Newsweek confirms Time Poll: Bush +11

[agcatter]

Could just be at this particular post Republican convention period that an equal number of registered voters were more likely to identify as members of each party.  Just call it a result of the past 4 day Republican inforcommercial.  It resulted in a temporary spike in the number who "consider themselves" Republicans.

[The Vorlon]

That party breakdown is not hideously bad.  Some firms think the breakdown is about 38-38-24.  

Is the party ID by registration or self-identification?  Self IDs will likely skew away from Dems for a while following the convention.

There are two firms that track Party ID.

Gallup says the GOP actually has a 0.3% advantage over their last 40,000 interviews.

PEW says the Dems have about a 4% lead.

The two firms ask a marginally different question.

PEW just recently made a small adjustment to their sampling methodology to account for changes in response rates in various telephone exchanges (caller ID type stuff) which should (I think) bring the PEW numbers back in line with the Gallup Numbers.

The "true" breakout of party ID is an unknown.

We could debate it till the cows come home, and while there is actually a consensus on how to deal with the issue in polling, it would take far, far too long to explain and type out

If you use the PEW +4 weight then Bush is up 6%
If you go with an even split Bush is up 11%

Take your pick

[The Vorlon]

So half of it was pre-speech. Add another point or two to get to +13.

On day one of the poll bush won by 8
On day 2 of the poll he won by 16

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

More like Newsweek royally screwed up.

They have Bush up 3 in the safe Democrat states, and

     374  Republicans (plus or minus 6)
     303  Democrats (plus or minus 6)
     300  Independents (plus or minus 6)

[agcatter]

Ok, let's split the difference and say Bush up 7 or 8.  Doesn't matter.  The election is a long way out.

[Sibboleth]

More national poll bullsh**t... I started ignoring these a couple of months back...

N-O-V-E-M-B-E-R

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

More national poll bullsh**t... I started ignoring these a couple of months back...

N-O-V-E-M-B-E-R

That's the thing, wouldn't state polls tend to be even less reliable?

[Sibboleth]

More national poll bullsh**t... I started ignoring these a couple of months back...

N-O-V-E-M-B-E-R

That's the thing, wouldn't state polls tend to be even less reliable?

Often... but they are more interesting and usefull.

[AuH2O]

This is at least better than the polls showing Bush tied or getting a "negative bounce." Imagine the howling then.

Not that I put a lot of stock in polls, unless the good ones all agree on a clear advantage one way or the other.

[Friar]

Republicans outnumber democrats by 7% in this poll.

another point - military households are 42% to 58% non military households.

Both of these are way off.

Bush's lead is more likely 4 to 5 points. Something like 49 to 44. I said it last week. A week from now the race should be 49 to 44 in Bush's favor.

[agcatter]

thought it was Rep plus one

[ATFFL]

I have to admit, I first heard the party breakdown at +1 % Rep, not the 7% Vorlon has.  The only possible explanations are a slef ID highly skewed by the RNC or a bad sample.

[agcatter]

Never mind.  I just saw Vorlon's chart.  I thought he'd earlier said Rep +1.  My bad.

[ATFFL]

Never mind.  I just saw Vorlon's chart.  I thought he'd earlier said Rep +1.  My bad.

Yep, I remember that too.

[agcatter]

Given the partisan breakout - TOTAL junk poll.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

    Americans are such a stupid people. They give Clinton 65% approval ratings despite the fact he broke the law, because their wallets at the time were fat, now they give this moron higher ratings because  of cowards on boats and the fact Bush wrapped himself in the American flag at the convetion. I swear since the late 60s, Americans have been slowly losing the ability to think for themselves.

And you yourself give president Bush a hard time because you have failed to prepare yourself for the reality of a dynamic economy.  Hence, you find your current skillset no longer needed.

[JNB]

   I guess a large majority of Americans are not prepared for a dynamic economy. I find many people who are employed but wgho are worried about their jobs, and they are what is called "skilled labor", from traditional blue collar positions to people with BSEE and business degrees. I know people who have degrees in economics that can not find employment either. But Jmcfcst, I guess all these people you figure are "little people", and you do not care if blue collar positions are outsourced to China, white collar positions are outsourced to India and a flood of cheap labor is insourced to America. Get enough "little people" p***ed off, then there will be a sea change in the political landscape of the US.
 
    Lmcfcst, you and you ilk, many of you who call yourselves conservative are in the end nothing more than Social Darwinists, and unless there is an authoritarian govrenmnet in charge, Social Darwinism does not last for long.

[JNB]

   I guess a large majority of Americans are not prepared for a dynamic economy. I find many people who are employed but wgho are worried about their jobs, and they are what is called "skilled labor", from traditional blue collar positions to people with BSEE and business degrees. I know people who have degrees in economics that can not find employment either. But Jmcfcst, I guess all these people you figure are "little people", and you do not care if blue collar positions are outsourced to China, white collar positions are outsourced to India and a flood of cheap labor is insourced to America. Get enough "little people" p***ed off, then there will be a sea change in the political landscape of the US.
 
    Lmcfcst, you and you ilk, many of you who call yourselves conservative are in the end nothing more than Social Darwinists, and unless there is an authoritarian govrenmnet in charge, Social Darwinism does not last for long.

  Also note, I said American gave criminal Clinton high ratings because their wallets were fat, and yes, I think this was sad as well, Americans are helpless sheep when it comes to thinking. They get their talking points from either Limbaugh/WSJ or the alphabet networks and the NYT.

[dougrhess]

No, because they want an ownership society, lower taxes, accountable schools, and security from Islamists.

None of those things come from Bush, and the phrase "security from Islamists" makes no sense.

[??????????]

JNB has turned into another partisan troll.

[JNB]

JNB has turned into another partisan troll.

  How so? Because I call things like I see them? I said I am under no illusion that Kerry will be better on these issues, but I am sick of how so many self proclaimed conservatives claim uncontrolled immigration and "free" trade are good for this nation.

[A18]

Free trade is good. Uncontrolled immigration sucks.

[opebo]

Free trade is good. Uncontrolled immigration sucks.

Immigration is great!  We can all have houseboys, gardeners, and other <ahem> 'services'.

[Umengus]

Newsweek poll post RNC 2000

Bush-Gore: 49-38 (+11)
(Bush-Kerry in 2004: 52-41 (+11))


Newsweek poll post DNC 2000

Bush-Gore: 42-48 (+6)
(Bush-kerry in 2004: 42-49 (+7))



Hey stop copy/stick!

[CARLHAYDEN]

Don't believe anything Princeton Associates has to say.

This poll is politically motivated to show in the next poll that "kerry is coming back after being down 11 points."

In short, its a total phony!