Fineman: Obama's short list is Bayh, Biden, and Kaine

[Keystone Phil]

Quick question do everyone - How does Biden shake the "DC insider" label? He's more "insider" than Dodd.

[TheresNoMoney]

Quick question do everyone - How does Biden shake the "DC insider" label? He's more "insider" than Dodd.

He doesn't. However, I think a "DC Insider" might be a good thing to balance out the ticket.

The biggest knock on Obama is that he lacks Washington experience. If he picks Kaine, the whole ticket will be labeled as "risky" and "inexperienced".

[Torie]

Folks tire of Biden rather quickly. He is too "hot" for TV. If he is picked, Obama will need to be careful that he is not over-exposed. But he has far more depth due to hard work and having been around so long despite his pedestrian mind than either Bayh (another pedestrian mind), and Kaine (an opportunist).  I suspect Obama is most comfortable with Kaine. The issue is whether he thinks he can afford him or not, ie how severe he thinks the gravitas gap is for himself.

[Conan]

mark warner.

No foreign policy experience, one-term as governor.

We'd also be giving up a surefire Senate seat pickup.

You realize you're speaking about Obama's running mate, right? Kaine is better prepared to president than Obama himself.

[TheresNoMoney]

You realize you're speaking about Obama's running mate, right?

Of course I do, which is why I'm looking for a VP pick that has strengths in areas that are Obama's weaknesses.

[Lincoln Republican]

There's really no perfect running mate for Obama in this election.

mark warner.

Enough.  Warner is running for Senate; deal with it.

fine, pick biden and lose the election for all i care.

Oh, would that it was that easy.

[Eraserhead]

mark warner.

No foreign policy experience, one-term as governor.

We'd also be giving up a surefire Senate seat pickup.

You realize you're speaking about Obama's running mate, right? Kaine is better prepared to president than Obama himself.

Nope.

[Mr. Morden]

Here's more: Firstread repeats the line that the short list is Bayh, Biden, and Kaine:

http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/07/30/1232899.aspx

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However, Ambinder adds Sebelius to the mix:

http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/07/sebelius_kaine_bayh_biden.php

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[Bay Ridge, Bklyn! Born and Bred]

Actually, I'm starting to think Obama's choice won't be any of these three.  I'm thinking Kathleen Sebelius.

Check out what Obama had to say about Gov. Sebelius on July 1st:  "I love Kathleen Sebelius. I think she is as talented a public official as there is right now. Integrity. Competence. She can work with all people of all walks of life, but I promised that I am not going to say anything about my vice president until I actually introduce my vice president."

http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0708/Praise_for_Sibelius.html

Compare that to the criteria he outlined for a potential running mate on Meet the Press last Sunday:  "So here's what I'll tell you: I'm going to want somebody with integrity; I'm going to want somebody with independence, who's willing to tell me where he thinks or she thinks I'm wrong"

Reading too much into this, or a peak into the mind of the magic messiah?....Hmmm....

[Flying Dog]

The only downside to Sebelius is her vagina.

[agcatter]

What's a matter with it?

[Lief 🗽]

The only downside to Sebelius is her vagina.

Pretty much. Otherwise she's a much better pick than Kaine, Bayh or Biden.

[Ronnie]

I hope Obama chooses Bayh.  At least we'll get another senate seat, and Indiana isn't going to Obama anyway.

[JSojourner]

I'll be terribly disappointed if Obama chooses Bayh.  Indiana will lose a Senate seat for sure and there is no way this state will tip to the Democrats in the Presidential.  Not even close kids.

I like Kaine's story. But his popularity in Virginia is very low.  And he doesn't shore up any of Obama's weaknesses.

Everyone says Biden is gaffe prone.  He is not.  At least not any more gaffe prone that John McCain, Barack Obama, Willard Romney, Mike Huckabee or Bill Clinton.  Aside from his stupid statement about Obama being clean and articulate, name his gaffes...

Anyone?

What Biden DOES do is wonk people to death.  He bloviates.  That's something that smart, confident people do.  Richard Lugar gets accused of doing the same thing.  He's too wonkish, too analytical.  Figures Lugar considers Biden one of the greatest foreign policy minds in the Democratic Party.  And Biden says the same of Lugar for the GOP. 

Me?  I feel pretty damn good knowing that Joe Biden and Dick Lugar are two of Barack Obama's leading mentors and advisors on foreign policy issues. I think Obama's dumb NOT to choose Biden.  The man would make a great President, if the need arose. 

[Keystone Phil]

I'll be terribly disappointed if Obama chooses Bayh.  Indiana will lose a Senate seat for sure

You're not guaranteed of an Obama win...

[JSojourner]

I'll be terribly disappointed if Obama chooses Bayh.  Indiana will lose a Senate seat for sure

You're not guaranteed of an Obama win...

True.  In fact, I am still fairly sure of a McCain win.

[ShadowRocket]

I don't think it would be that big of deal if they did lose it. And Long Thompson still has a reasonable shot at offing off Daniels.

It would be a huge deal. The goal is to get to 60 Senators, and there's no way in hell we do it over the next two cycles without Bayh's seat.

