Newsweek confirms Time Poll: Bush +11

[Hegemon]

AP story this morning:

Bush has opened up a double-digit lead in a second poll released after the wrap-up of the Republican National Convention. The Newsweek poll showed Bush at 52 percent, Democrat John Kerry at 41 percent and independent Ralph Nader at 3 percent.

Kerry had a 49-42 edge while Nader had 3 percent in a Newsweek poll released right after the Democratic National Convention.

The poll of 1,008 registered voters was taken Thursday and Friday and has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.


http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/5914894

[NHPolitico]

So half of it was pre-speech. Add another point or two to get to +13.

[JNB]

    Americans are such a stupid people. They give Clinton 65% approval ratings despite the fact he broke the law, because their wallets at the time were fat, now they give this moron higher ratings because  of cowards on boats and the fact Bush wrapped himself in the American flag at the convetion. I swear since the late 60s, Americans have been slowly losing the ability to think for themselves.

[agcatter]

Swiftboat vets were cowards?  Many were highly decorated.  That is a fact.

[NHPolitico]

No, because they want an ownership society, lower taxes, accountable schools, and security from Islamists.

[© tweed]

At least I still have the Red Sox!  And the Jets will be good this year!  And the Canes have a damn easy schedule after Friday!

...and...Edwards in 2008!  Start the campaign now.

[JNB]

 Cowards for being tools of the GOP and not saying it, cowards for making up lies about Kerrys service. I do not care what the bitter John O Neil says, he is a bitter angry man who wants to settle a score with Kerry, and he despite what he says, he is fully advancing the GOP agenda, of course he wont say that, because that would be the truth.

[Horus]

Wasn't Gore down by this much even closer to the election?

He was still able to come back, Kerry can too if he gets a consisten campaign going again.

[JNB]

No, because they want an ownership society, lower taxes, accountable schools, and security from Islamists.

  Your president wants an ownership society? Then stop pushing policies such as unrestrained free trade and uncontrolled immigration that drive down wages. As long as your president continues to support the4se polices(and I am under no illusions that Kerry would be any better on these issues) then ownership will continue to be further concentrated in the hands of the elite.

[agcatter]

He has a chance if he stays out of sight in Nantucket.  That will help his numbers.

[JNB]

Wasn't Gore down by this much even closer to the election?

He was still able to come back, Kerry can too if he gets a consisten campaign going again.

 

  In mid Sept, Gore was down 5-13 points in the polls. He slowly clawed his way back, though Mr. Bush was helped by lowballing expectations at the debates, also Mr. Gore did not focus on economic populism as he should have, and that helped cost him WVA.

[© tweed]

Wasn't Gore down by this much even closer to the election?

He was still able to come back, Kerry can too if he gets a consisten campaign going again.

Gore wouldn't have come as close as he did without the DUI story.

Assuming there is no second DUI-type story there is zero chance Kerry gets elected.

[zorkpolitics]

I'm still a bit amazed at the Time and Newsweek polls.
1) Time used a firm I never heard of and did most of their polling before Bush's speech, so could Bush be ahead even more?.
2) Newsweek polled registered voters, which all summer have shown a 2-4% edge to Kerry over likely voters, so would they find a bigger lead among likely voters?
3) And  what's happening at Rasmussen?  His daily tracking poll only shows a 5.5% lead by Bush.  But only 1/3 of his interviews were post Bush's speech.

But as they say Perception is Everything, and all across America the News and Papers will report Bush had a Great Convention and a solid lead based on these two polls.  So even people who paid no attention to the RNC will sense it was a success.

Looks like clear advantage Bush for now.   Can he keep the lead for 60 days?   Will the debates change anything?

Will Kerry go so negative he turns off voters?  

[agcatter]

Kerry needs to NOT go negative.  It makes a candidate NOT look presidential and Kerry needs to sell himself as presidential if he wants to win.

[ATFFL]

This is real bad for Kerry.  Newsweek has had a slight pull in his favor so far this cycle.  Their last poll, from 7-29 to 7-30, had Kerry +8, the highest for Kerry at that time, and the second highest he has ever done.

As for Rasmussen, his hard weighting is design to stamp out sudden large movements.  

I agree, Kerry cannot go negative.  Edwards must, but Kerry needs to realize that just having a last name that is not Bush is not going to win him the White House.  He needs details and specifics, he needs a positive message and he needs it yesterday.

[The Vorlon]

As for Rasmussen, his hard weighting is design to stamp out sudden large movements.  

Bush won last night's 1 day Bot sample by 6.2% FWIW

Given Bot-mans hard weight by party ID, Bush must be peeling off a lot of Dems from Kerry.

When Newsweek had Kerry +8, I said it was a junk poll.  When Newsweek has Bush +11, I say it's a junk poll.

Let's all come together in a monet of bipartisanship and agree... it's a junk poll

[zorkpolitics]

I agree they are junk polls,

But I think they willstill  be influential.  
To the average American, if both Time and Newsweek have a simialr result, they will be convinced its real.    They'll hear about these rsults on their local News, they'll read about them in their Morning paper

I think that means people will conclude that the RNC was a great success and improves Bush's approval rating.  

Will this affect the undecided voters?  Will it give them confidence to back the incumbent, Bush?  
 

[The Vorlon]

This is a breakout of party ID in the Newsweek poll:

It has more Republicans than Democrats.

I reweighted Newsweek to 39/35/26 which is the exact ratio that actually showed up and voted in the 2000 race which yields a +6 result for Bush

[agcatter]

As I suspected.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Nader is winning 9% if independents?  No wonder this poll looks so bad for Kerry.  

[The Vorlon]

Nader is winning 9% if independents?  No wonder this poll looks so bad for Kerry.  

Nader got 6% of Indys in 2000, so 2 months out 9% is not crazy.

The big shift is that Bush is now pretty consistently peeling off 15% of so of Democrats and is a tad up among Independants.

This is why Kerry has gone so negative in the last few days - he needs to resolidify his base.

Question?

Are the 15% of Dems voting Bush actually Dems Kerry can get back, or are the "Zell Miller: Dems who Kerry can't reach?

The fact that Kerry has gone hard Negative seems to indicate he thinks he can re-solidify them, it's a risk going that negative when you a bit down with the Independants.

Kerry is not running a good campaign.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I'd be much more worried about the breakdown of Independents than Democrats if I were Kerry.  Most of that 14% is southern Dems in states Kerry was never going to win anyway.

[The Vorlon]

I'd be much more worried about the breakdown of Independents than Democrats if I were Kerry.  Most of that 14% is southern Dems in states Kerry was never going to win anyway.

Kerry's issue is the economy & healthcare.

Memo to John Kerry:

Q: - "What's the price of tea in China...?

A: => It's the economy stupid !

Q: - "How many angels can dance on the head of a pin...?

A - => It's the economy stupid !

Q - "Why is the sky blue...?

A - => It's the economy stupid !

Class warfare, here we come

[agcatter]

I did notice this is a registered voter poll as opposed to likely voters.  Don't really know how that affects the "true" state of the race.

[ATFFL]

That party breakdown is not hideously bad.  Some firms think the breakdown is about 38-38-24.  

Is the party ID by registration or self-identification?  Self IDs will likely skew away from Dems for a while following the convention.