Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
August 29, 2015, 09:43:44 am
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Election 2016 predictions are now open!.

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Election Archive
| |-+  2008 Elections
| | |-+  states where obama will win the white male vote?
« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2 Print
Author Topic: states where obama will win the white male vote?  (Read 5237 times)
WalterMitty
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21626


Political Matrix
E: 1.68, S: -2.26

View Profile
« on: July 27, 2008, 12:03:12 pm »
Ignore

not that im a big fan of exit polls. 

vermont comes to mind.  dc too.  minnesota, possibly?
Logged

Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 37156
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -7.10, S: -6.09


View Profile
« Reply #1 on: July 27, 2008, 12:07:31 pm »
Ignore

Washington, Hawaii, Illinois, Massachusetts to name a few others ...
Logged
mokbu
mokbubble
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 493


View Profile
« Reply #2 on: July 27, 2008, 12:13:49 pm »
Ignore

oregon maine iowa
Logged
Jacobtm
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3124


View Profile
« Reply #3 on: July 27, 2008, 12:21:50 pm »
Ignore

Wisconsin perhaps?
Logged

We either have a country, or we don't.
WalterMitty
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21626


Political Matrix
E: 1.68, S: -2.26

View Profile
« Reply #4 on: July 27, 2008, 12:33:45 pm »
Ignore

Wisconsin perhaps?

maybe not.
Logged

Verily
Cuivienen
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 16751


Political Matrix
E: 1.81, S: -6.78

View Profile
« Reply #5 on: July 27, 2008, 12:36:41 pm »
Ignore

Iowa, if he continues his 5-10 point leads there. IIRC, white Iowans are most liberal (by self-identity) white population in the country.
Logged
MSUfan
Jtfdem
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6402
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.58, S: 4.70

View Profile
« Reply #6 on: July 27, 2008, 12:41:58 pm »
Ignore

Oregon?
Logged
phk
phknrocket1k
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 12952


Political Matrix
E: 1.42, S: -1.22

View Profile
« Reply #7 on: July 27, 2008, 12:42:01 pm »
Ignore

Iowa, if he continues his 5-10 point leads there. IIRC, white Iowans are most liberal (by self-identity) white population in the country.

Even more than VT?
Logged

Warner for President '16
benconstine
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 30368
United States



View Profile
« Reply #8 on: July 27, 2008, 12:42:57 pm »
Ignore

Vermont
Massachusetts
Illinois
Minnesota
California
Washington
Hawaii
Logged

Obama High's debate team:

"Now let me be clear...I...I...um...uh...now let me be clear.  I strongly condemn the affirmative in the strongest possible terms, and I am closely monitoring their arguments.  Let me be clear on this."
Undisguised Sockpuppet
Straha
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 9842
Uruguay


Political Matrix
E: 6.52, S: 2.00

View Profile
« Reply #9 on: July 27, 2008, 12:51:17 pm »
Ignore

California(but only if you count latins as white). The rest? I'm not so sure on tbh.
Logged

The general's hand slipped, and pressed the launch all missiles button by accident.
phk
phknrocket1k
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 12952


Political Matrix
E: 1.42, S: -1.22

View Profile
« Reply #10 on: July 27, 2008, 01:09:13 pm »
Ignore

California(but only if you count latins as white). The rest? I'm not so sure on tbh.

A disproportionate amount of CA Latins are Natives.
Logged

Snowguy716
snowguy716
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 18345
Austria


View Profile
« Reply #11 on: July 27, 2008, 01:16:24 pm »
Ignore

Definitely here in Minnesota.  You pretty much have to win the white vote in Minnesota to win.. when we're 85% of the population.
Logged

"Above and beyond the question of how to grow the economy there is a legitimate concern about how to grow the quality of our lives."
-Paul Wellstone


"The message was that you are so well trained to believe what you see... That you believed what you saw."

Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party
The Year Summer Ended In July
BRTD
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 74782
France


View Profile
« Reply #12 on: July 27, 2008, 01:26:43 pm »
Ignore

He said white male vote, not white. Still the gender gap in Minnesota is very small. Only a 2-point split between white men and white women in 2004, Bush taking white men 51-49, the numbers reversed for white women. So it'll probably happen here.

Iowa was 52-47, so if he wins by the poll margin, that'll happen.
Logged

Brittain33
brittain33
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13470


View Profile
« Reply #13 on: July 27, 2008, 01:46:30 pm »
Ignore

Minnesota, Rhode Island, Massachussetts, New York, Vermont, Maryland, DC

I wouldn't count on New York, necessarily, seeing as how it votes like Massachusetts and Rhode Island but with a much higher minority population and no doubt one heck of a gender gap in the suburbs.
Logged
Grad Students are the Worst
Alcon
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 29926
United States


View Profile
« Reply #14 on: July 27, 2008, 02:03:10 pm »
Ignore

Kerry's margin among white men, per the exit polls.  Note that these have a reasonably high MoE, especially in states with a high minority population.

