Why Palin Works

[Nym90]

The key is this:

28% of Hillary voters will vote for McCain.  This will not decrease that number.

48% will vote for Obama.  This will not decrease that number.

30% say they don't know if they will vote, or, if they will, for whom, we don't know whom they will vote.  While I am skeptical of a great swinging to McCain by the Palin choice, even 1/3 of this group swinging could blast Obama out of the water. 

Well, McCain didn't quite get 28 percent of the Clinton voters, much less the supposedly higher percentage Palin might bring, now did he....

[Meeker]

J.J.'s election math is always good for a laugh.

[So the Heroes Fall]

I've said that if J. J. were an accountant, he'd be at least de-certified, and would be lucky to not end up in prison.

[Stranger in a strange land]

The key is this:

28% of Hillary voters will vote for McCain.  This will not decrease that number.

48% will vote for Obama.  This will not decrease that number.

30% say they don't know if they will vote, or, if they will, for whom, we don't know whom they will vote.  While I am skeptical of a great swinging to McCain by the Palin choice, even 1/3 of this group swinging could blast Obama out of the water. 

Well, McCain didn't quite get 28 percent of the Clinton voters, much less the supposedly higher percentage Palin might bring, now did he....

well, the idea that McCain would ever get 1/3 or more of Hillary supporters was just plain silly. However, McCain could have done more to peel off Hillary supporters than he did: Palin was essentially a gimmick, and after the stock market crash and her disastrous interviews, people saw through it.

What McCain could have done in the 3 months that Obama and Clinton were fighting it out was to put forward credible policy proposals that would appeal to Hillary supporters and reinforce his "Maverick" image. Polls show that the issue Democratic women care about most is health care, and McCain never really put forth a credible proposal on health care the entire campaign. Yes, a certain percentage of Hillary women care only about keeping abortion legal, but McCain never had a chance with those voters, much like Obama never had a chance with the socially conservative, economically populist poor white evangelicals who supported Huckabee.

[N.i.K.]

LOL. I miss the days before bailout-mania when everyone thought McCain would win.

[N.i.K.]

McCain should have picked Hutchison.

Why?

1. Southwestern: This shouldn't matter, but she could help McCain in New Mexico and Colorado, even though there in his backyard.

2. Pro-choice: Now some conservatives would not accept this, but Hillary voters would have liked it. It would also enhance McCain's maverick image.

3. Economic Expierence: Well, somewhat, she was Texas State Treasurer.

4. She's a woman: She is a woman, and a tough woman, not a caribou barbie like Palin. It could infuriate Biden, as he would have to not look like he's attacking her. The same went with Palin, but she's dumb. Hutchison could murder Biden in a debate.

[Fmr. Emperor PiT]

McCain should have picked Hutchison.

Why?

1. Southwestern: This shouldn't matter, but she could help McCain in New Mexico and Colorado, even though there in his backyard.

2. Pro-choice: Now some conservatives would not accept this, but Hillary voters would have liked it. It would also enhance McCain's maverick image.

3. Economic Expierence: Well, somewhat, she was Texas State Treasurer.

4. She's a woman: She is a woman, and a tough woman, not a caribou barbie like Palin. It could infuriate Biden, as he would have to not look like he's attacking her. The same went with Palin, but she's dumb. Hutchison could murder Biden in a debate.

     People in NM & CO could not care less about a VP pick from TX.

[Lunar]

Also, I don't think Hutchison wanted it or would have accepted it.  She clearly wanted to be governor of Texas and then retire.

[Nym90]

McCain should have picked Hutchison.

Why?

1. Southwestern: This shouldn't matter, but she could help McCain in New Mexico and Colorado, even though there in his backyard.

2. Pro-choice: Now some conservatives would not accept this, but Hillary voters would have liked it. It would also enhance McCain's maverick image.

3. Economic Expierence: Well, somewhat, she was Texas State Treasurer.

4. She's a woman: She is a woman, and a tough woman, not a caribou barbie like Palin. It could infuriate Biden, as he would have to not look like he's attacking her. The same went with Palin, but she's dumb. Hutchison could murder Biden in a debate.

