can't see Douglas losing reelection to divided opposition.

Ah. In that case, I must be confusing it with some other state. Which one had the provision that mandates election by the legislature if no candidate reaches 50%?

Oh, no, maybe that is Vermont. I was just thinking of those using run-offs. There might be serious infighting within the Democrats over whether to support Douglas or Pollina in the event of that choice, though (partially because supporting Pollina would mean a stronger VT Progressive Party in the future, which is dangerous to them).
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« Reply #6 on: July 25, 2008, 09:23:12 pm »
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Apparently Pollina recently decided to be listed on the ballot as "independent" rather than Progressive. However, he also says that isn't abandoning his party either: http://www.anthonypollina.com/news/2008/07/21/building-an-independent-coalition/

BTW, Douglas won with around 45% of the vote in 2002.
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« Reply #7 on: July 25, 2008, 10:24:39 pm »
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Apparently Pollina recently decided to be listed on the ballot as "independent" rather than Progressive. However, he also says that isn't abandoning his party either: http://www.anthonypollina.com/news/2008/07/21/building-an-independent-coalition/

BTW, Douglas won with around 45% of the vote in 2002.

in 2002, his opponent allowed the vote to stand and conceded.  but he could have taken it to the legislature.

anyway, i support douglas.
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« Reply #8 on: July 25, 2008, 10:30:35 pm »
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Is Douglas in trouble or something. I thought he was a lock.
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« Reply #9 on: July 25, 2008, 10:40:02 pm »
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Apparently Pollina recently decided to be listed on the ballot as "independent" rather than Progressive. However, he also says that isn't abandoning his party either: http://www.anthonypollina.com/news/2008/07/21/building-an-independent-coalition/

BTW, Douglas won with around 45% of the vote in 2002.

in 2002, his opponent allowed the vote to stand and conceded.  but he could have taken it to the legislature.

anyway, i support douglas.

Republicans controlled the state legislature in 2002 anyway, I'm pretty sure.
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« Reply #10 on: July 25, 2008, 10:54:21 pm »
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Douglas saved his bacon (or tofurky, this being VT) by vetoeing that IRV bill. But it's not over yet. If Douglas falls below 50%, the D leg. will pick Symington.
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« Reply #11 on: July 25, 2008, 10:57:24 pm »
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Douglas saved his bacon (or tofurky, this being VT) by vetoeing that IRV bill. But it's not over yet. If Douglas falls below 50%, the D leg. will pick Symington.

Especially because she's Speaker of the House.
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« Reply #12 on: July 25, 2008, 10:58:34 pm »
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Apparently Pollina recently decided to be listed on the ballot as "independent" rather than Progressive. However, he also says that isn't abandoning his party either: http://www.anthonypollina.com/news/2008/07/21/building-an-independent-coalition/

BTW, Douglas won with around 45% of the vote in 2002.

Going into that election, the Republicans had an overall majority in the Legislature and I guess were expected to keep it.  Douglas's Democratic opponent, somebody Racine, pledged not to seek election by the Legislature if he failed to receive a majority.  Perhaps he assumed the Republicans would keep overall control of the Legislature and elect Douglas anyway, and he didn't want Vermont to be bitterly divided over the outcome.  Racine led in the polls throughout most if not all of the campaign I believe, but below 50% at least towards the end.  As it turned out, the Democrats won an overall majority in the Legislature in the 2002 elections and it was that Legislature who would choose the governor if no candidate received a majority.  (I'm not sure if the candidates other than the top two could have been selected, particularly if one of the two dropped out; could the Legislature have elected Cornellius (sp?) Hogan if they had wanted to?)  But Racine kept his word (and he had lost the popular vote, 42% to 45%, which was, according to the Almanacs of American Politics from 2004 on, "something of a surprise") and Douglas became governor.  Douglas got 59% of the vote in 2004 and 56% in 2006, so Vermont's 50% rule hasn't mattered.  Howard Dean only barely got 50.45% of the vote in 2000 when the Republicans gained an overall majority in the Legislature, and as zealous as the Republican base was in Vermont in 2000, if .46% of the vote had gone from Dean to Anthony Pollina I doubt it would have mattered that Dean polled over 12% more than Ruth Dwyer and that the Dean + Pollina vote (Pollina had run to Dean's left) was over 60%.  Dwyer might well have lost in 2002 though, and the Democrats might have controlled everything in Vermont right now.  They probably will after Douglas retires, not that I think he's safe now.