District of Columbia +52%
Vermont +14%
Rhode Island +13%
Massachusetts +10%
Hawai'i +4%
Washington +1%
----------------------
Connecticut - 1%
Maine -1%
Minnesota -1%
Illinois -3%
Iowa -5%
New York -6%
New Hampshire -7%
Wisconsin -10%
Missouri -11%
Maryland -13%
New Jersey -13%
Ohio -13%
California -14%
Pennsylvania -15%
West Virginia -15%
Michigan -16%
New Mexico -18%
Oregon -18%
Colorado -19%
Florida -19%
Delaware -20%
Montana -20%
Nevada -20%
South Dakota -25%
Arizona -27%
Indiana -31%
Kansas -32%
Nebraska -32%
Tennessee -33%
North Dakota -34%
Arkansas -35%
Kentucky -35%
Alaska -44%
Texas -45%
Virginia -45%
Wyoming -45%
Idaho -46%
Oklahoma -46%
North Carolina -49%
Utah -50%
Georgia -52%
Louisiana -54%
South Carolina -56%
Mississippi -63%
Alabama -64%

Fun list.  White men in Delaware are just as Republican as in Montana.  Who knew?
« Last Edit: July 27, 2008, 09:29:48 pm by Alcon »Logged

n/c
??????????
StatesRights
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 31255
Political Matrix
E: 7.61, S: 0.00

View Profile
« Reply #15 on: July 27, 2008, 02:17:47 pm »
Ignore

Maryland

Try no.
Logged
War on Want
Evilmexicandictator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7664
Uzbekistan


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -8.00

View Profile
« Reply #16 on: July 27, 2008, 02:59:30 pm »
Ignore

Vermont
Washington
Oregon
Minnesota
Maine
Illinois
Rhode Island
Massachussetts
New York
Connecticut
Logged
Torie
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 30031
Samoa


View Profile
« Reply #17 on: July 27, 2008, 03:26:43 pm »
Ignore

Vermont, and maybe Hawaii (the white vote there is pretty liberal these days), Maine, Illinois, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Washington, and Minnesota. I suspect the odds are less than 50-50 everywhere else.
« Last Edit: July 27, 2008, 03:28:55 pm by Torie »Logged

tweed
Miamiu1027
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 36769
United States


View Profile
« Reply #18 on: July 27, 2008, 03:34:55 pm »
Ignore

Mississippi
Logged

I wanna contribute to the chaos
I don't wanna watch and then complain,
'cause I am through finding blame
that is the decision that I have made
Torie
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 30031
Samoa


View Profile
« Reply #19 on: July 27, 2008, 04:20:44 pm »
Ignore

Alcon, add to your list Connecticut, -1.
Logged

mokbu
mokbubble
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 493


View Profile
« Reply #20 on: July 27, 2008, 08:22:02 pm »
Ignore

Didnt see the male part.
Logged
Grad Students are the Worst
Alcon
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 29926
United States


View Profile
« Reply #21 on: July 27, 2008, 09:31:57 pm »
Ignore

Vermont, and maybe Hawaii (the white vote there is pretty liberal these days), Maine, Illinois, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Washington, and Minnesota. I suspect the odds are less than 50-50 everywhere else.

I'd be surprised if he lost them in Hawai'i.  Whites are stably Democratic in the state.  It was Bush's surge among pro-incumbent Asians and Pacific Islanders that gave him his gain.  Between 2000 and 2004, he went from 35% to 51% among those groups.
Logged

n/c
elcorazon
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2213


View Profile
« Reply #22 on: July 27, 2008, 10:18:05 pm »
Ignore

not sure but he could lose the white male vote about everywhere, won't he?  Is there a white male vote in DC?
Logged


"The most important thing to remember is, no matter what anybody tells you, it is never, ever unpatriotic or un-American to question anything in a democracy"
ChrisFromNJ
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2743


Political Matrix
E: -5.35, S: -8.61

View Profile
« Reply #23 on: July 27, 2008, 10:55:14 pm »
Ignore

Why do people think he will win the white male vote in Illinois?
Logged
Nym90
nym90
Modadmin
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 15380
United States


View Profile
« Reply #24 on: July 27, 2008, 11:02:36 pm »
Ignore

District of Columbia
Vermont
Rhode Island
Massachusetts
Hawai'i
Washington
Connecticut
Maine
Minnesota
Illinois
Iowa

Outside chance at New Hampshire and Wisconsin also.
Logged
Pages: [1] 2 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines