Who will be the next new Senator in each state?

[The Mikado]

Some are easy, some are really tough.  Tell you what.  You guys post your lists and I'll comment on them later.

AL
AK
AZ-Remember both if McCain wins and if he loses
AR
CA
CO-Mark Udall
CT
DE
FL
GA
HI
ID-Jim Risch
IL
IN
IA
KS
KY
LA
ME
MD
MA
MI
MN
MS
MO
MT
NE-Mike Johanns
NV
NH-Jeanne Shaheen
NJ
NM-Tom Udall
NY
NC
ND
OH
OK
OR
PA
RI
SC
SD
TN
TX
UT
VT
VA-Mark Warner
WA
WV
WI
WY

[MarkWarner08]

Isn't it a wee bit early for this?  AK, MS, LA, OR, MN, ME, NC, and KY could all break against the incumbent.  Of course there are so many micro and macro factors affecting these races  that it's a masochistic task to predict them in July. Ask me again this time in October, and I'll have a nice list up for you.

[Dan the Roman]

AL
AK
AZ-Remember both if McCain wins and if he loses
AR
CA
CO-Mark Udall
CT - Chris Murphy
DE
FL - Alex Sink
GA
HI
ID-Jim Risch
IL - Lisa Madigan
IN
IA
KS
KY - Ben Chandler(or Trey Grayson hard to say who wins in 2010)
LA
ME
MD - Chris Van Hollen
MA - Martha Coakley
MI
MN
MS
MO
MT
NE-Mike Johanns
NV
NH-Jeanne Shaheen
NJ
NM-Tom Udall
NY
NC - Brad Miller
ND
OH - Tim Ryan
OK
OR
PA - Patrick Murphy
RI
SC
SD
TN
TX - David Dewhurst
UT
VT - Peter Welch
VA-Mark Warner
WA
WV -
WI
WY

Some early thoughts.

[Josh/Devilman88]

AL
AK
AZ-Remember both if McCain wins and if he loses
AR
CA
CO-Mark Udall
CT - Chris Murphy
DE
FL - Alex Sink
GA
HI
ID-Jim Risch
IL - Lisa Madigan
IN
IA
KS
KY - Ben Chandler(or Trey Grayson hard to say who wins in 2010)
LA
ME
MD - Chris Van Hollen
MA - Martha Coakley
MI
MN
MS
MO
MT
NE-Mike Johanns
NV
NH-Jeanne Shaheen
NJ
NM-Tom Udall
NY
NC - Brad Miller
ND
OH - Tim Ryan
OK
OR
PA - Patrick Murphy
RI
SC
SD
TN
TX - David Dewhurst
UT
VT - Peter Welch
VA-Mark Warner
WA
WV -
WI
WY

Some early thoughts.

Brad Miller isn't running in 2008.. its Dole vs Hagan.

[The Mikado]

AL
AK
AZ-Remember both if McCain wins and if he loses
AR
CA
CO-Mark Udall
CT - Chris Murphy
DE
FL - Alex Sink
GA
HI
ID-Jim Risch
IL - Lisa Madigan
IN
IA
KS
KY - Ben Chandler(or Trey Grayson hard to say who wins in 2010)
LA
ME
MD - Chris Van Hollen
MA - Martha Coakley
MI
MN
MS
MO
MT
NE-Mike Johanns
NV
NH-Jeanne Shaheen
NJ
NM-Tom Udall
NY
NC - Brad Miller
ND
OH - Tim Ryan
OK
OR
PA - Patrick Murphy
RI
SC
SD
TN
TX - David Dewhurst
UT
VT - Peter Welch
VA-Mark Warner
WA
WV -
WI
WY

Some early thoughts.

Brad Miller isn't running in 2008.. its Dole vs Hagan.

What I was asking was the eventual next senator who isn't an incumbent from that state.  For example, California could be Boxer-Feinstein for decades to come, but who will replace one of them?

[Josh/Devilman88]

AL
AK
AZ-Remember both if McCain wins and if he loses
AR
CA
CO-Mark Udall
CT - Chris Murphy
DE
FL - Alex Sink
GA
HI
ID-Jim Risch
IL - Lisa Madigan
IN
IA
KS
KY - Ben Chandler(or Trey Grayson hard to say who wins in 2010)
LA
ME
MD - Chris Van Hollen
MA - Martha Coakley
MI
MN
MS
MO
MT
NE-Mike Johanns
NV
NH-Jeanne Shaheen
NJ
NM-Tom Udall
NY
NC - Brad Miller
ND
OH - Tim Ryan
OK
OR
PA - Patrick Murphy
RI
SC
SD
TN
TX - David Dewhurst
UT
VT - Peter Welch
VA-Mark Warner
WA
WV -
WI
WY

Some early thoughts.

Brad Miller isn't running in 2008.. its Dole vs Hagan.

What I was asking was the eventual next senator who isn't an incumbent from that state.  For example, California could be Boxer-Feinstein for decades to come, but who will replace one of them?

Ah I see, I'm sorry.

[Lief 🗽]

TX - David Dewhurst

ohgod no

[Brittain33]

SC - probably still in utero

[Dan the Roman]

TX - David Dewhurst

ohgod no

Just a terrifying hunch.

[Sensei]

FL- Debbie Wasserman-Schultz

[Joe Biden 2020]

OK -- Brad Henry (elected in either 2010, 2014 or 2016).

[The Mikado]

TX - David Dewhurst

ohgod no

It's going to happen.  When Governor Hutchison takes office (don't you dare say the TX Democratic Party will beat her in 2010), she'll appoint Dewhurst as her successor.  There'll be a special election in 2011, but he'll be going in as the incumbent.

