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| | | |-+  The current map is not surprising.
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Author Topic: The current map is not surprising.  (Read 4115 times)
Quadist
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« on: July 28, 2008, 09:37:11 am »
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Can you say deja vu?

264-175-99

Here is the current map from uselectionatlas:



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PASOK Leader Hashemite
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« Reply #1 on: July 28, 2008, 09:37:58 am »
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Your threads never have a point.
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Quadist
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« Reply #2 on: July 28, 2008, 09:40:50 am »
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This one does.

It will be interesting to see how the map changes, and compare the final map to this one.

The point of this map is that it is so similar to 2000 and 2004.
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Quadist
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« Reply #3 on: July 28, 2008, 09:42:17 am »
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Here is another visual of the current situation:

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/Maps/Jul28.html
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Josh/Devilman88
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« Reply #4 on: July 28, 2008, 09:43:33 am »
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NC needs to be grey to
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Quadist
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« Reply #5 on: July 28, 2008, 09:44:56 am »
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NC needs to be grey to

I am going strictly by the current map which has NC as light blue.
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DownWithTheLeft
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« Reply #6 on: July 28, 2008, 09:45:02 am »
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NC needs to be grey to
No, it absolutley does not.  Nothing except your own fantasies suggest that
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Quadist
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« Reply #7 on: July 28, 2008, 09:46:04 am »
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This is the current map, but will change, which is why I created the map above:

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Josh/Devilman88
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« Reply #8 on: July 28, 2008, 09:51:48 am »
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Whatever DTWL, the fact is the NC has be polling as close the CO has been polling for a while, if you don't want to face the facts I'm sorry. Anyways I also believe NH and MI and NC all need to be grey.
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DownWithTheLeft
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« Reply #9 on: July 28, 2008, 09:54:10 am »
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Whatever DTWL, the fact is the NC has be polling as close the CO has been polling for a while, if you don't want to face the facts I'm sorry. Anyways I also believe NH and MI and NC all need to be grey.
What about VT, CA, DC, AL, and TX?  Will these be close as well?
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« Reply #10 on: July 28, 2008, 10:22:27 am »
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How dare I say NC is a toss-up when its been polling 2 to 5 percent for McCain. God I am such a Hack.
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bullmoose88
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« Reply #11 on: July 28, 2008, 10:39:07 am »
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How dare I say NC is a toss-up when its been polling 2 to 5 percent for McCain. God I am such a Hack.

2-5% McCain when Obama leads by what nationally? 3-4 points (+/- 1)?

Its really only weak Republican on such a swing...which may or may not last until Election Day.
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« Reply #12 on: July 28, 2008, 10:46:34 am »
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Bullmoosee, I understand that and that is why I say alot, that NC is a toss-up right now or PA is lean Obama right now. But I just get sick of people say I'm a hack when I say NC is a toss-up right now.
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DownWithTheLeft
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« Reply #13 on: July 28, 2008, 10:47:21 am »
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Bullmoosee, I understand that and that is why I say alot, that NC is a toss-up right now or PA is lean Obama right now. But I just get sick of people say I'm a hack when I say NC is a toss-up right now.
I have a simple solution, stop saying ridiculous hack things.
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« Reply #14 on: July 28, 2008, 10:53:35 am »
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DWTL, please tell me how saying a state that is polling 2-4% for McCain (right now) is a toss-up state(right now)?
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« Reply #15 on: July 28, 2008, 11:19:41 am »
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DWTL, please tell me how saying a state that is polling 2-4% for McCain (right now) is a toss-up state(right now)?

Because it's unlikely that Obama will win by the seven or eight points nationally required to swing North Carolina into his column?
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Josh/Devilman88
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« Reply #16 on: July 28, 2008, 11:23:52 am »
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DWTL, please tell me how saying a state that is polling 2-4% for McCain (right now) is a toss-up state(right now)?

Because it's unlikely that Obama will win by the seven or eight points nationally required to swing North Carolina into his column?

Its not very likely that McCain will win by 4% to swing PA, NH, MI to McCain side, but people say that them are toss-up states.
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« Reply #17 on: July 28, 2008, 11:29:34 am »
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Its not very likely that McCain will win by 4% to swing PA, NH, MI to McCain side, but people say that them are toss-up states.

Which is precisely why none of those are actual toss-up states anymore (though the swing doesn't really need to quite be as high as +4 for McCain to win Michigan or New Hampshire).
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Josh/Devilman88
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« Reply #18 on: July 28, 2008, 11:43:07 am »
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Its not very likely that McCain will win by 4% to swing PA, NH, MI to McCain side, but people say that them are toss-up states.

Which is precisely why none of those are actual toss-up states anymore (though the swing doesn't really need to quite be as high as +4 for McCain to win Michigan or New Hampshire).

Yea your right, I was just guessing.
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elcorazon
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« Reply #19 on: July 28, 2008, 11:44:38 am »
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the truth is that NC could go to obama but the Conventional Wisdom is that IF it were to go to Obama, Obama would have won the election by quite a bit.  PA, MI, etc. could go to McCain and if only one were to do so, the election might still be close... in other words, it could put mccain over the top.  So even if it's unlikely that Mccain win PA, if mccain can eke out victories in many of the true tossups, PA could put him over the top, making it a key battleground.  NC, on the other hand is HIGHLY UNLIKELY to put Obama over the top.

So even if Obama's odds of winning NC were similar to MCCain's of winning PA, it's really still less of a true battleground and thus less likely to be called a swing state or a tossup.
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« Reply #20 on: July 28, 2008, 08:20:02 pm »
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Can you say deja vu?

264-175-99

Here is the current map from uselectionatlas:





Some basic observations:

First, the map is quite plausible.

Second, all eight of the "tossup" states were won by Bush in 2004.

Third, two states won by Bush in 2004 are in the Obama column this year (Iowa and New Mexico).

Fourth, no states won by Kerry in 2004 are either in the McCain or Tossup category.

Fifth, if Obama wins Ohio (right now I think he will), its all over, even if McCain wins all the remaining seven "Toss=up" states (highly unlikely).
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« Reply #21 on: August 02, 2008, 07:08:03 pm »
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NC is not a toss up state.  I feel once Obama can lead in one poll in NC then I would agree that it is a toss up. 
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MooMooMoo
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« Reply #22 on: August 03, 2008, 04:37:20 pm »
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So, McCain will have to win ALL of the swing states to win the election?

Though, I doubt IN is really a swing state.

I think Obama will win Colorado  and that McCain will win Missouri and Montana. Other than that, Nevada, Virginia and Florida will be the only states that will be under 50% this election.
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StatesRights
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« Reply #23 on: August 06, 2008, 09:38:37 am »
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NC is not a toss up state.  I feel once Obama can lead in one poll in NC then I would agree that it is a toss up. 

One poll is enough to make it a tossup? wow
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« Reply #24 on: August 06, 2008, 04:10:35 pm »
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NC needs to be grey to

No it doesn't.  Obama has never led there; or even been tied.  At least in states like VA he has been ahead, tied, or down by 1-2.
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