states where obama will win the white male vote?

[Alcon]

Kerry's margin among white men, per the exit polls.  Note that these have a reasonably high MoE, especially in states with a high minority population.

District of Columbia +52%
Vermont +14%
Rhode Island +13%
Massachusetts +10%
Hawai'i +4%
Washington +1%
----------------------
Connecticut - 1%
Maine -1%
Minnesota -1%
Illinois -3%
Iowa -5%
New York -6%
New Hampshire -7%
Wisconsin -10%
Missouri -11%
Maryland -13%
New Jersey -13%
Ohio -13%
California -14%
Pennsylvania -15%
West Virginia -15%
Michigan -16%
New Mexico -18%
Oregon -18%
Colorado -19%
Florida -19%
Delaware -20%
Montana -20%
Nevada -20%
South Dakota -25%
Arizona -27%
Indiana -31%
Kansas -32%
Nebraska -32%
Tennessee -33%
North Dakota -34%
Arkansas -35%
Kentucky -35%
Alaska -44%
Texas -45%
Virginia -45%
Wyoming -45%
Idaho -46%
Oklahoma -46%
North Carolina -49%
Utah -50%
Georgia -52%
Louisiana -54%
South Carolina -56%
Mississippi -63%
Alabama -64%

Fun list.  White men in Delaware are just as Republican as in Montana.  Who knew?

[Alcon]

Vermont, and maybe Hawaii (the white vote there is pretty liberal these days), Maine, Illinois, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Washington, and Minnesota. I suspect the odds are less than 50-50 everywhere else.

I'd be surprised if he lost them in Hawai'i.  Whites are stably Democratic in the state.  It was Bush's surge among pro-incumbent Asians and Pacific Islanders that gave him his gain.  Between 2000 and 2004, he went from 35% to 51% among those groups.