Germany Election Maps

[Χahar]

A red-red-green coalition would be the best-case scenario.

[Bro-mentum]

The SPD working with the Left party at national level would be seen as too controversial, given the latter advocate withdrawing from NATO. They are (or were, not sure)  coalition partners in Berlin but that itself was very controversial.

[Old Europe]

They are (or were, not sure)  coalition partners in Berlin but that itself was very controversial.

They are in Berlin, they were in Mecklenburg.

[Vasall des Midas]

The SPD is struggling due to the Grand Coalition and have lost a lot of support to the Left Party and (to a lesser extent) to the Greens.

And to non-voters.

The CDU has better held its support, but some have accused Merkel of running to the left of the SPD (or else have accused the SPD of running to the right of Merkel), making support fo the major parties somewhat confused.

Don't listen to silly journalists, nobody but them is suffering from any delusions on this front. What is true is that Merkel is personally quite popular among the kind of voter likely to stay true to the SPD - although I totally fail to understand why - but it doesn't seem as if that popularity is going to translate into votes.

Current polls suggest that a CDU-FDP coalition might be possible after the next election, but more likely is another result with no obvious coalition emerging, which might force the SPD to work with the Left Party in an SPD-Green-Left coalition.

Unlikely for now. Will of course happen eventually, but the SPD still has a steep facts-of-life-accepting curve ahead of it. More likely is a renewed Grand Coalition, with much weakened SPD, or god forbid, a "Jamaican" coalition of CDU, CSU and FDP with an emasculated Green figleaf. Such a course for the Greens would have the potential to be suicidal, but sadly cannot be wholly ruled out. A "traffic light" (SPD-Green-FDP) coalition would make a certain amount of sense, obviously (at least if you believe the FDP to be to the left of the CDU, which except on a number of social issues I consider to be, basically, bollocks. Oh well...) but is even less likely.

CDU/CSU: 34%
SPD: 25%
Left: 14%
Green: 12%
FDP: 12%
Others: 3%

A lot depends on turnout. If turnout is at ordinary levels, I don't really see much chance, given demographic trends and changes in economic and political climate, of CDU-CSU-FDP repeating (let alone increasing) their 2005 take. They usually go down in the polls late in campaigns, and there's a good reason for it.
Turnout depends, in turn, on SPD strategy. SPD voters, more than any other party's, need to be provided with something to vote for... both in the sense of vision / visible difference from the CDU (which rules out a run to the right, unless the CDU/CSU stupidly does the same, as in 1980), and in terms of looking like they have a chance (which limits the possibilities of running to the left. ) and, crucially, looking united and like they know what they're doing.

All of which means I'm somewhat pessimistic about turnout and about the eventual SPD result right now, and not at all inclined to rule out a CDU-CSU-FDP majority after the elections.

[Sibboleth]

2008 Hamburg elections

[Χahar]

What is the super-CDU area in the center?

You may want to change the thread title, BTW.

[Sibboleth]

What is the super-CDU area in the center?

Hafen City which is, I think, the Hamburg version of the Docklands in London (not sure if you'll get the reference. Google LDDC if you don't).

[Hashemite]

What's that ward where Die Linke broke 20%?

[Χahar]

What is the super-CDU area in the center?

Hafen City which is, I think, the Hamburg version of the Docklands in London (not sure if you'll get the reference. Google LDDC if you don't).

I didn't, actually. But I do now. What's the other adjoining blue area?

[Vasall des Midas]

What is the super-CDU area in the center?

Hafen City which is, I think, the Hamburg version of the Docklands in London (not sure if you'll get the reference. Google LDDC if you don't).

I didn't, actually. But I do now. What's the other adjoining blue area?

Hamburg Old Town. Ie the Hamburg version of the City of London, except more shopping-oriented - I wonder where, exactly, the handful of residents are living, but wherever it is it's obviously in very posh accomodation.

What's that ward where Die Linke broke 20%?

Off the top of my head, either this is Veddel - couple of blocks of very working class but perfectly normal looking, old growth, housing surrounded by port/warehousing/etc surroundings for kilometers on end in every direction. Or Veddel is the one just to the east of it, in which case this is port/warehousing etc with a very small no. of inhabitants interspersed over the area.

[checks map] Veddel is the one to the east. The total pop. of the area is 1400, mostly towards the eastern side. (The Old Town's is about 1500.)

[Sibboleth]

2003 party vote maps. Not sure whether it's the second vote or both the second and first votes combined. Either way, the Bavarian elections site is awful.

[Sibboleth]

[Hashemite]

A Linke map would be amusing

[Χahar]

It's very difficult to tell apart the SPD and Linke on that map.

[Hashemite]

It's very difficult to tell apart the SPD and Linke on that map.

Not really, save for the very lighter shades.

[Χahar]

It's very difficult to tell apart the SPD and Linke on that map.

Not really, save for the very lighter shades.

That, or I'm going color-blind.

[Vasall des Midas]

Not "very" difficult, but not extremely easy either.

Anyways, Al uses a shade of red for the Left that strongly connotes SPD to me, because the SPD actually has used that particular shade in the past. He should do what the Germans do and use purple for the Left.

[Sibboleth]

Anyways, Al uses a shade of red for the Left that strongly connotes SPD to me, because the SPD actually has used that particular shade in the past.

lol

He should do what the Germans do and use purple for the Left.

Mmm... trouble is I tend to associate purple with a certain British political party of the 1980's...

But I'll probably change the winning-party colour to purple anyway; the reddish-orange is harder to tell from the rose-ish red then it looked last night.

[Hashemite]

[Hashemite]

[Sibboleth]

Hmm.

While working on the secondvote maps for Berlin, I noticed that that general rusty-red shade turns "quite" brownish when it gets dark. Hmm. Just looks offensive, even though it's not supposed to be.

I'll switch the Left colour to purple then; but, in order to demonstrate that I've not totally given in to the forces of sanity, only in the East

[Sibboleth]

Secondvote maps

[Hashemite]

Those are great maps!

[Χahar]

The Linke vote is interesting. Entirely predictable, of course, but interesting.

[Ghyl Tarvoke]

Talk about a city divided...