Who will be the next new Senator in each state?

[Flying Dog]

I'll make some bold predictions for each state, and years, used current positions:
AK: St. Sen. Ben Stevens (R) (takes over for dad in 2014)

State Sen. Stevens is currently entangled in an FBI corruption investigation. Even if he weren't likely to be indicted, Stevens' last name would be enough to disqualify him. (Remember, nepotism is still a salient issue in Alaska.)

O.K. What Republicans isn't tied up in some scandal that is from Alaska?

[Dan the Roman]

I'll make some bold predictions for each state, and years, used current positions:
AK: St. Sen. Ben Stevens (R) (takes over for dad in 2014)

State Sen. Stevens is currently entangled in an FBI corruption investigation. Even if he weren't likely to be indicted, Stevens' last name would be enough to disqualify him. (Remember, nepotism is still a salient issue in Alaska.)

O.K. What Republicans isn't tied up in some scandal that is from Alaska?

Yeah but Stevens had to quit the State Senate and take job fishing in the Bering Strait.

[Flying Dog]

I'll make some bold predictions for each state, and years, used current positions:
AK: St. Sen. Ben Stevens (R) (takes over for dad in 2014)

State Sen. Stevens is currently entangled in an FBI corruption investigation. Even if he weren't likely to be indicted, Stevens' last name would be enough to disqualify him. (Remember, nepotism is still a salient issue in Alaska.)

O.K. What Republicans isn't tied up in some scandal that is from Alaska?

Yeah but Stevens had to quit the State Senate and take job fishing in the Bering Strait.

Hey, fishing in the Bering Strait can be a pretty lucrative career choice.

[Dan the Roman]

Well to be fair he seems to have switched over to fishing for oil, which given Steven's family traditions makes a lot of sense.

http://www.adn.com/news/politics/fbi/bstevens/story/243140.html

[Josh/Devilman88]

DTWL how am I stupid? Kay Hagan can and will win. She hasn't ran any ads for the GE election and Dole has and Dole is only up by 11%, that isn't very good. Once Hagan starts running ads, it will be tied again, top that with higher turn-out of black voter and young voter who will voter Dem all the way down the ticket spell Hagan win.

[HardRCafé]

hagan cant win because north carolina will never elect a woman senator

The difference is, I realize my reasoning is faulty.

[DownWithTheLeft]

DTWL how am I stupid? Kay Hagan can and will win. She hasn't ran any ads for the GE election and Dole has and Dole is only up by 11%, that isn't very good. Once Hagan starts running ads, it will be tied again, top that with higher turn-out of black voter and young voter who will voter Dem all the way down the ticket spell Hagan win.

That is just absurd on so many levels.  How can running ads make up 11 points by itself?  You can't be certain that more blacks and young people show up, and that itself cannot make up 11 points.  I guess everyone else has tried to explain this, but somehow it goes right over your head.  At least your map has Dole winning, you must have used some sort of brain to figure that one out.

[Brittain33]

That is just absurd on so many levels.  How can running ads make up 11 points by itself?

Well, if you believed the polls showing Hagen and Dole closely matched and swapping leads right before Liddy started a barrage of ads leading to the current situation...

[Josh/Devilman88]

DWTL, I getting ready to post a thread on why I think Hagan can win.

[DownWithTheLeft]

DWTL, I getting ready to post a thread on why I think Hagan can win.

Have fun then, you certainly haven't done enough to make people think you have no idea what your talking about.  Maybe I'll make one on why Massachusetts could swing to McCain.  No but seriously Josh, the goldmine has been lacking a little so if you could go ahead and make that thread, that would be great.

[Spaghetti Cat]

AL: Mike Rogers
AK: Lt. Gov. Sean Parenll
AZ: Rep. Gabrielle Giffords (D) (appointed after McCain wins)
AR: More than 10 years
CA: Rep. Loretta Sanchez when Feinstein retires/dies
CO: Bob Schaffer (R) (no explanation needed)
CT: Gov. Jodi Rell
DE: AG Beau Biden (D) (takes over for dad eventually)
FL: Rep. Connie Mack IV (R) (defeats Bill Nelson in 2012)
GA: Rep. Lynn Westmoreland
HI: Linda Lingle, when one of the oldsters dies
ID: Lt. Gov. Jim Risch (no explanation needed)
IL: More than 10 years
IN: Rep. Brads Ellsworth (D) (Lugar retires in 2012)
IA: More than 10 years, barring retirement
KS: Gov. Kathleen Sebilus
KY: Rep. Ben Chandler (D) (defs. Bunning)
LA: John Kennedy (R) (defs. Landrieu)
ME: more than 10 years, eventually Chellie Pingree
MD: Donna Edwards or Chris Van Hollan
MA: Rep. Richard Neal
MI: Pete Hoekstra
MN: too far off to tell
MS: more than 10 years, barring retirement
MO: Rep. Jo Ann Emerson (defeats Claire or goes for open seat)
MT: Tester will be there for a while
NE: Fmr. Gov. Mike Johnans (no explaination needed)
NV: be a while
NH: maybe Shaheen, if not Paul Hodes
NJ: Chris Smith
NM: Rep. Tom Udall (no explanation needed)
NY: more than 10 years
NC: more than 10 years
ND: more than 10 years, barring retirement
OH: Tim Ryan
OK: Mary Fallin, but not for a while
OR: Earl Blumenaur, just hopefully not Wu
PA: Melissa Hart defeats Specter in the primary, wins in 2010
RI: more than 10 yeras
SC: eventually Pomeroy
SD: eventually Herseth Sandlin
TN: Davis or Blackburn, but it'll be a while
TX: maybe Hensarling when Hutchison becomes Gov
UT: hmm maybe the guy who beat the incumbant in the primary, but not for a while
VT: Welch, eventually
VA: Fmr. Gov. Mark Warner (no explanation needed)
WA: Cathy McMorris Rodgers eventually
WV: Rep. Shelley Capito Moore (once Byrd is gone)
WI: hmm maybe Kagen or Ryan
WY: eventually Lummis