She wouldn't have helped in New Mexico or especially Colorado. BRTD is actually right on this one, that the neighboring state theory is bogus (unless the neighboring states are similar politically, which neighboring states often are, though Texas is not much at all like New Mexico overall or Colorado).

Reasons 2 and 4 would've indeed helped the ticket a bit with swing voters, but also turned off the GOP base. So, not much net help, if any.

Reason 3, ok, but how much does this really matter in a VP pick?

I actually don't think Palin was as bad of a pick as many people think. She at least energized the party base, which might've at least kept the election from turning into a mini-landslide (which is very possible if McCain picks someone unacceptable to the base and they revolt and fail to turn out). Obviously there was no one who McCain could've picked who would've actually won him the election.

She clearly did hurt with swing voters, but no VP is going to make a big difference with them one way or another anyway.

[I left.]

LOL. I miss the days before bailout-mania when everyone thought McCain would win.

That statement was never true.

[Verily]

Also, I don't think Hutchison wanted it or would have accepted it.  She clearly wanted to be governor of Texas and then retire.

Exactly. Her reaction to the Palin choice made it very clear that she would not have accepted had she been asked, but she expected to be asked and was highly offended that McCain had not approached her and chose an upstart token woman instead.

[Lief]

LOL. I miss the days before bailout-mania when everyone thought McCain would win.

McCain never had higher than a 50-50 chance of winning the nomination, and that was directly after the convention, when he got an expected convention bounce.

[So the Heroes Fall]

McCain should have picked Hutchison.

Why?

1. Southwestern: This shouldn't matter, but she could help McCain in New Mexico and Colorado, even though there in his backyard.

Why would people in those states care about someone from Texas just because it happens to be in the same general region of the country? Besides there's something else I can't beleive no one else has mentioned: Bush didn't get any noticable bounce in these states.

2. Pro-choice: Now some conservatives would not accept this, but Hillary voters would have liked it. It would also enhance McCain's maverick image.

She's not really pro-choice. Just not ravingly anti-abortion. Look at her NARAL rating. She would simply turn off conservatives and not win over any pro-choicers.

3. Economic Expierence: Well, somewhat, she was Texas State Treasurer.

Great for the maybe 4 people who would actually change their vote based on that. The running mate of one of the tickets being a state treasurer at some point will probably rank at #5312513513 in issues of importance.

4. She's a woman: She is a woman, and a tough woman, not a caribou barbie like Palin. It could infuriate Biden, as he would have to not look like he's attacking her. The same went with Palin, but she's dumb. Hutchison could murder Biden in a debate.

Read this thread. People were saying the same thing about Palin.

[The Mikado]

McCain should have picked Hutchison.

Why?

1. Southwestern: This shouldn't matter, but she could help McCain in New Mexico and Colorado, even though there in his backyard.

She's a Dallasite and lives literally five hundred miles away from New Mexico, or slightly further than Boston to DC.  Have you ever been to New Mexico?  It isn't much like (urban/suburban) Texas.

2. Pro-choice: Now some conservatives would not accept this, but Hillary voters would have liked it. It would also enhance McCain's maverick image.

The only enthusiasm in the McCain camp the entire campaign was about Palin, and was from the...well...Palin people.  Those people would not have come out to volunteer, phonebank, walk, etc. without someone like them on the ticket.  McCain's ground game would've been even worse.

3. Economic Expierence: Well, somewhat, she was Texas State Treasurer.

BRTD nailed it.

4. She's a woman: She is a woman, and a tough woman, not a caribou barbie like Palin. It could infuriate Biden, as he would have to not look like he's attacking her. The same went with Palin, but she's dumb. Hutchison could murder Biden in a debate.

And without the spectacle of Palin, the VP debate wouldn't have been nearly the event that it was.  All those ratings, that coverage, the focus was for her.

Besides, Hutchison doesn't WANT to live in Washington anymore.  She had to be strongarmed out of not vacating her Senate seat in 2006.  She wants to come home.

[Judäischen Volksfront]

Palin did work.

For the Democrats.

She was a Godsend for them.