Fineman: Obama's short list is Bayh, Biden, and Kaine

[War on Want]

Politically for both candidates:

Obama:  Bayh or Kaine.  Both have an equal chance of gaining electoral votes.

McCain:  Ridge is the better choice (Probably 21 EV's), but Romney helps in MI (17 EVC's).

Romney does not help at all, and Ridge won't win anything either.

[Nym90]

They all have their pros and cons.

Biden helps generally everywhere by boosting the foreign policy and national security credentials of the ticket, and he'd be a good attack dog. He's not likely to run for President in 2016 at age 73 so he'd have no reason to be disloyal to Obama. He'd help energize the base with his red meat attacks on McCain and the GOP.

However, he doesn't bring any states (maybe helps a tiny bit in Pennsylvania, but not much). Prone to gaffes, though I think in an environment such as this, his "straight talk" would help him overall more than it'd hurt.

Kaine is the most help electorally, as he could deliver Virginia. Even if he only boosts the ticket 1-2 points in Virginia (which would be about average historically) that could make the difference, and winning Virginia means McCain would have to either hold all the rest of the Bush states, or win 2 out of 3 of MI/OH/PA to win. Both are pretty unlikely.

However, his lack of experience along with Obama's is a potential problem, though of course it could be spun as a real "change" ticket. Also his pro-life position might be problematic with the base; though of course again, that cuts both ways and could help in states such as Ohio.

Bayh is kind of a compromise between the two. Polling shows Indiana close, so it's not impossible he could tip it to Obama, though I think it's pretty unlikely in the end, even with Bayh. He helps somewhat in the experience category, though not as much as Biden. He's moderate, which helps with swing voters but might deenergize the base.

At the end of the day, however, VPs don't actually matter that much in the results of the election. Obama would be best off choosing someone who he has personal chemistry with and who would be a good VP and ready to be President if the need should arise. Biden thus seems the best pick of these three in those capacities.

[Mr. Morden]

However, his lack of experience along with Obama's is a potential problem, though of course it could be spun as a real "change" ticket. Also his pro-life position might be problematic with the base; though of course again, that cuts both ways and could help in states such as Ohio.

Again, Kaine is not pro-life.  He says that he personally thinks abortion is wrong, but that it should still be legal.  The pro-life/pro-choice divide is over whether abortion should be legal, not over whether it's morally OK.  Thinking abortion is immoral doesn't automatically make you pro-life.

[Nym90]

However, his lack of experience along with Obama's is a potential problem, though of course it could be spun as a real "change" ticket. Also his pro-life position might be problematic with the base; though of course again, that cuts both ways and could help in states such as Ohio.

Again, Kaine is not pro-life.  He says that he personally thinks abortion is wrong, but that it should still be legal.  The pro-life/pro-choice divide is over whether abortion should be legal, not over whether it's morally OK.  Thinking abortion is immoral doesn't automatically make you pro-life.

I apologize, I didn't know that was his position. I had just heard that he was pro-life and went with it.

In that case, his position wouldn't be a problem with the base at all, as the vast majority of Democrats would agree with him; not to mention the majority of Americans overall.

[Keystone Phil]

I think Biden is the best pick.....I'm just worried about his gaffe's.

The potential gaffes and that over the top arrogance will be a problem.

Go with Joe, Barack!

[TomC]

I still think Biden is the best choice of those three. He brings a lot of foreign policy and military experience to the table, doesn't cause them to lose a Senate seat, and can act as an effective attack dog against McCain.

Bayh lacks gravitas and his running as VP would hand the Republicans a crucial Senate seat.

Kaine has only 2 1/2 years as governor and would only add to the whole"inexperienced" meme. I also highly doubt he would make the difference in carrying Virginia.

exactly

[Nym90]

I think Biden is the best pick.....I'm just worried about his gaffe's.

The potential gaffes and that over the top arrogance will be a problem.

Go with Joe, Barack!

Because voters prefer capitulators to those who stand up for their interests and their ideology, right?

Reagan made a lot of gaffes and was pretty arrogant, just to cite one example.

[TheresNoMoney]

I don't think either Kaine or Bayh would make a difference in carrying Virginia or Indiana. I remain highly skeptical that a VP pick can win a state for a candidate.

And I really think losing a Senate seat in Indiana would be HUGE, as Obama will need every Democratic Senator possible to help get his legislation passed. If the Dems lose Bayh's seat, they will probably not get it back for a long, long time.

[Keystone Phil]

I think Biden is the best pick.....I'm just worried about his gaffe's.

The potential gaffes and that over the top arrogance will be a problem.

Go with Joe, Barack!

Because voters prefer capitulators to those who stand up for their interests and their ideology, right?

Reagan made a lot of gaffes and was pretty arrogant, just to cite one example.

Being arrogant is one thing. Biden shows his arrogance with a big smirk. He doesn't turn on a lot of voters and is also at risk of saying something really stupid.

[TheresNoMoney]

Being arrogant is one thing. Biden shows his arrogance with a big smirk. He doesn't turn on a lot of voters and is also at risk of saying something really stupid.

I am so sick of the whole "arrogant" thing. Biden is no more "arrogant" than any other Senator in Washington.  I have met him in person and seen him speak on TV numerous times, and I think he comes across as a straight-talker and an upfront guy.