Well, in the time I took writing this post the basic point I was making was made, but I spent to much time not to post it.
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« Reply #13 on: July 26, 2008, 01:40:30 am »
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Well that is good to know. Hopefully that will weaken the urge amongst some left-wing voters to vote for the "lesser-evil" Democrat rather than Pollina. I'd also like to see Douglas defeated as well, because he vetoed IRV and the NPVIC.
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« Reply #14 on: July 26, 2008, 01:50:55 am »
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Well that is good to know. Hopefully that will weaken the urge amongst some left-wing voters to vote for the "lesser-evil" Democrat rather than Pollina. I'd also like to see Douglas defeated as well, because he vetoed IRV and the NPVIC.

Yes, that's what bugs me about Douglas. The rest is fine, but those vetoes: yuck.
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« Reply #15 on: July 26, 2008, 02:28:18 am »
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Douglas saved his bacon (or tofurky, this being VT) by vetoeing that IRV bill. But it's not over yet. If Douglas falls below 50%, the D leg. will pick Symington.

Vermont Democrats couldn't possibly be that stupid.
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« Reply #16 on: July 26, 2008, 12:22:20 pm »
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Note: Pollina pulled 9.5% in 2000 against Howard Dean.
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« Reply #17 on: July 26, 2008, 01:08:46 pm »
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Douglas saved his bacon (or tofurky, this being VT) by vetoeing that IRV bill. But it's not over yet. If Douglas falls below 50%, the D leg. will pick Symington.

Vermont Democrats couldn't possibly be that stupid.
So it would be more intelligent for them to back the incumbent Republican or an independent?
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« Reply #18 on: July 26, 2008, 01:37:31 pm »
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I know this has nothing to do with the Gubernatorial Election but I think that the Vermont Progressives should consider being part of the Greens. You know, smaller states are easier to start with because you don't need that much money for advertising and you don't need that many votes.
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« Reply #19 on: July 26, 2008, 01:53:44 pm »
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I know this has nothing to do with the Gubernatorial Election but I think that the Vermont Progressives should consider being part of the Greens. You know, smaller states are easier to start with because you don't need that much money for advertising and you don't need that many votes.

Joining the Greens would be jumping the shark, causing a complete loss of relevance. Nobody likes the Greens. They're still the Ralph Nader party.
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« Reply #20 on: July 26, 2008, 03:07:51 pm »
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I know this has nothing to do with the Gubernatorial Election but I think that the Vermont Progressives should consider being part of the Greens. You know, smaller states are easier to start with because you don't need that much money for advertising and you don't need that many votes.

They can't do that -- they actually have elected officeholders.
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« Reply #21 on: July 26, 2008, 04:14:24 pm »
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I know this has nothing to do with the Gubernatorial Election but I think that the Vermont Progressives should consider being part of the Greens. You know, smaller states are easier to start with because you don't need that much money for advertising and you don't need that many votes.

No party wants to go down the road of joke-party status and irrelevance.
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« Reply #22 on: July 26, 2008, 04:26:03 pm »
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They can't do that -- they actually have elected officeholders.

Actually, the Green Party has around 230 elected officials nationwide, including the mayor of a city in California with over 100,000 people (Richmond).

That being said, I do not see the point in having the Vermont Progressives (or the Working Families Party) merge with the Greens currently. If there was PR and party lists for parliamentary elections in the US, then it would make sense though.
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« Reply #23 on: July 26, 2008, 04:59:42 pm »
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Douglas saved his bacon (or tofurky, this being VT) by vetoeing that IRV bill. But it's not over yet. If Douglas falls below 50%, the D leg. will pick Symington.

Vermont Democrats couldn't possibly be that stupid.
So it would be more intelligent for them to back the incumbent Republican or an independent?

It would be more intelligent to support whomever gets the most popular votes, no?
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« Reply #24 on: July 26, 2008, 05:10:01 pm »
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It would be more intelligent to support whomever gets the most popular votes, no?

No, if Anthony Pollina and Gaye Symington receive more votes combined than Jim Douglas, then it is clear that the majority of the voters wanted to elect someone to the left of Douglas. Therefore, in that case, the legislature should give the seat to Symington or Pollina.
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