[Keystone Phil]

PA: Melissa Hart defeats Specter in the primary, wins in 2010

Oh, I wish. If she didn't lose in 2006, this could have happened. I don't know if she'd be willing to do it though especially not now.

[Flying Dog]

MI: Pete Hoekstra

God, No.

[Josh/Devilman88]

Burr will not win re-election, sorry to say but he isn't.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Burr will not win re-election, sorry to say but he isn't.

Of course, Josh.  Good start BTW to that not saying stupid things pledge

[Josh/Devilman88]

Burr will not win re-election, sorry to say but he isn't.

Of course, Josh.  Good start BTW to that not saying stupid things pledge

No one has ever held that seat more then one term. IIRC

[DownWithTheLeft]

Burr will not win re-election, sorry to say but he isn't.

Of course, Josh.  Good start BTW to that not saying stupid things pledge

No one has ever held that seat more then one term. IIRC

I'm sure someone has at some point, and that doesn't make a damn bit of difference.  It was an open seat in 2004 and going back to 1998 is a political eternity.

[MarkWarner08]

Burr will not win re-election, sorry to say but he isn't.

Of course, Josh.  Good start BTW to that not saying stupid things pledge

No one has ever held that seat more then one term. IIRC

I'm sure someone has at some point, and that doesn't make a damn bit of difference.  It was an open seat in 2004 and going back to 1998 is a political eternity.

Yep. Sam Ervin held the seat for 20 years, IIRC.

[Josh/Devilman88]

Burr will not win re-election, sorry to say but he isn't.

Of course, Josh.  Good start BTW to that not saying stupid things pledge

No one has ever held that seat more then one term. IIRC

I'm sure someone has at some point, and that doesn't make a damn bit of difference.  It was an open seat in 2004 and going back to 1998 is a political eternity.

Yep. Sam Ervin held the seat for 20 years, IIRC.

I might have went to far to say ever, but its been a long long time.

[Spaghetti Cat]

PA: Melissa Hart defeats Specter in the primary, wins in 2010

Oh, I wish. If she didn't lose in 2006, this could have happened. I don't know if she'd be willing to do it though especially not now.

haha yeah I was kind of just kidding with that.  Although if she wins in November you never know....

[Dan the Roman]

Burr will not win re-election, sorry to say but he isn't.

Of course, Josh.  Good start BTW to that not saying stupid things pledge

No one has ever held that seat more then one term. IIRC

I'm sure someone has at some point, and that doesn't make a damn bit of difference.  It was an open seat in 2004 and going back to 1998 is a political eternity.

Saying he will lose because the seat is cursed is stupid.Saying Burr stands a good chance of losing in 20010 because he has approval ratings in the high 30s, is to the right of the state, and has first-tier challengers lining up to run against him makes great sense. One reason Hagan ended up challenging Dole is because all the top Democrats are waiting to challenge him.

I would say that after Buning and Mel Martinez, Burr is probably the most endangered Republican up in 2010, and if McCain is President has a better than 50% chance of losing.

[Хahar 🤔]

CA: Gov. Arnold Schwarenegger (R) (wins in 2012)

You still think he can beat Feinstein? He's not popular anymore, what with the budget fiasco, and Feinstein will (unfortunately) be a Senator as long as she wants.

[HardRCafé]

He wasn't popular any more in 2005, either.

[Brittain33]

He wasn't popular any more in 2005, either.

This is where the quality of the Democrat becomes an issue--Feinstein vs. the two guys who tore each other to shreds in the primary in '06--and the divergence between federal and state voting patterns.

[Josh/Devilman88]

Burr will not win re-election, sorry to say but he isn't.

Of course, Josh.  Good start BTW to that not saying stupid things pledge

No one has ever held that seat more then one term. IIRC

I'm sure someone has at some point, and that doesn't make a damn bit of difference.  It was an open seat in 2004 and going back to 1998 is a political eternity.

Saying he will lose because the seat is cursed is stupid.Saying Burr stands a good chance of losing in 20010 because he has approval ratings in the high 30s, is to the right of the state, and has first-tier challengers lining up to run against him makes great sense. One reason Hagan ended up challenging Dole is because all the top Democrats are waiting to challenge him.

I would say that after Buning and Mel Martinez, Burr is probably the most endangered Republican up in 2010, and if McCain is President has a better than 50% chance of losing.

Well, that too. But I think Hagan has a good shot at beating Dole.