But the Dems may very have picked up seven seats at the end of this cycle, without losing Landreiu's. Losing one seat isn't going to alter the balance of power between the two parties.

[Keystone Phil]

I'll be terribly disappointed if Obama chooses Bayh.  Indiana will lose a Senate seat for sure

You're not guaranteed of an Obama win...

True.  In fact, I am still fairly sure of a McCain win.

Then how are you losing a Senate seat?

[useful idiot]

However, his lack of experience along with Obama's is a potential problem, though of course it could be spun as a real "change" ticket. Also his pro-life position might be problematic with the base; though

Kaine isn't pro-life. This is a common misconception based on his gubernatorial race. Kilgore attacked him because of his anti death penalty stance. Kaine then asserted that by doing this Kilgore was attacking his Catholicism, and constantly implied that Kilgore was a bigot. He then tried to conceal the fact that he was pro choice because it would crush his whole strategy of portraying his opponent as a raving anti Catholic. The man is a weasel(aka a politician).

[Politico]

Gore/Kaine would have been the perfect, unbeatable ticket this year *sigh* Maybe the Democratic Party should go back to the days of political bosses running the show? Democratic primary/caucus voters do not exactly have a record to be proud of. We're talking about a system/group of voters that have only produced two candidates who won the general election, neither one with over 50% of the popular vote, since taking the bosses out of the equation nearly forty years ago. Some might make the argument, and the argument will definitely grow in popularity if we see a landslide loss this year, that Democratic primary/caucus voters really need somebody else to make the key decisions for them.

That spiel aside, obviously a Obama/Kaine ticket does not have enough experience, specifically in the foreign policy realm. Yeah, Clinton and Bush did not have a lot of foreign policy experience prior to becoming president...But let's not forget that 9/11 happened after they were elected, we were not at war when they were elected, and each one had a running mate who was extremely well versed in foreign policy prior to entering the White House. Anybody who thinks foreign policy is not going to matter this year is nuts. We have thousands and thousands of troops bogged down in two separate wars in the Middle East, with the constant threat of terrorism looming over everybody's shoulders. You better believe that the Republicans are going to find a way to make foreign policy issues a key part of the campaign. And yes, they will succeed and rightfully so - both domestic and foreign issues greatly matter in these dangerous, uncertain times. 

Quite simply, Biden and Bayh are "blah" choices guaranteed not to create a bounce among pretty much anybody, anywhere. Good luck with that.

If Obama does not stop the bleeding, the negative trend in the polling, before he picks his running mate I think it will likely indicate that he will lose the general election no matter who he chooses as a running mate. There's currently a very negative polling trend developing, and the next two weeks are critical for analysis. As a result, if the negative trend in polling continues over the next few weeks then I would like to see Obama pick Hillary and have the ticket lose in a landslide, which it definitely would - Anybody who thinks the nation is going to place a black man/white woman ticket combo into the White House obviously has never been outside of New York City/Washington, DC/Southern California, nor did they really pay attention in 2004, an election John Kerry ultimately lost for simply not supporting a bogus constitutional amendment against gay marriage.

Why would I like to see a landslide Obama/Clinton loss happen? It would end any chance of Hillary Clinton ever coming close to being president in the future. It would finally get the Clintons out of the spotlight once and for all, which is much healthier for everybody in the nation and Democratic Party. In addition, it would guarantee the Democrats pick up more seats in Congress this cycle as there's no way a landslide loss in the presidential election would also come with a party's loss of seats in Congress. A strong, heavily Democratic Congress would easily keep McCain in line and under control. Finally, it would pretty much guarantee a Democratic victory in 2012 against an old-as-dirt McCain or questionable VP (Quick! Name the last time either party won FOUR consecutive presidential elections). Quite simply, I'd rather see Obama/Clinton lose in a landslide then see Obama/Whoever lose in a landslide. I mean, who the heck wants to be forced to listen to four years of the Clintons telling everybody, "we told you so," with a sequel to the "inevitability" campaign in 2012? She doesn't belong anywhere near the White House - surely everybody on here, whether they are a Democrat/Republican/Independent/Other, agrees on that!

Maybe it's just me, though...

[MatthewZD]

However, his lack of experience along with Obama's is a potential problem, though of course it could be spun as a real "change" ticket. Also his pro-life position might be problematic with the base; though

Kaine isn't pro-life. This is a common misconception based on his gubernatorial race. Kilgore attacked him because of his anti death penalty stance. Kaine then asserted that by doing this Kilgore was attacking his Catholicism, and constantly implied that Kilgore was a bigot. He then tried to conceal the fact that he was pro choice because it would crush his whole strategy of portraying his opponent as a raving anti Catholic. The man is a weasel(aka a politician).

Article in today's Richmond newspaper.  It says Kaine personally opposes abortion but wouldn't criminalize it, and does support some late-term restrictions. 

An Obama/Kaine ticket would get hammered on the experience issue.  Yeah, Kaine was mayor of Richmond, but at the time the mayor was chosen by the city council from their members and Richmond was a weak mayor/strong city manager form of government.