[jokerman]

Arkansas is tricky.  Both Senators could hang on to their seats for a long time, but Lt. Gov (and former Clinton admin. official) Bill Halter is ambitious and young enough to wait out for a spot.  Then you've also got Att. Genl. Dustin McDaniel.  He has wider appeal than than Halter (though a primary race between the two would be close), but right now he's lining up to suceed Beebe in the 2014 election.

[Flying Dog]

Michigan: Candice Miller, Bart Stupak or Mike Rogers.

[Downwinder]

UT- Mike Leavitt

[DownWithTheLeft]

I'll make some bold predictions for each state, and years, used current positions:

AL: Rep. Mike Rogers (R) (Shelby retires in 2012)
AK: St. Sen. Ben Stevens (R) (takes over for dad in 2014)
AZ: Rep. Gabrielle Giffords (D) (appointed after McCain wins)
AR: More than 10 years
CA: Gov. Arnold Schwarenegger (R) (wins in 2012)
CO: Bob Schaffer (R) (no explanation needed)
CT: St. Sen. John McKinney (R) (appointed by Rell w/Lieberman in Mac's cabinet)
DE: AG Beau Biden (D) (takes over for dad eventually)
FL: Rep. Connie Mack IV (R) (defeats Bill Nelson in 2012)
GA: More than 10 years
HI: possibly Gov. Lingle, but only if someone retires
ID: Lt. Gov. Jim Risch (no explanation needed)
IL: More than 10 years
IN: Rep. Brads Ellsworth (D) (Lugar retires in 2012)
IA: More than 10 years, barring retirement
KS: Rep. Jerry Moran (R) (replaces Brownback in 2010)
KY: Rep. Ben Chandler (D) (defs. Bunning)
LA: John Kennedy (R) (defs. Landrieu)
ME: more than 10 years
MD: more than 10 years, (Steele v. congressional Dem if retirement)
MA: Rep. Ed Markey (D) (except Markey v. Curt Schilling)
MI: more than 10 years
MN: more than 10 years
MS: more than 10 years, barring retirement
MO: Rep. Sam Graves (R) (defs. McCaskill)
MT: Fmr. Gov. Marc Racicot (R) (defs. Tester)
NE: Fmr. Gov. Mike Johnans (no explaination needed)
NV: more than 10 years
NH: someone unknown (possibly Sununu loss)
NJ: Freeholder John Murphy (R) (defs. Menendez in 2012)
NM: Rep. Tom Udall (no explanation needed)
NY: more than 10 years
NC: more than 10 years
ND: more than 10 years, barring retirement
OH: more than 10 years, barring retirement
OK: more than 10 years
OR: more than 10 years
PA: someone who beats Specter in 2010
RI: more than 10 yeras
SC: more than 10 years
SD: more than 10 years, barring retirment
TN: more than 10 years
TX: more than 10 years
UT: more than 10 years
VT: more than 10 years, barring 2 possible retirements
VA: Fmr. Gov. Mark Warner (no explanation needed)
WA: more than 10 years
WV: Rep. Shelley Capito Moore (once Byrd is gone)
WI: more than 10 years
WY: more than 10 years

[Brittain33]

This is a fun exercise, but think of it this way, how many of the senators elected since 1999 would have been on our lists if we'd done it then? Not many, I think. Lindsey Graham, yes, perhaps Mark Pryor and John Cornyn, but what about Martinez, Dole, Chambliss, Tester, McCaskill, Klobuchar...?

Either we hadn't heard about them, or we'd have thought the seat would have gone to the other party (Mark Kennedy?), or they seemed on a different trajectory.  Bush recruited a lot of unlikely candidates who are now senators.

[muon2]

DWTL lists IL as more than 10 years. Of course that assumes a McCain victory. Needless to say there has been a lot of speculation about who Blagojevich would appoint if Obama wins, which would probably happen shortly after the election to gain seniority. Tammy Duckworth is mentioned frequently if no consensus black candidate is available. Here's one recent news article that sums up the current speculation.

[7,052,770]

MS - Ronnie Musgrove

[MarkWarner08]

This is a fun exercise, but think of it this way, how many of the senators elected since 1999 would have been on our lists if we'd done it then? Not many, I think. Lindsey Graham, yes, perhaps Mark Pryor and John Cornyn, but what about Martinez, Dole, Chambliss, Tester, McCaskill, Klobuchar...?

Either we hadn't heard about them, or we'd have thought the seat would have gone to the other party (Mark Kennedy?), or they seemed on a different trajectory.  Bush Karl Rove and Ken Mehlman recruited a lot of unlikely candidates who are now senators.

Rove and Mehlman scouted the candidates and did the legwork. If it had been up to Bush, he would've played Solitare on his computer (as he did when aides informed him of death penalty appeal cases in Texas) instead of calling the likes of Norm Coleman and Saxby Chambliss.

[Josh/Devilman88]

Oh, BTW, NC-Kay Hagan.

[DownWithTheLeft]

^^

Josh has finally made it official he be the stupidest person to ever walk the planet

[Flying Dog]

^^

Josh has finally made it official he be the stupidest person to ever walk the planet

What? Do you hover or something?

[TeePee4Prez]

FL- Debbie Wasserman-Schultz

Wishful thinking!

[MarkWarner08]

I'll make some bold predictions for each state, and years, used current positions:
AK: St. Sen. Ben Stevens (R) (takes over for dad in 2014)

State Sen. Stevens is currently entangled in an FBI corruption investigation. Even if he weren't likely to be indicted, Stevens' last name would be enough to disqualify him. (Remember, nepotism is still a salient issue in Alaska.)