Hell, I've met both Bayh and Biden in person and Biden comes across as WAY more real and down-to-earth than Bayh. Bayh comes across as the ultimate politician.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

There's really no perfect running mate for Obama in this election.

mark warner.

Enough.  Warner is running for Senate; deal with it.

Why is Senate so superior to VP, given that it is an inferior office?

To you, maybe, but I would rather be a Senator for 8 years than a VP for 8 years.

[Nym90]

I don't think either Kaine or Bayh would make a difference in carrying Virginia or Indiana. I remain highly skeptical that a VP pick can win a state for a candidate.

And I really think losing a Senate seat in Indiana would be HUGE, as Obama will need every Democratic Senator possible to help get his legislation passed. If the Dems lose Bayh's seat, they will probably not get it back for a long, long time.

True, though perhaps someone like Brad Ellsworth or Baron Hill would run for Senate. It's not a guaranteed loss of the seat, though I agree that an open seat race in Indiana certainly favors Republicans on the face of it.

[ShadowRocket]

And I really think losing a Senate seat in Indiana would be HUGE, as Obama will need every Democratic Senator possible to help get his legislation passed. If the Dems lose Bayh's seat, they will probably not get it back for a long, long time.

I don't think it would be that big of deal if they did lose it. And Long Thompson still has a reasonable shot at offing off Daniels.

[Nym90]

I think Biden is the best pick.....I'm just worried about his gaffe's.

The potential gaffes and that over the top arrogance will be a problem.

Go with Joe, Barack!

Because voters prefer capitulators to those who stand up for their interests and their ideology, right?

Reagan made a lot of gaffes and was pretty arrogant, just to cite one example.

Being arrogant is one thing. Biden shows his arrogance with a big smirk. He doesn't turn on a lot of voters and is also at risk of saying something really stupid.

Bush had a big smirk and said a lot of really stupid things too.

Yeah, I agree those are potential negatives, but it's a package deal. There's a thin line between confidence and arrogance, and if forced to have someone who is too much one way or another, most voters prefer the tough guy to the wimp. It's human nature.

[TheresNoMoney]

I don't think it would be that big of deal if they did lose it. And Long Thompson still has a reasonable shot at offing off Daniels.

It would be a huge deal. The goal is to get to 60 Senators, and there's no way in hell we do it over the next two cycles without Bayh's seat.

And yes, I believe that a Republican would be heavily favored in a special election there.

[Keystone Phil]

I have met him in person and seen him speak on TV numerous times, and I think he comes across as a straight-talker and an upfront guy.

Until he puts on that big smirk during a committee hearing. You can't deny that he thinks he's so slick sometimes.

Bush had a big smirk and said a lot of really stupid things too.

True but Bush comes across as more innocent. Biden doesn't.

[TheresNoMoney]

Biden is confident, that is a good thing.  Confidence is pretty much a requirement to be a national politician.

[Keystone Phil]

Biden is confident, that is a good thing.  Confidence is pretty much a requirement to be a national politician.

Ok, so you're going to keep denying that he thinks he's so slick (and loves it) by saying he's simply "confident." Fair enough. 

[ilikeverin]

Bayh, Biden,

He's going to pick Kaine, I know it.  He's just screwing with me.

[TheresNoMoney]

Ok, so you're going to keep denying that he thinks he's so slick (and loves it) by saying he's simply "confident." Fair enough. 

You have a weird thing about Democratic politicians. You call Biden "slick", I call Mitch McConnell and Norm Coleman and Rick Santorum and Sam Brownback "dishonest" and "slimy". And they love it too!  It's all pretty meaningless.

[Keystone Phil]

Ok, so you're going to keep denying that he thinks he's so slick (and loves it) by saying he's simply "confident." Fair enough. 

You have a weird thing about Democratic politicians. You call Biden "slick", I call Mitch McConnell and Norm Coleman and Rick Santorum and Sam Brownback "dishonest" and "slimy". And they love it too!  It's all pretty meaningless.

A weird thing? I've made my favorable opinion for certain Democrats and dislike for certain Republicans well known. You don't do that with your party so don't go playing the hack game.

[Beet]

There's really no perfect running mate for Obama in this election.

mark warner.

Enough.  Warner is running for Senate; deal with it.

Why is Senate so superior to VP, given that it is an inferior office?

To you, maybe, but I would rather be a Senator for 8 years than a VP for 8 years.

Why? VP is President of the Senate. A lot more people know who the VP is than know who some random Senator is.

[TheresNoMoney]

Biden would have a much more direct role in shaping national and foreign policy as the one VP than as 1 of 100 Senators. I also think that Obama really respects Biden's knowledge and trusts his judgement.

I'm confident that Biden would jump at the chance to be VP.

[Beet]

Biden would have a much more direct role in shaping national and foreign policy as the one VP than as 1 of 100 Senators.

Same for Mark Warner. Actually, Biden has a lot more seniority so he'd be giving up more.

[TheresNoMoney]

Same for Mark Warner. Actually, Biden has a lot more seniority so he'd be giving up more.

That's true, but Biden has 36 years of national political experience and Warner has 4 years as governor.

And with Biden as VP, we'd still keep his Delaware seat now and in the future. With Warner as VP, we probably lose that seat to a Republican.